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Embraer (ERJ) five year holding period

nice gains, but feels like luck more than anything… on a one-year basis its pretty much break even and still underperformed on a relative basis. 

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klaudnine wrote:

nice gains, but feels like luck more than anything… on a one-year basis its pretty much break even and still underperformed on a relative basis. 

Lol, yes, 1) pure luck that my two largest recommendations (JOY & ERJ) were bought by majors within 12 months and 2) has the transaction closed yet, do you know the closing price?  If it doesn’t close does this mark the end of a trade that was clearly stated as a 5 year hold 1 year in?  The majors (Airbus and BA) have shown their hands.  My case was right, narrowbody regional is not dead, its the next step in industry growth and the E2’s begin ramping production in 2019 alongside the KC390.  Surely luck.  BA just randomly pulled ERJ’s name from a hat in the wake of industry consolidation, no underlying valuation involved.enlightened.

Just because we can’t tell when twilight begins and ends doesn’t mean there isn’t day and night, and that these things aren’t important.

Not hating on the call, I actually liked the investment case :> Only talking about the recent movement since it is not really related (i guess somewhat) to the original thesis. 

lol forget to switch accounts BS?

'A flute with no holes, is not a flute. And a donut with no hole, is a danish'

Fact Check wrote:

klaudnine wrote:

nice gains, but feels like luck more than anything… on a one-year basis its pretty much break even and still underperformed on a relative basis. 

Lol, yes, 1) pure luck that my two largest recommendations (JOY & ERJ) were bought by majors within 12 months and 2) has the transaction closed yet, do you know the closing price?  If it doesn’t close does this mark the end of a trade that was clearly stated as a 5 year hold 1 year in?  The majors (Airbus and BA) have shown their hands.  My case was right, narrowbody regional is not dead, its the next step in industry growth and the E2’s begin ramping production in 2019 alongside the KC390.  Surely luck.  BA just randomly pulled ERJ’s name from a hat in the wake of industry consolidation, no underlying valuation involved.enlightened.

think big – guys, we’re going after the majors!

Yayyywork wrote:

lol forget to switch accounts BS?

FALSE?

Just because we can’t tell when twilight begins and ends doesn’t mean there isn’t day and night, and that these things aren’t important.

lucky call lol

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

On October 24, 2016 the stock traded at a closing price of 19.93. I see it’s currently trading at 24.4.  That is an appreciation of 22%.

On January 26, 2017 I asked what was or currently is the reason the  valuation was depressed. The answer was that it’s a Brazilian firm.  The Brazilian index looks like it was at roughly 64,308 on October 24, 2016.  It is currently 76,336.  That is an appreciation of 19%.

Before our savior was elected, the S&P was trading at 2,126 in October. Now it’s at 2,683.  That is an appreciation of 26%.

Verdict…. BETA! 

^lulz. cant argue with that!  took an acqui to get it up to par.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

I would expect this kind of analysis from you two rubes.  Fortunately the completely subjective and arbitrary vague foreign concept of beta you’ve mentioned (sarcasm) is actually a quantitative metric that can be measured.  And regression shows its ranging between 0.09 and about a third (depending on frequency and period) for ERJ, showing extremely good beta adjusted return metrics as a result.  Lulz…

F*cking morons.

Also, 1 year into a 5 year holding period and this stock will either 1) be bought near $27 by BA or more likely, 2) continue to run much higher following some form of JV with BA as production ramps.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Nerdyblop wrote:

beta is a joke. just fyi.

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-how-warren-buffett-views-risk-2016-3

From can’t argue with that to its a joke.  While I agree, I’m not the one that brought it up.  FYI.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

$26.25, closing in on $27 minimum and up 31% from the call on Oct 24th.  I win, naysayers lose once again.  My holdings have slowly been funneling from ERJ +31% and CF +30% to UAN -25%, I’m averaged in at about $4.00 on that one but you have to be comfortable with K1’s.  I think UAN will be the best one yet.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Haha it’s been good call man. I think you need to take a deep breath 

ERJ bros. thank you BS im up 50k

Now up 37%

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

breaking news on it. brazil wants to keep it nationalized. saw it on cnbc so just to share. no idea why, didnt know this co was so popular. lol https://www.investors.com/news/brazils-defense-chief-draws-the-line-here...

