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Snap Chat IPO

Nerdyblop wrote:

 I’m seeing ads for like gay dating. 

Nerdyblop wrote:

I’m straight mother ****ers lol

Nerdyblop wrote:

 Also the quality of the ads is very good and funn

In other news, I went browsing on Snapchat the other day.  I honestly never looked at anything besides what my friends post and what is sent to me.  I was amazed at the beauty of the news content from the old school media players.  I can really see a future where they are a media distribution platform.  No idea the likelihood of it, but the content was legit.

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the targeting of the ads is the main issue. which i imagine should be an easy fix. i saw an airline ad for singapore just today. the last time i took a plane, was when i went to chicago 3 years ago. its all ****ed up.

in any case, advertisers are paying top dollar despite this failure so i imagine they will only pay more once they fix this and get better.

also old media invested in snapchat, in addition they are creating content for snapchat where they take the upfront costs and they share ad revenue with snapchat.

also i just did a test run. i saw 10x snaps before i saw an ad. they can easily cut this to 2x, and create organic revenue.  they also decrease the frequency of the ads, as  you use it more on 1 sitting.

they are currently expecting 800m in 2017 and 2b in 2018. i believe it is easily doable. i would essentially buy it at 7x revenue or $14b or 12 bucks/share.i also think once they generate enough revenue, anything above a certain point is pure profit.

http://fortune.com/2017/07/10/snapchat-snap-stock-ipo-lock-up/

as for the lock up, i dont really care if people sell their shares, i care more about whether these guys are going to further dilute the shares through issuance in the future, and this will be a function of growth.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/17/5-signs-snap-incs-high-growth-...

here are the growth issues. people are worried about daily user growth, and not focusing on their ability to monetize the current base which imo they can easily create their growth through.

i cant speak for facebook’s instagram, but i avoid that **** like the plague cuz my parents and older relatives are on it.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Tommy83 wrote:

Stocks like this can have a snowball effect as they go lower. This company burns millions of dollars of cash every single day. They can only fund these losses w/ dilutive share issuance, which works great when your stock valuation is very high. The stock valuation is still really high in my opinion, but when the stock goes lower it becomes even more dilutive to issue new shares. It is a real house of cards. Once the market loses faith they are screwed b/c the high stock valuation is their only source of cash, which is precious to them considering their massive losses. It is all about the market’s perception of growth – once that erodes Snap is done. They still have plenty of cash so liquidity isn’t a concern right now but it will be again at some point.

I don’t think this is a stock where you can buy the dip. If this goes to single digits, it has real problems. Debt capital will not be available to them, only equity and if it goes lower it just gets worse for them. They can try to preserve cash/liquidity but that normally means less growth and hence lower valuations.

All you have to do is look at the cash flow statement. It ain’t pretty.

Tried to short it 2 weeks ago and was told “Shares of SNAP currently not available to short”. Yikes.

the euphoria stage is long over and now it’s back to reality. wouldn’t touch it with a ten-foot pole.

ohai wrote:

This thing will be $15 before you know it…

$15.33 at the moment. There is still time for me to be wrong of course.

“The aliens on Mars cloned Hillary Clinton.” - Turd Furgeson

i dont know a single person that owns SNAP stock.

unless they are lying lol

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

down to $13.81… just above the IPO price of $13.65. What you feeling on this?

^I’m pretty sure $17 was the IPO price.

Several recent public tech/fad companies like fitbit, gopro saw their share prices go significantly below the IPO price. Snap is headed to single digits I think.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

nerdy get the cash ready homeboy

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

haha ok ok ok. it hasnt hit $12, but im backing out, i cant lower myself to buy an unprofitable company. but mark my words, this company will go all the way up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2ak_oBeC-I

12 is appropriate price though.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

YOLO bruh

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

im all about that. im not a ***** bro. my principles are preventing me. lol

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Well, if people did not buy stock of unprofitable companies, they would not buy AMZN, TSLA, or others also. SNAP is unprofitable, but it is also in a competitive field with fickle users and no real advantage, and it is run by dickweeds.

“The aliens on Mars cloned Hillary Clinton.” - Turd Furgeson

tsla is still unprofitable.

amzn is actualy really profitable already. its just really overvalued. like 200x earnings. or 50x fcf

and i wouldnt buy them either.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

ohai wrote:

Well, if people did not buy stock of unprofitable companies, they would not buy AMZN, TSLA, or others also. SNAP is unprofitable, but it is also in a competitive field with fickle users and no real advantage, and it is run by dickweeds.

