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ROKU

Man, this recent IPO is on a tear (up 100% over last week). I do have to say that I have Roku built into my TV and my experience has been way better than Firestick. That could be personal preference, but I just feel the interface is much better and since it is built into the TV it is really like an OS for your various TV lines (cable, games, prime, netflix, hulu, HBO, etc.) which is superior to the standard aux/input you normally have on controllers. OS for the TV…hmmm, I may have to pick up some of this.

Obvious buyout candidate for any cash laden tech company.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

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not a fan of it as an investment or as a customer. 3 years ago i compared fire vs roku. i bought both, and preferred fire. i just gave the roku to someone else. back then you couldnt talk to the roku though so i dont know how its change since then.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

I think the change is that Roku is implemented directly into the TV. So, my TV currently has Roku preloaded on it (no wires, no use of HDMI input) and updates the software automatically. I have no idea what the separate box is like, but my understanding is the company is looking to move away from that.

Basically, there is a market for having a TV specific OS with an easily usable interface. Of course other companies could compete and likely beat Roku there, but it is such a nascent market that there is something to be said for first mover advantage.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

wouldn’t put too much in this one, could lose your shirt and never recover from it. lol

klaudnine wrote:

wouldn’t put too much in this one, could lose your shirt and never recover from it. lol

+1.

“Everyone is high on Roku now following its IPO, particularly after a big licensing deal with television manufacturer Philips PHG, +0.49% . However, there isn’t a lot that makes Roku special. Eventually there will be many OTT hardware providers, the same way there were plenty of companies making VCRs in the 1980s and DVD players in the 2000s. Proponents will say Roku Channel is a unique spin on streaming, putting advertisements on licensed content and splitting that with studios, and that Roku’s open platform will help it quickly partner with emerging content creators. But neither element seems to have a wide moat in a digital age, particularly when everyone sees the big opportunity here.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-winners-and-3-losers-in-the-streaming-video-wars-of-2018-2017-11-16

RIP bchad

^Well, that article post misses the point and honestly sounds like something regurgitated. Hardware will clearly be commoditized. Software is the potential differentiator. KindleFire sucked to navigate, in my opinion.

Anyway, I will take a flyer on this. Everyone on here also told me to avoid ABX, BABA and REV when I posted about them and I made a killing on all three. REV and ABX were both value plays and BABA was a growth play (focused on web services). This one is a small player in a rapidly growing market. Even if they lose market share and the overall market grows they could come out ok. I like that they are singularly focused and don’t have to worry about content creation like AMZN or even video console manufacturers (which many use for streaming). That said, I don’t usually buy recent IPOs and the short public operating history means there is not much to go on.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

you made money on a abx and revlon? dafuq?! 

also baba, i study a lot of 13fs. lotta smart ppl bought it.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Yep, you were in a lot of these threads:

Bought Aug 7, 2015 ABX: https://www.analystforum.com/forums/investments/91344716?page=3

Bought Aug 12, 2016, BABA: https://www.analystforum.com/forums/investments/91353443

Bought Aug 4, 2017 REV: https://www.analystforum.com/forums/investments/91360422

Anyway, will think hard on Roku.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

out of the 3 baba is a solid growth pick. jack ma is a solid dude, i love his interviews, very concise and knowledgable though he speaks in broken english. a fun fact, baba is 10x the size of paypal, another fan fact, it is a better model than amazon, less capex intensive. abx, seems like its improving but in commoditized biz, but  def a value play. rev was ****ty before, and even ****tier now. imo. i hope u are out of it.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

I mean, you were against BABA when I bought it at at $90 in the old thread and you like it now at nearly $190? I’m just trying to keep it real in here. Nobody else ever posts any interesting stocks for discussion because I assume they all just buy SPY and are hypocrites managing other people’s money and buy bluechip only, haha. I get it. ABX when I bought it, per the thread, was around $7 and I sold it around $21. That was the best of the three for sure (and in the thread I said the risk means its has to be a 2-3 bagger to justify it).

Lesson: sometimes you don’t have to love the company to like the stock.

Edit: Ok, now time to log off homies.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

abx under 10 again is a good trade imo

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

not bashing at all, i actually respect it, just saying my opinion. you should actually post more imo. ppl like it.

still not a buyer of baba, because its fairly new. but i have been following it and i like it more now. price may have doubled, but earnings and cash flow tripled.  so more historical profitability, amazing growth with still great runway, and i understand its business model more. best growth in the industry imo. so for its growth, its price is great value.

i wouldnt exactly call this bearish:

“for me personally it’s too expensive. but historically, it is trading on the cheaper side. relative to amazon, its cheap even when you take its smaller growth prospects. have you done work on their business? care to share?”

abx i didnt comment cuz precious metals. lol. anyways thx for throwback. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa8a3q-QH10&t=3449s

^best youtube video i found.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

I’m a little whacky with the streaming devices. I own a Roku, Chromecast, Xbox, firestick, and apple TV not to mention I have a Vizio TV in the bedroom with integrated apps but I find it clunky. Don’t own cable but I have Hulu TV, Netflix, and Amazon prime. Pretty much always stream through chrome cast because I control everything directly from my phone- not to mention I can walk between rooms and fling from one TV to the next with ease or even continue watching the football game exactly where it left off on the TV back to my phone when I need to go into the kitchen and prepare a meal etc.

