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S&P500, what's a fair level?

Also, I keep entertaining this idea that Yellen does a double hike tomorrow. I mean this is the opportunity she has been dreaming of. She lowered rates and pumped up valuations, but that is a trap, how to raise rates and not crash the late-bull market? This is the perfect time, sneak a double hike in while the market is too blind to care. Then she has room to cut later when the recession comes. Right? Only thing is Trump might be offended, like she is trying to tank “his market”. 

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She also doesn’t want to tank the market before her term ends I think, which could mean slower rate hikes until her term is up then amageddon!

If some simple rifling is carved along the sides of a baby carrot, ive seen them go a quarter mile when shot out of a slingshot.

I bathe in Lake Superior Returns

<a href="http://www.bloombergprep.com/?utm_source=analystforum&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=logo&amp;utm_campaign=AF_CFA_2017" title="Learn more about Bloomberg Exam Prep" class="word-link" target="_blank">bloomberg</a> prophet wrote:

It’s around this time that analysts are usually busy trimming their overly optimistic corporate profit forecasts. Not this year. With the return of inflation and improving economic growth, they are instead upgrading their 2017 estimates for earnings around the world, according to Bloomberg News’ Blaise Robinson. Positive revisions are outnumbering negative ones, data compiled by Bloomberg show, which bodes well for equities in the coming months. The upgrades are uncommon, say JPMorgan Chase strategist say, especially since consensus projections at the start of the year were already elevated. First-quarter earnings are expected to rise 15 percent for European companies, 9 percent for those in the U.S. and 16 percent for Japanese firms. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch says a global earnings upgrade cycle has begun, with the number of profit upgrades outnumbering downgrades for the first time in six years. Previous instances of the earnings revision ratio rising above 1 have flagged a stock rally in the following 12 months on average, the firm says.

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

i see this as negative.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

Pretty strong rally. Most earnings reports beating estimates + talks of tax cuts and deregulation.

 

reading the prophet today, this was interesting

Quote:

Money managers are a net 20 percent underweight U.S. stocks, meaning they are more bearish than any time since January 2008, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of 207 investors with a total of $586 billion under management. That’s despite the major averages setting new records on an almost weekly basis. There are a few takeaways here, all supportive of equities. One is that the survey suggests there is lots of money that could be put to work in stocks. Another is that there aren’t a lot of natural sellers left, since anybody who wanted to sell has already done so. And finally, the most successful investors say that the time to buy is when everyone else is selling.

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

It’s weird, who could possibly think this is a good time to get long America? 

But there’s just so much fake money that has been created. If we get Trump tax cuts, that’s more fake money, to pump up corporate earnings, and bankrupt the USG further. P/E is 26X today, headed to 30X? None for me thanks!

^ Uh haven’t you been saying that for years? What has the S&P returned since you’ve made your short America call?

S&P hasn’t made as much as CSI300, shocking as it might sound there are other markets. wink 

Valuations just get more and more stretched, as they throw everything at it by selling out their future, and their society rots. 

^ you deflected the question. you were categorically wrong about your short America call, sorry bud.

^ Nope, review my threads, I spell it out in no uncertain terms so no online weasels can wiggle their way out. Long-game underweight overvalued DM and overweight undervalued EM (CSI300 especially). Bchad and Ohai said I was wrong, but nope they have been wrong! And the West’s overvaluation is only just starting to unwind, decades more coming kiddo. laugh

In this thread, on Sept 1, 2015, you said the fair price for the S&P is 1387. That day the S&P was at 1972, implying 30% downside was your S&P forecast. Instead, the S&P is up 25% since that day, and is currently 78% higher than your target price from that day.

And you call yourself a forecaster? That’s hilariously bad. I mean, a blind monkey throwing darts could do way better.

i think this market is overvalued. im just not a fan of shorting, or going all in or out. i cap my modifications by like bands, usually about +-20% at the most. At this point i keep about 15 to 20% cash/short term bonds. i would usually go all out. 

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/29/robert-shiller-vs-jeremy-siegel-on-stock-...

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

king_kong wrote:
In this thread, on Sept 1, 2015, you said the fair price for the S&P is 1387. That day the S&P was at 1972, implying 30% downside was your S&P forecast. Instead, the S&P is up 25% since that day…

A valuation and a forecast are two different things.

Alphie- How much more time do you want to *prove* you’re wrong?

#SeriousQ

hashtag wrote:

Alphie- How much more time do you want to *prove* you’re wrong?

#SeriousQ

It can’t be a “serious question,” because that would require you reading the thread.

Pulling my IBKR report from yesterday:

2016 = 23.7%

2017 YTD = 23.4%

So clearly there is no requirement to be long SPX (I have not been). It’s overvalued by my calc, so I stay away…went long China, HK, Brazil, and other stuff when they dipped. So I have already been proven correct. 

Welcome to investing 101, opportunity cost. enlightened

Who else is short S&P going into the September “meat grinder”? This month I didn’t roll over the puts against my short, I’ve got a good feeling about this; Kim, reversing QE, debt ceiling, natural disasters, central banks. Cmon, we need some chaos! 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-05/september-s-bringing-...

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

Looks like my dream of a Sept pullback is dead. crying

No Irma, no debt ceiling debacle, no Kim missiles. Meanwhile corporatist D.C. all working together to steal from the poor and give to the rich. Got a feeling they can now push thru a tax scam that will pump up CAPM. And a renewed health care scam.