Who wants some? Obviously nobody, which is why I’m at least interested in looking at it. Take US:DB, a return to the 1X book days would be a 200% return.
Cmon, no way they will pay the US $17B, that’s a joke. But if we’re at the start of a global recession, can they survive that? They are at a weak starting point. As Germany’s largest lender, are these guys too big to fail?
DB’s going to die. its days are numbered. either brexit or french election. they can’t raise private capital without diluting shareholders wildly. they have no way of growing equity until rates are much higher or European growth spikes and holds. Europe’s going to keep cutting rates which will further squeeze DB’s balance sheet. next financial crisis will probably center on DB’s death, wake and funeral.
Yeah, that makes sense. I’d like a global collapse, then speculate on these guys when they hit 0.1 P/B. I do have faith in the Germans, and don’t rule out them pulling off a magic trick. Goldman is still here, they should have imploded years ago.
^Their investment bank is run by Americans and Brits, not Germans. If it all goes to hell, they could just cut the investment bank loose and focus on being a regular commercial bank. Still that may be drastic.
Good point. Since it was that US investment bank segment that caused the CDO mess, they ought to just give that thing away to the US Justice Department, call it even. 
Update : sold calls, I’ll buy a small starter position if it drops to 0.2x B/V over the next 30 days, otherwise they can pay me for doing nothing. This has been a pretty big move down, for a settlement number they will certainly not pay.
Yeah well of course they are not paying that much, that’s almost as much as their entire market cap. Probably drop this down to like 6-7billion or something. Such a turd of a bank, i keep running settlement issues with them and their back office have all moved to india, just horrendous.
How much of their b/s is carried at fair-value?
^ Dunno, and really BV is made up anyhow. It’s more a short-term speculative play betting the market has overreacted. Bottom is holding above $12, now 28 days left on the options.
odd to value a stock based on b/v when you don’t know how they’ve marked their books.
Doesn’t really matter, it’s cheap, unless they are bankrupt. Let’s not get all accounting…
I agree. They don’t have to go bankrupt for book value to shrink dramatically. Just the nature of banks but it seems PA is doing a short term trade. I personally have no skill in judging trades
Merkel says they won’t bail out DB, so that means they probably will…bought a little more just for thrills.
they are bankrupt. they have a debt-to-market cap ratio of 100x and debt-to-equity of 40x. if they’ve undervalued their assets by 2.5%, they’re bankrupt and they can’t meaningfully raise any capital right now unless they do a 10:1 rights issue or something and completely dilute equity holders. the bank is effectively bankrupt right now, with current valuations based on forward earnings and the few impairments they are required to take. they have no money to restructure their business and actually achieve ongoing profitability.
bailout in within the next 12 months. when May triggers article 50, DB will be knocking on Merkel’s door, if they even last that long.
OH! Working on a project, and I look over at the screen, DB punched in the face!! 
dead bank walking
but…but… CEO sees very few risks.
Actually I think DB will start selling more assets soon.
DB is a cesspool. Know a ton of people looking for the exti out of that bank in NY.
DB bros, isnt DB the best lockdown cr@ppy bank around outside of Italy?