Oh no, you don't want to mess with a guy thats riding on a buffalo.

Quote:
Nobody else ever posts any interesting stocks for discussion because I assume they all just buy SPY and are hypocrites managing other people’s money and buy bluechip only, haha. 

Many of us are prohibited from posting investment ideas due to our jobs.  I’m not restricted anymore, but this is the first time since college that this is the case 

Agreed. Too much competition. Fragmented space. Nothing uniquely proprietary that is really going to set it a part IMHO. 

Up 31% in 10 days. Sup

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

rawraw wrote:

Quote:
Nobody else ever posts any interesting stocks for discussion because I assume they all just buy SPY and are hypocrites managing other people’s money and buy bluechip only, haha. 

Many of us are prohibited from posting investment ideas due to our jobs.  I’m not restricted anymore, but this is the first time since college that this is the case 

Agreed, I’m no longer at an investment manager so I can trade PA finally. Still, would expect more on a forum with CFA focus. 

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

I agree. I’ll try to share the banks I’m looking at once I’m back at work and funded up my brokerage account 

Up 40% now. Short interest is big on ROKU (44% of public float), interesting. Valuation shorts…that’s a tough business. 20% of new smart TVs have ROKU operating system installed. As stated above, hardware is irrelevant.

This is where continuing to hold requires discipline.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

With such a massive short, that stock can be a home run if stuff goes right. Good luck! 

Down 20% after-hours. Earnings beat, but Q1 guidance fell short. 

Glad I sold on the way up.

Hedge funds making a killing on their massive short positions.

Fair?

Born Yesterday wrote:

Glad I sold on the way up.

If true, good for you! Conspicuously absent earlier in the thread though, right? 

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

Being new to AF with my meager 10 AF points should be a pass for being late to the convo?

You late fool and you can’t say convo

Got it. Thanks.

Damn, 7 bagger.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

lol congrats. but what the actual ****. the revenue is literally 742m. why in the hell is it worth $16b. and its losing money. this market is nutz.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Last quarter revenue was up 59% YoY and per user revenue is growing. They have something like 30M users averaging 3 hours per day usage. Cord cutting is a revolution in how people watch TV and Roku is the OS/browser that is leading the pack. They are content agnostic and offer hundreds, maybe thousands, of apps for streaming. I don’t normally quote myself, but from earlier in this thread:

brain_wash_your_face wrote:

I think the change is that Roku is implemented directly into the TV. So, my TV currently has Roku preloaded on it (no wires, no use of HDMI input) and updates the software automatically. 

Basically, there is a market for having a TV specific OS with an easily usable interface. Of course other companies could compete and likely beat Roku there, but it is such a nascent market that there is something to be said for first mover advantage.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

right but you get what i am saying right. how do we justify a 16b valuation?

to get a 16x valuation, you need 1b in profits growing at least at the rate of inflation. 

lets say this is an above average business with 20% net margins. meaning you need 5b in sales.

you need it to grow 60% year for the next 4 years to justify that price.

at 30%, 8 years.

at 15%, 14 years.

at 7.5%, 26 years.

at least for me, thats a tall order to fill. 

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Roku is a terrible platform. Amazon will take them out enlightened

When I was young I was called a rugged individualist. When I was in my fifties I was considered eccentric. Here I am doing and saying the same things I did then and I'm labeled senile.

This is a high growth business. I’ll write more later but suffice to say this business has serious operating leverage. They do not create content. They take a small share streaming fees as a platform service provider. When it went public low margin device sales made up the majority of revenue, now platform revenue is the driver. And, revenue is actually accelerating. It was like 39% growth a few quarter ago and now it is 59% yoy. It is the leading OS for smart TVs. Something like 30% of TVs have Roku installed. Amazon came into the platform space in like 2017 but they still only have about half that. Sure, Amazon could eventually beat out Roku…or they could buy them. Last quarter 70% more time was spend streaming on Roku than a year prior compared to 40% growth in users. As people get used to using the system it makes it stickier. I look out my window and see two giant skyscrapers built by Comcast. Think they may be interested in something like this?

Point is, the assumptions you list above are not out of the question given the nature of the business and acquisitions in the nearer term is a not unlikely exit.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind