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2018 Ideas

GE at 5 bucks  could be tempting

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

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lol ish cray. i still remember like it was yesterday, when they were like next year, 4 sure, $3 eps or was it $2. my goodnesss. beautiful how an iconic company is reduced to shreds by the market!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Great call BS with GE you monkey 

You win some, you lose some, no one is perfect.

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

Recap:

I was obviously very wrong on GE, but in good company with Icahn.  Anyhow, good learning experience.  Still bullish, still have the same line of thought, was obviously way off on the trajectory to get there and the valuation.  Only thing that’s majorly changed for me is my cost basis, which is now at a nine handle.  But yes, I was wrong.  I’ll probably be right about the recovery and salvage things come out on top for my position, but definitely poorly traded, way too early, misunderstood the downside.

BHP did well, CSTM/GLEN did not.

TSLA (different thread), I nailed the crap out of that call (~$250 called bottom to $350).

ERJ is looking pretty solid and holding up very well, the second half of the holding period looks set to go.  BA knows what they’re doing and timed their investment a little better than mine (again, early) but, I recommended it at ~$20.50 and it’s at $21.28 despite major EM pain amid overall down market with its strongest cash flows ahead of it.

I killed it on CF (exited up about 60%) and NTR.

Steel names have been a dog, but love NUE.

Overall, B-, glad 2018’s wrapping up.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

in one of my classes last year, we did a project looking back last 10 years of SP companies…..again this was for a class project so it’s half assed and not perfect or ideal…..

We found that - considering the market as a whole which rallied 4x since March 2009 - you only need to get ~43% right - either long or short or cash position - to beat the market. The most you could make was more than 3000% and the most you could lose was 100%. I don’t remember the details but these numbers are in the ballpark.

Be yourself. The world worships the original.

Black Swan wrote:

Recap:

I was obviously very wrong on GE, but in good company with Icahn.  Anyhow, good learning experience.  Still bullish, still have the same line of thought, was obviously way off on the trajectory to get there and the valuation.  Only thing that’s majorly changed for me is my cost basis, which is now at a nine handle.  But yes, I was wrong.  I’ll probably be right about the recovery and salvage things come out on top for my position, but definitely poorly traded, way too early, misunderstood the downside.

BHP did well, CSTM/GLEN did not.

TSLA (different thread), I nailed the crap out of that call (~$250 called bottom to $350).

ERJ is looking pretty solid and holding up very well, the second half of the holding period looks set to go.  BA knows what they’re doing and timed their investment a little better than mine (again, early) but, I recommended it at ~$20.50 and it’s at $21.28 despite major EM pain amid overall down market with its strongest cash flows ahead of it.

I killed it on CF (exited up about 60%) and NTR.

Steel names have been a dog, but love NUE.

Overall, B-, glad 2018’s wrapping up.

Interesting 

Black Swan wrote:

There are a lot of things to like on this one.  1)  The current CEO engineered a turnaround in healthcare at GE, taking it from their worst asset to a high performer, so he’s done this before within the organization and has great internal knowledge, as does the new CFO.  2)  You also have a beaten down valuation at a time when most portfolios are carrying too much valuation risk.  3) New management teams will invariably front load all of the pain to ease their benchmark.  Given that this has been a fresh team installed in 2017 and this latest write down was telegraphed from the onset, you have good peace of mind.  Personally, I’m waiting post YE17 earnings to jump in, but that’s me being conservative.  4)  This is a turn around of an A2 rated company so you have peace of mind around longevity and runway.  5)  Lastly, to the point of cash flows.  Looking at past 5 year FCF when this was building is cute but laughable.  You have one of the leading aerospace engine businesses heading into the biggest industry production ramp in history, a great healthcare unit with strong demographic support, a globally leading power asset which has already taken the worst of its restructuring charges (and China is developing natural gas capacity which may renew demand) and a finance unit that once shored up should resume upstreaming dividends although that is years out.  

Man, looks like Mr. Market thinks you were way wrong on this one enlightened. That said, maybe time to dip a toe in that leach infested lagoon

dang. have you been just doubling down on ge? ****s down 55% from the start of year

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Nerdyblop wrote:

dang. have you been just doubling down on ge? ****s down 55% from the start of year

I only bought my first lot with a 14 handle, I wasn’t in from the top.  Sat on that for awhile then took a larger lot when it was trading around $7 even, ended up 9 handle.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

frankybarnes wrote:

Black Swan wrote:

There are a lot of things to like on this one.  1)  The current CEO engineered a turnaround in healthcare at GE, taking it from their worst asset to a high performer, so he’s done this before within the organization and has great internal knowledge, as does the new CFO.  2)  You also have a beaten down valuation at a time when most portfolios are carrying too much valuation risk.  3) New management teams will invariably front load all of the pain to ease their benchmark.  Given that this has been a fresh team installed in 2017 and this latest write down was telegraphed from the onset, you have good peace of mind.  Personally, I’m waiting post YE17 earnings to jump in, but that’s me being conservative.  4)  This is a turn around of an A2 rated company so you have peace of mind around longevity and runway.  5)  Lastly, to the point of cash flows.  Looking at past 5 year FCF when this was building is cute but laughable.  You have one of the leading aerospace engine businesses heading into the biggest industry production ramp in history, a great healthcare unit with strong demographic support, a globally leading power asset which has already taken the worst of its restructuring charges (and China is developing natural gas capacity which may renew demand) and a finance unit that once shored up should resume upstreaming dividends although that is years out.  

Man, looks like Mr. Market thinks you were way wrong on this one enlightened

Be that as it may and unsurprising as it is, the greatest investor of all-time has thoughts on Mr. Market.

“For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and we can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.”

http://www.alphavest.com/an-essay-on-ben-grahams-mr-market-by-warren-buf...

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

I’m intrigued by GE. I plan to get in on that train wreck if it goes back to an even $7. Why 7? I like round numbers… I also appreciate the heads up on Embraer. 

This has been a fun thread and I look forward to perusing your 2019 ideas. 

RIP bchad