Who wants some?
The EWW ETF is approaching a 7yr low. Mexico, never gave two craps about them, not bullish on them, but if anything gets cheap enough it’s a buy. Is this all Trump-risk? Not really a high probability he gets elected, and his election is not going to impact their economy any more than any other country (yes, he may trigger a global recession). Is this short Mexico just a trendy trade that everyone is going to ditch on Nov 9th (peso down 13% over the last year)?
Not a bad idea at all. I like the built in favorable risk/reward. I agree it is probably mostly Trump related, however, there have been other aggravators. The finance minister recently resigned over this who botched Trump meets Pena fiasco. (possibly the cause of that major drop starting on the 7th). I would be interested in buying some calls if price is still hanging out near the lows next month. As it looks now, the calls would decay so much by the actual election that any profit I would stand to make would probably have been decayed away. So yea, possibly buy some calls in late October. Either that, or a put spread if I can get a good payout for risk.
…7 year low? well yes… but I’m seeing we have a little ways to go before we even break the lows of this year. It is not a levered ETF, but I’m assuming there is some yearly decay due to fees and tracking error. You have to account for that if debating a 7 year low.
If you believe oil prices are going higher or the dollar is going to weaken, EWW is a good place to be. Not the best place, but a good place.
I’m seeing the Mexican Bolsa IPC Index @ 24x P/E, not exactly cheap, but there’s the peso impact (this ETF tracks some MSCI-whatever bench). Put them on my watchlist and set some alarms. I want peak-fear/greed, still two months until the election, wait for everyone and their mother to pile on short pre-Trump, and/or more oil pain, then I might take the other side of that. Cheaper please!
Looked at options – etf is $46.75, say you want it 10% cheaper, sell 90 day puts @ $42, pays 2.4% to maybe buy it post-election (though very few people trading this crap). That’s semi-interesting, puts need to go a bit more expensive though please.
^^ wow, you really want this trade to play out… you said “please” (twice!)
^ I’m just a nice person, helping Mexico. 
Interesting idea on MX…
I’m short Mexican puts now, that expire pre-Trump. Looking to get paid to take possession just before election, then flip them when he fails (mega-bounce Nov9). Get 3% option premium, +15% bounce, plus 1% Dec dividend. Cha-ching!
…EWW reacting well to Trump’s faceplant. 
cool… up about 5% since you got in? 
^ Shorted Oct21 $48 puts @ $1.32, now they are $0.45…I guess I’ll wait till expiration as I’d still like to get assigned if Trump makes a comeback.
i got in a week ago on EWW AAAH YEAH!!!
Peso futures just opened up strong pre-debate. Another trade essentially won.
#nevermisses
Options on EWW are getting interesting again.
Starting to build up a new short position, Nov11 puts @ $47.
News wire – “short interest in EWW, ‘the Trump ETF’, is now 75% of the fund’s outstanding float”.
Is that even possible?? I guess yes, but can you even imagine the short squeeze? I went more long today, and willingness to double down if we get crazy low prices Friday or Monday. Decided that instead of leveraging my long SPX puts, with a US “buy the dip”, I’ll buy MX instead. If Trump wins everyone loses, and in the short-term perhaps MX loses a little more. But if Trump loses (more probable), MX bounces 10-15% vs US 2-3%. Probably nobody can follow what I just said, but it’s a totally awesome move. 
However since MX exports to the US make up 1/3 of their GDP, if Trump wins, and actually follows thru with destroying trade, that would hurt (to the extent it isn’t already priced in).
good one PA *high five*
I miss this macro stuff. I am living vicariously through your trades.
Oh there you are, we cross posted, I just asked you about this on your technical analysis thread. Yeah I’m all about the “global macro” thinking, I tried TA a number of times but couldn’t make any sense of it.
Update: boom, EWW up 4.7%, another easy win. I’ll wait till the Drumpfster officially loses then close it out…
Election day: welcome to the short squeeze biatches!! Can we see $55?? I’m up 8.9%, MX bouncing harder than US as expected, want to close this out tomorrow.
Should have taken profits on that. Who would have thunk we would be saying “president Trump”?? 