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Stock Picks for China? Anyone?

Hello,

I’ve been waiting for a significant correction in emerging markets for a while now, and I’m interested in looking into a few Chinese stocks (not ASHR. as I am already accumulating it). BAIDU, BABA, TENCENT have all dropped significantly over the last few months. Any other suggestions… Purealpha?

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yea can sumone give me a summary on tencent. many tanks

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

I’m not really into stock picking, rather regions. I’m in A-shares (SOEs from the 2015 crash) and H-shares (there were nice yields in the rate-hike panic), plus some SE Asia stuff like Vietnam, and an occasional Singapore name. If it crashes and it’s in Asia (ex-India), I’m interested.

I don’t think you have be a stock picking genius, this is where the action is this century, so pick a up diversified basket. Personally I’ve never been into the big names everyone crowds into (Tencent, Baba, etc), but maybe I’m missing out.

my buddy actually is moving to china. hes got an interview at a firm that only analyzes chinese tech. there valuations are getting pretty juicy, for their growth. long term i feel china has better prospects than the us.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Yeah CN tech is nuts, ChiNext is something like 35 P/E.

brazil will be better than china this century. i predict a more capitalist society than the US, starting now. but the amazon rainforest may be completely destroyed and in turn the world may be destroyed. tradeoffs…

Matt Likes Analysis wrote:
turning most SOEsinto private companies (which will convert them into mostly US owned companies…

Matt Likes Analysis wrote:
brazil will be better than china this century. i predict a more capitalist society than the US…

So, BR is going to be owned by the US, but more capitalist than the US, which is corporatist.

Umm, okay. No way to disentangle those statements. 

But anyhow, 0% probability of whatever that meant happening. laugh

i mean i hope brazil becomes more competitive. we really need a competitor for china to bring them down. but quite honestly, brazil has a lot of red flags. the main red flag is when their incomes/gdp dropped during this recent time period. i wouldnt invest on a promise of change. i’d like to see it for a while before i believe it!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

I’ve had my finger hovering over the sell button on EWZ.

Nailed it at $18.21 in 2016 thanks to my Brazilian IBer contact, now over 100% up. Got no problem with the new “nazi” in charge, and he may pump markets, but at the same I’m thinking it’s time to free up cash. Can’t decide, it’s unlike me to be wishy washy like this! WTF do I do? crying

Nerdyblop wrote:

i mean i hope brazil becomes more competitive. we really need a competitor for china to bring them down. but quite honestly, brazil has a lot of red flags. the main red flag is when their incomes/gdp dropped during this recent time period. i wouldnt invest on a promise of change. i’d like to see it for a while before i believe it!

only issue is that once stabilization has occurred, the ibovespa is probably up 100%.

brazil is switching from communism to monetarism. the difference will be notable to say the least.

purealpha wrote:

So, BR is going to be owned by the US, but more capitalist than the US, which is corporatist.

Umm, okay. No way to disentangle those statements. 

But anyhow, 0% probability of whatever that meant happening. laugh

bolsonaro aims to be more capitalist than the US. disentangling capitalism and corporatism is in fact easier when the corporate overlords are foreign and politicians have no need to pander to investors. offer investment opportunities in brazil under protection of a highly militarized government but do not provide traditional corporatist incentives. i know its hard for you to understand provided you think that the chinese economy is the economy of the future despite being unproductively run by government and its current state is completely dependent on the suppression of human nature (e.g. democracy, free-will, etc).

population is not a good metric. consider the us with 300m people has more gdp than china. brazil is just another trading partner we can use to negotiate china down!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

ppp would work in a utopian world, unfortunately, an american is superior to most.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Matt Likes Analysis wrote:

i know its hard for you to understand provided you think that the chinese economy is the economy of the future despite being unproductively run by government and its current state is completely dependent on the suppression of human nature (e.g. democracy, free-will, etc).

^ I was trying to follow your “reasoning” until this mini-rant.

The Chinese economy is not run by the government, that’s a false statement. It’s a hybrid, with partial gov ownership of a small number of big companies…which works great, clearly. Also, all large societies (US, Russia, China) suppress their citizens, or they wouldn’t be able to hold together their large society. Also you made up that bull**** about “democracy = human nature.” Also implied here is the US is democracy, but no it’s a corporatocracy.

So much bull**** packed into such a tight cluster of words! surprise

yes but the us has 100 trillion dollars. china has about 50 trillion. the population is both about the same, but the net margin per person is much lower in china. as the average age gets older, the population will prolly have a negative effect to net worth!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

you know i read an article that said that asian men are the second most unattractive demographic in the us. last place goes to female blacks.

anyhow. i am in agreement that china will prolly be better than the us even in terms of net worth eventually, but  the idea that it is guaranteed or that it will happen really soon the is deeply uninformed.

using gdp as the baseline comparison is like comparing revenues between 2 companies like apple and walmart. just because wmt has 500b in revs vs appl’s 250b, does not make wmt’s 250b market cap equivalent to appl 1 trillion. margins matter!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

reading government document for 15 minutes can be more useful than analyze stocks for 15 hours for people who wants to invest in China. Best way to invest in Chinese companies? Buy their stocks issued in USA or Hongkong market. 

 bilibili Inc can potentially be a company worth investing, almost all the young people in China use their website to watch animation, game or cartoons. They are not clear about how to make the profit right now, but they will figure it out, eventually. 

Plus, In the next ten years, big companies won’t be successful if they failed to get consumers in the rural area,  people’s income in the rural area increased so fast, and they will definitely have increasing demand for goods and services in all aspects. 

As a Chinese, I am more concern about the emerging of Chauvinism and populism in China in the past few years. Plus the fact that China is so different from other Asia countries. Anyone want to invest in China should watch wolf warrior 2, it tells you what majority of Chinese are thinking right now.

walter pu wrote:

Best way to invest in Chinese companies? Buy their stocks issued in USA or Hongkong market. 

Why though?

There are extremely different valuations floating around different markets, for the (mostly) same underlying thing. And it’s not as simple as “buy the cheapest one, valuations will narrow,” because that hasn’t happened. I do it case by case, it really depends.

Buy a ton of Xiaomi, before people realize where Apple’s problems are stemming from…

pffft