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2018 Ideas

Matt Likes Analysis wrote:

the case for GE is simple. just try and justify BA’s valuation and GE’s valuation at the same time. GE comes out the winner no matter how you look at it. BA’s valuation makes me wanna retch.

Nice pair trade right there.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

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Matt Likes Analysis wrote:

the case for GE is simple. just try and justify BA’s valuation and GE’s valuation at the same time. GE comes out the winner no matter how you look at it. BA’s valuation makes me wanna retch.

BA and GE not really that comparable tho… Aviation is a part of GE.. but not a majority part. On some metrics BA doesn’t look that stretched vs GE tbh. 

I’m in if craters (got a number in mind based on what I see and will post if I buy) or I see a really good quantitative sotp analysis.

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

igor555 wrote:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ge-posts-10-billion-loss-123323772.html

Meh. I was on the call.  SEC investigates a lot.  This is CNBC bobble head analysis.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

I like International Paper. International Paper is good at making Boxes and Paper and they need to focus on it without getting too niche about some of what they do. The paper used to make Consumer Packaging items (e.g. cups, plates, buckets for chicken, etc..) wasn’t really their niche. So, selling off their Consumer Packaging division to Graphic Packaging was a smart move as Graphic Packaging has better resources. Consumer Packaging was their least profitable segment and it was difficult to meet cash flow goals. Their Industrial Packaging (IPG) business is where they need to continue putting their focus, specifically in Europe. Right now they aren’t allowed to expand their IPG segment anymore in the US because of how large they are. If they do then they will be required to sell off other parts of their business. They’re also starting to realize their synergies from their acquisition of Weyerhauser which could push their EPS to outperforming analyst expectations. The stock price is currently at $64.67 and could possibly get to $75-$80 over the next year.

only 15%???? PASS!

IP isn’t the kind of company where you should expect high returns in one year.

thanatos0320 wrote:

IP isn’t the kind of company where you should expect high returns in one year.

Yeah but you failed to even consider the supply part of the equation.  Also for S&P like returns I might as well buy the S&P.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Black Swan wrote:

thanatos0320 wrote:

IP isn’t the kind of company where you should expect high returns in one year.

Yeah but you failed to even consider the supply part of the equation.  Also for S&P like returns I might as well buy the S&P.

#failed.

Got some HBI at 21.82, small position. 

Not seeing anything great at the moment… been taking a beating these last few days.

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

FIZZ

I gender Identify as a Chair. People say to me that I’m ****ing retarded but I don’t care, I’m beautiful. If you can’t accept me you’re a Furniturephobe and need to check your furniture privilege. Thank you for being so understanding.

GE might leave the Dow BS. Where you @ brother?

AbrahamIsaac wrote:

GE might leave the Dow BS. Where you @ brother?

Saw that, we’ll see.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Picked up WATT on the recent dip. Recently got FCC approval for their zero contact wireless charging. Looks promising but we’ll see.

Oh no, you don't want to mess with a guy thats riding on a buffalo.

Adding A Rated UPS at 3.48% indicated dividend yield and 21% discount since 1/26

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Same author, I’m calling it a bottom…

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Black Swan wrote:

GE, HTZ (feel good about these two), CSTM (still developing view), probably need a chem name but none jumping to mind and KTOS (intriguing low conviction gamble).  Add X, NUE and AKS for good measure.

Yah heard it here first guys.  I recognize they’re still lagging S&P but in two quarters these names will be white hot.  For what its worth, avoid AKS, I’ve since cooled on that name given its price neutral strategy.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

On GE, what do you all think of Nelson Peltz’s involvement? He’s expressed concerns about this type of opacity from pre-GFC days.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

Originally his white papers were for a turnaround largely keeping the company intact.  I’m interested in what they do here.  For me, I see this insurance charge as now behind them with better transparency (and they’re now shrinking the finance arm further), long term service agreements have now been placed under better accounting (with last year’s restatement) and restructuring is well underway.  At this point I’m just buying based on my own views regarding underlying asset values.

One thing that I think is interesting is that Buffett wants a major deal and has gobs of cash.  GE has great industrial assets and would be a marquee name in the portfolio and BRK has the finance chops to in-house the entire finance arm there and A) manage the problem while B) creating major synergies.  They’ve owned it before but now its at a better price so I’m really intrigued that they might end up taking a big swing at this.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Black Swan wrote:

Same author, I’m calling it a bottom…

This is quite funny. Reminds me of the pitch books predicting $200 oil that energy guys were running around with in July 2008…only the opposite.

GE is just tough to analyze.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

mortgage insurers took a hit with the FNMA/ACGL  news. i still think they are great businesses.

would love to pick up ESNT NMIH. anyone else  looked into these?

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

Tempted to add GE at today’s price.

Tactics wrote:

Tempted to add GE at today’s price.

Seems to be a popular idea, several of my friends have been loading up at $12 and $13 range.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

are you calling a bottom>!?!!>!>!

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

igor555 wrote:

are you calling a bottom>!?!!>!>!

Yes, although I bought my largest chunk at $15.05 as a disclaimer.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Black Swan wrote:

One thing that I think is interesting is that Buffett wants a major deal and has gobs of cash.  GE has great industrial assets and would be a marquee name in the portfolio and BRK has the finance chops to in-house the entire finance arm there and A) manage the problem while B) creating major synergies.  They’ve owned it before but now its at a better price so I’m really intrigued that they might end up taking a big swing at this.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/ge-jumps-most-in-two-...

General Electric Co. jumped the most in two years amid speculation that Warren Buffett will buy a stake in the beleaguered manufacturer.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Black Swan wrote:

Black Swan wrote:

One thing that I think is interesting is that Buffett wants a major deal and has gobs of cash.  GE has great industrial assets and would be a marquee name in the portfolio and BRK has the finance chops to in-house the entire finance arm there and A) manage the problem while B) creating major synergies.  They’ve owned it before but now its at a better price so I’m really intrigued that they might end up taking a big swing at this.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/ge-jumps-most-in-two-...

General Electric Co. jumped the most in two years amid speculation that Warren Buffett will buy a stake in the beleaguered manufacturer.

Yes, good call. However, I own some from a week or two ago in the $14s and am still at a loss. I’m a long-term investor, but this is getting to be a bit much. I’ve already bled 5% even after today, not sure how much more I can takecheeky

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

would buffet just get the preferreds and a bunch of warrants instead of equity

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

igor555 wrote:

would buffet just get the preferreds and a bunch of warrants instead of equity

Possibly, but I think he’d go straight common equity.  The credit risk is not so bad to require the layer of protection and BRK is sitting on a record cash heap.  They could literally buy the entirety of GE out of YE cash on hand and still have $214B of untouched marketable securities left over.  So I think what they’re most interested in is a large marquee asset they can put a ton of cash into at a great valuation…

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017