Trade War Gems

All these tariffs are likely to benefit companies with largely US-based manufacturing.

My top value (cheap with good growth) picks:

  • Whirlpool
  • Parker-Hannifin
  • Eaton
  • Rheinmetall (not tariff related, NATO spending)

What are your picks? With decent valuations (No 50+ PEs)

My picks are in China.

WHR - growth for me is ok. its too cyclical for me though.

PH - not much growth here. pretty stable in terms of earning power.

ETN - growth is good. but i wouldnt buy it still. but its in my list of stocks i track in the lower side.

RHN - no opinion on RHM.

anyways i’ll share one that is comparable to etn for you. UNH. they have been pretty good at integrating a lot of different healthcare businesses together!

I think WHR upside is good considering recent spike in laundry equipment cpi, related to washing machine tariffs (have a look).

Is UNH your top healthcare pick? Looks quite expensive and at the top end of its PE range. No positive EPS revisions coming through either. Abbvie in my opinion looks better.

i know about it. but the rise in price is due to tariffs, not higher demand. keep in mind thats just the company passing the cost to consumer, not necessarily anything better.

unh is not a top pick. its similar to etn. ranked somwhere in the low 200s for me. abbv is young, cyclical, and fast growing. unh is old, a lot more stable. and might even have an equivalent growth rate. their biz also has less need to innovate and are best in breed.

also in terms of multiples, unh is cheaper when you take cash/debt into account.

I agree with UNH.

Tariffs, in my view, are a strong tailwind for WHR. They are priced lower than LG and Samsung. Washing machines tend to be a grudge purchase, so the US consumer will see all washing machine prices choose the cheapest (i.e WHR). 2Q18 results are out next week so should be interesting.

Whats your view on the yield curve (flattening or steepening)? Steepening could be a nice way to play insurance. My pick is Lincoln-highly sensitive to rate changes.

  • Appliance maker cites higher input expenses in most regions
  • Sales and profit results are lower than analysts anticipated

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-23/whirlpool-sinks-as-raw-material-costs-climb-around-the-world

Consider buying Alcoa (AA) banking on expedited NAFTA resolution over the next few months.

how you feel about nucor BS?

I like them, they’re not getting any credit for the steel prices persisting and at this stage that looks likely through YE18. You have to account for the lag time even if tariffs were dropped for imports to resume. Plus each quarter that goes by more contracts reprice higher. Just seems like a good valuation.