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Old news. Surprised this surprised the market.

Hey Hamilton, have a holly jolly Christmas.

btw selling this and FCX when i accepted my job im sad

-and goog & RIG & nflx… damn that sucks

'A flute with no holes, is not a flute. And a donut with no hole, is a danish'

News rumor is BA agreed on $28 per share but govt still holding out over control issue.  

Ouch, the FCX too! 

Nostradamus strikes again: “I would not be surprised to see copper approaching $3.00 over the long term.” 2/5/16

Today: $3.23

https://www.analystforum.com/forums/investments/91347957

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

was a dang good call - if i wasnt forced to sell id be holding still and would certainly buy you a drink. You & Tommy had some solid discussion, all in all good post. Indexing is boring

'A flute with no holes, is not a flute. And a donut with no hole, is a danish'

Yayyywork wrote:

was a dang good call - if i wasnt forced to sell id be holding still and would certainly buy you a drink. You & Tommy had some solid discussion, all in all good post. Indexing is boring

You don’t own the Black Swan ETF?

rawraw wrote:

You don’t own the Black Swan ETF?

expense load on that bad boy was ridiculous 

'A flute with no holes, is not a flute. And a donut with no hole, is a danish'

I’ve not been working in public markets for awhile, so I feel like I’m missing something:

1) Initial post on 10/24/2016, price $20.00

2) Recent close: ~$25.

So, that is a 25% return. SPY did 27% with way less vol. Again, maybe it is due to sector coverage, as I’ve never covered industrials, but it just seems like an “ok” pick. Not hating, just curious why everyone is so happy about 25% gains over 15 months in this market. Anyone care to explain why this pick is impressive? Happy for all those who made/are making money!

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

brain_wash_your_face wrote:

I’ve not been working in public markets for awhile, so I feel like I’m missing something:

1) Initial post on 10/24/2016, price $20.00

2) Recent close: ~$25.

So, that is a 25% return. SPY did 27% with way less vol. Again, maybe it is due to sector coverage, as I’ve never covered industrials, but it just seems like an “ok” pick. Not hating, just curious why everyone is so happy about 25% gains over 15 months in this market. Anyone care to explain why this pick is impressive? Happy for all those who made/are making money!

Two days ago was at >30% return, if  deal is consummated, murmur price is $28 (+40%) volatility hasn’t been that high, beta <0.5.  

To Fact Check’s point, this is not the exit point yet, and:

Fact Check wrote:

The majors (Airbus and BA) have shown their hands.  The case was right, narrowbody regional is not dead, its the next step in industry growth and the E2’s begin ramping production in 2019 alongside the KC390.  …BA just randomly pulled ERJ’s name from a hat in the wake of industry consolidation, no underlying valuation involved.enlightened.

Which bodes well for forward returns if you buy the case which BA/AIR have just validated by transacting into the space.  So you either have forced exit at $28 within a year (+40%) or hold for two years and realize the upside as these new models ramp and a service / sales JV is likely formed with BA.  Also this comes on the heals of >30% short term calls on JOY and CF.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Okay, that is going too far.  You can’t quote yourself to prove a point hahahahaha

you could argue that while the S&P 500 made more than ERJ over that time period with less vol, the return was harder to come by as it relied on parts of the market getting crazy overvalued (e.g. semis, big tech, industrials, materials). and it just feels better owning something at 10x trailing versus the broad market at 20x earnings hoping it’ll reach 24x earnings.

semis and big tech overvalued? the ones that provide the best value are in these two spaces imo. they’ve appreciated a lot, but so have their earnings/fcf, and guidance.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

If you just invested in SPY you would’ve crushed the ****tt black swan ETF

edit: mla beat me to it 

rawraw wrote:

Okay, that is going too far.  You can’t quote yourself to prove a point hahahahaha

i know… glad BS is back - only guy that can pull this off without it being completely ridiculous 

'A flute with no holes, is not a flute. And a donut with no hole, is a danish'