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Trading volatility

It’s always fun to laugh, in hindsight, check out the last few posts from last year (hehehe)…

“I think it is extremely unlikely…the M1 M2 blend makes the intraday 80% move highly unlikely. Think about the types of events that would cause an intraday move like that. Presidential assassination, nuclear war, catastrophic west coast earthquake, 9/11 scale terrorist event. In all of these situations I see markets being halted.”

https://www.reddit.com/r/tradeXIV/comments/76cug1/how_likely_do_you_thin...

Ooops! laugh

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why trade these tracker etfs PA? They are known for extremely high tracking error and you could just as well accomplish your goal purchasing the actual options.

My guess VIX will return to <20 levels by Friday and <15 the following week. 

I would short futures (and do sometimes), but they trade is slightly too large of units for me. Maybe in 5yrs I’ll be BSD enough for that, you have to roll them, but better than a derivative of a derivative (VXX). Looked at options, but seemed like it was making things more complicated than needed.

it’s funny how these guys thought stock market circuit breakers meant that the VIX couldn’t spike enough to terminate the ETF. volatility and the equity markets are only mildly correlated. and if you suppress volatility and equity prices rise over time, the risk of a major decoupling is obvious. idiots.

Today’s price action is hilarious. Poor sheep. 

purealpha wrote:

I would short futures (and do sometimes), but they trade is slightly too large of units for me. Maybe in 5yrs I’ll be BSD enough for that, you have to roll them, but better than a derivative of a derivative (VXX). Looked at options, but seemed like it was making things more complicated than needed.

This doesn’t make sense. According to this thread you always make tons of money. How could you not be a BSD yet?

PistolPt wrote:

This doesn’t make sense. According to this thread you always make tons of money. How could you not be a BSD yet?

It makes sense. If you short 4 contracts on the way up to 40, you’re in for $100K, but then if VIX doubles to 80, you’re in for $200K, brokers increase margin requirements when **** hits the fan, suddenly that short is a lot of your account even if you are semi-BSD like me.

This strategy relies on financial strength, you want to keep the position under control as a responsible % of account, so that even if VIX went to 200 you could survive. 

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

PistolPt wrote:

This doesn’t make sense. According to this thread you always make tons of money. How could you not be a BSD yet?

PistolPt wrote:
My question too.

Already answered.

PistolPt wrote:
If you ever call him out on a losing position…

I’ve never had $1 of realized loss shorting VXX. You can simply look at the chart and verify dum dum, everyone who had the financial strength to hold, won. I post all my shorts here, and everyone knows I never sell until it’s at a nice gain, I’m still holding the last one.

Not complicated, you don’t have to keep posting the same braindead stuff. enlightened

#imwithPA

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

Shorted VIX futures (on the Trump tweet “trade war”), already closed that one out for an easy $1K gain in 2hrs. Still got the VXX short bobbing around…

done with this stupid thread and PA. “easy $1K gain”.

With all your victories you really should be a BSD now. 

So full of it. 

PistolPt wrote:

done with this stupid thread and PA. “easy $1K gain”.

With all your victories you really should be a BSD now. 

So full of it. 

You’re so jealous and pathetic.

Name the time and place, and put your money down, I’ll be happy to take it. Suggest 3rd party holds $250K from each, when it is seen the report matched my posts, you lose yours. Then I’ll be extra BSD! yes

Just go on Collective2 - start a system and do all your trades there. If you do well people will subscribe and you’ll make easy cash.

Only problem is all your trades have to be real-time, not after the fact.

PistolPt wrote:

Just go on Collective2 - start a system and do all your trades there. If you do well people will subscribe and you’ll make easy cash.

I don’t know what that is, and have no motivation to get into that. I make cash in markets, from being right. enlightened

PistolPt wrote:

Only problem is all your trades have to be real-time, not after the fact.

The vast majority of my posts are before the fact. I make a point to post here in real-time (see “just shorted vol again!” a dozen times on this thread). Not sure what you are talking about. The fact is, there are these people on every investment forum, that no matter how much info you post on your trades, will claim it never happened. They can’t comprehend that not everyone sucks, but we KNOW there are return-outliers, so why would it be shocking when we meet one online?

Quote:
Putting the volatility we have seen thus far this year into context, 2018 is setting up to be the seventh most volatile year in terms of 1% or more trading days since World War II. The six years with more 1% moves over this time period? 1974, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, and 2009. Gulp. It is also currently on track to be the fourth most volatile year in terms of 2% trading days over this same time period, with only 2002, 2008, and 2009 coming in higher.
 

my boy pa prob knocking it out of the park!

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

igor555 wrote:

Quote:
Putting the volatility we have seen thus far this year into context, 2018 is setting up to be the seventh most volatile year in terms of 1% or more trading days since World War II. The six years with more 1% moves over this time period? 1974, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, and 2009. Gulp. It is also currently on track to be the fourth most volatile year in terms of 2% trading days over this same time period, with only 2002, 2008, and 2009 coming in higher.
 

my boy pa prob knocking it out of the park!

Agreed, I bought 2000 shares of UVXY On monday at $15.20. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

Still sitting on my vol short, I went to sleep on it. Slowly vol comes down, now wait for contango to eat away at it some more, before releasing…

purealpha wrote:

Still sitting on my vol short, I went to sleep on it. Slowly vol comes down, now wait for contango to eat away at it some more, before releasing…

you’re short vol now?

I ain’t scared of ghosts, I’m keeping it on.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

CEO10K-DAY wrote:

you’re short vol now?

Short from many months ago when vol spiked (discussed earlier in thread).

There was the initial pain phase, where vol kept rising and unrealized losses, now in the green but greedy…decided to hold the short. Hopefully Trump won’t do anything too crazy going into midterms, this is my bet. But I want to take profits at least before Nov.

Chickened out and took gains on 1/3 of the short position.

Still think DC doesn’t have the political will for a catastrophic conflict with Beijing. But still, best to mildly risk-off.

wow shorted at all time high, well done

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

purealpha wrote:

Chickened out and took gains on 1/3 of the short position.

Still think DC doesn’t have the political will for a catastrophic conflict with Beijing. But still, best to mildly risk-off.

Markets rise as VIX rises. It’s a beautiful thing. 

Here. We. Go. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

Markets gone schizo! surprise

But I think this little “trade war” news cycle is coming to an end. Trump will back down over the coming weeks. Checking term structure, back in contango. 

purealpha wrote:

Markets gone schizo! surprise

But I think this little “trade war” news cycle is coming to an end. Trump will back down over the coming weeks. Checking term structure, back in contango. 

He’ll back down until they [new outlets] make fun of him for backing down. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

Okay, I’m the hell out of that vol short. American denial might hold, but Cold War pt2 is too real for me…

purealpha wrote:

Okay, I’m the hell out of that vol short. American denial might hold, but Cold War pt2 is too real for me…

So, you’re taking the other side now? I mean… why would you NOT want to buy VIX at 12?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

CEO10K-DAY wrote:

So, you’re taking the other side now? I mean… why would you NOT want to buy VIX at 12?

Naw, I’ve never been long vol, ever. Decay kills you if you don’t time a spike soon.

purealpha wrote:

Naw, I’ve never been long vol, ever. Decay kills you if you don’t time a spike soon.

Yeah, I umm… Totally agree.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.