A lot getting creamed. Historically trading cheap, but so is their growth mostly due to amzn. how to choose which ones will live and which will die?
BAT would destroy softlines retail. I would steer clear for now…
The border tax effect on retailers might be overestimated, at least in the long run, where currency adjustments will supposedly cancel out the effects of the tax on importers/subsidy to exporters. There is a (somewhat simplified) write up below with some examples.
https://taxfoundation.org/exchange-rates-and-border-adjustment/
There will most definitely be some volatility in the short run, before exchange rates settle, and due to other unforeseen effects. However, any rush to sell retail stocks if the border tax is announced might be a buying opportunity, if the effects are shown to be overstated.
Yes, but many are skeptical that the dollar won’t strengthen as quickly or to the level expected. Also, a lot of these softline retailers import 80-100% of their products. The BAT would effectively increase their effective tax rates to 80-100%…
To be fair isthereany is saying the same thing a lot of sell side reports are saying. But I personally think it is a buying opp for the sector and a leading indicator for an overall slowdown in mkt. These stocks are getting killed from shitty guidance alone. Add bat to the mix, definitely some of these guys are going to die. Which means that the strongest operators with nimbler operations will benefit from the dead ones. So my question is, how do you find the best operators in the business or the ones that will survive? Like what metrics show the best competitors.
I’m going to pull the trigger on some LB next week… hate buying into a cyclical stock at market highs though.
I bought Nike on the cheap back in November. Made some decent coin from it.
Got a small position in M @32.
If you were talking about Foot Locker earlier, well…