It is all about the cash flows with Amazon. There are a ton of non-cash charges flowing through their income statement that make them look less profitable. They generated $10B of FCF in 2016 and that growth rate has been very impressive. The valuation is still pretty rich at >20x EV/NTM EBITDA but its actually an investable company that generates free cash flow. I don’t get the Whole Foods thing but it is a legitimate investment and different than SNAP and TSLA.

I agree on Tesla – I am short if anything but at least they offer the world a productive product. SNAP is just some stupid company that burns tons of money. There will probably be a vicious short squeeze on SNAP at some point driving it higher but it is going lower long-term.

folks compare SNAP to FB when it went public but what folks are forgetting is that FB was generating very nice FCF while snap is burning thru cash

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

Tommy83 wrote:

ohai wrote:

Well, if people did not buy stock of unprofitable companies, they would not buy AMZN, TSLA, or others also. SNAP is unprofitable, but it is also in a competitive field with fickle users and no real advantage, and it is run by dickweeds.

It is all about the cash flows with Amazon. There are a ton of non-cash charges flowing through their income statement that make them look less profitable. They generated $10B of FCF in 2016 and that growth rate has been very impressive. The valuation is still pretty rich at >20x EV/NTM EBITDA but its actually an investable company that generates free cash flow. I don’t get the Whole Foods thing but it is a legitimate investment and different than SNAP and TSLA.

I agree on Tesla – I am short if anything but at least they offer the world a productive product. SNAP is just some stupid company that burns tons of money. There will probably be a vicious short squeeze on SNAP at some point driving it higher but it is going lower long-term.

amaozn capex was 7.4bil last year and its FCF was over 9BIL wowzers

Operating Cash Flow USD Mil
1,405
1,697
3,293
3,495
3,903
4,180
5,475
6,842
11,920
16,443
16,806

 

Cap Spending USD Mil
-224
-333
-373
-979
-1,811
-3,785
-3,444
-4,893
-4,589
-6,737
-7,419

 

Free Cash Flow USD Mil
1,181
1,364
2,920
2,516
2,092
395
2,031
1,949
7,331
9,706
9,387

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

Fb was 8 years old.  Snapchat was 6 years old. Snapchat is doubling revenue every year. Expecting 2b next year and prolly 4b after. If anything snap chat had an early ipo

igor555 wrote:

folks compare SNAP to FB when it went public but what folks are forgetting is that FB was generating very nice FCF while snap is burning thru cash

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

I hate ebitda.****ty proxy. But I had no idea amzn is 20x that’s relatively cheap

Tommy83 wrote:

ohai wrote:

Well, if people did not buy stock of unprofitable companies, they would not buy AMZN, TSLA, or others also. SNAP is unprofitable, but it is also in a competitive field with fickle users and no real advantage, and it is run by dickweeds.

It is all about the cash flows with Amazon. There are a ton of non-cash charges flowing through their income statement that make them look less profitable. They generated $10B of FCF in 2016 and that growth rate has been very impressive. The valuation is still pretty rich at >20x EV/NTM EBITDA but its actually an investable company that generates free cash flow. I don’t get the Whole Foods thing but it is a legitimate investment and different than SNAP and TSLA.

I agree on Tesla – I am short if anything but at least they offer the world a productive product. SNAP is just some stupid company that burns tons of money. There will probably be a vicious short squeeze on SNAP at some point driving it higher but it is going lower long-term.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Nerdyblop wrote:

Fb was 8 years old.  Snapchat was 6 years old. Snapchat is doubling revenue every year. Expecting 2b next year and prolly 4b after. If anything snap chat had an early ipo

igor555 wrote:

folks compare SNAP to FB when it went public but what folks are forgetting is that FB was generating very nice FCF while snap is burning thru cash

doubling revenue dont mean jack when your costs are growing faster.

btw i read today that twitter added 0 new accounts last month, thats nuts

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

dude twitter is good for stocks though try it. $SNAP. watch yourself get flooded with latest news.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

almost buy time

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

Wow, I actually stopped checking and it’s below $13 now. 

“The aliens on Mars cloned Hillary Clinton.” - Turd Furgeson

igor555 wrote:

almost buy time

why you going to buy it? Isnt Snap dead?

nerdy gonna buy 10k at 12

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

I wouldn’t be surprised if this company gets bought by Facebook or Google within the next couple of years. Facebook pretty much copies snap, and Snap seems like the kind of company Google would because because they could use each other for advertising help/social media.

^lotta articles have been coming out about this.

supposedly google was going to buy them out for 30b

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

why would FB buy them, fb pretty much copied what they needed.

someone like google might might them but that can wait till its almost bankrupt to get them cheap.

nerdy when u loading up?

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

once they;re profitable lol. and when they stop issuing bull**** shares. lol

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.