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Warchest deployment

Have you been building up a warchest during the past years? I have! My fingers are itching and I’d like to start firing on all cylinders soon but I’m trying to passionately wait for mama bear to wake up for real. What’s your plan on deploying your reserve cash? 

If you're the first out the door, that's not called panicking

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have about 50k in cash. expecting abotu 30k more. plan to drop 15k early jan.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Watchu going to buy? You know SNAP is like $5 now. What a deal!

“Visit the Water Cooler forum on Analyst Forum. It is the best forum.”
- Everyone

not snap. but i am buying tech. i need it cash flow and net income positive at a decent multiple relative to growth.

how bout u? still have all your **** in 2x levered etf? i remember u were one of the biggest proponents

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Total portfolio leverage is much lower than 2x, but still not doing so great this month. I’m thinking, what else is good to invest in at the moment though? 

“Visit the Water Cooler forum on Analyst Forum. It is the best forum.”
- Everyone

dont worry about it bruh. everyone is hurting, even the dude just in spy is down 15 percent.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

ohai wrote:

Total portfolio leverage is much lower than 2x, but still not doing so great this month. I’m thinking, what else is good to invest in at the moment though? 

Do you take loss harvest at all? 

Yes, but in limited size, since most assets are still up after 2017. 

“Visit the Water Cooler forum on Analyst Forum. It is the best forum.”
- Everyone

Technically if you bought at March 2009, you still have a 10 bagger. Anyways! Here’s to the longest expansionary period for the last 100 years.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

I’m thinking about flipping all my spy (all they money I’ve rolled over from 401ks to Ira are in spy) into double or triple levered s&p 500 etfs, maybe cost dollars average in 1/12 at a time, every month, after the market comes down say, 25% from peak, thots?

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

hpracing007 wrote:

I’m thinking about flipping all my spy (all they money I’ve rolled over from 401ks to Ira are in spy) into double or triple levered s&p 500 etfs, maybe cost dollars average in 1/12 at a time, every month, after the market comes down say, 25% from peak, thots?

I wouldn’t try to time it 

dont get greedy. add on weakness 

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

It’s a great idea. The time to buy levered ETFs is when prices have fallen significantly and am spy below 20 percent is such a time. Lever up when markets fall. Delever when markets rise. The shortest bear market is about 3 months, while the longest is about 3 years. The median is about 1.4. Food for thots!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

rawraw wrote:

hpracing007 wrote:

I’m thinking about flipping all my spy (all they money I’ve rolled over from 401ks to Ira are in spy) into double or triple levered s&p 500 etfs, maybe cost dollars average in 1/12 at a time, every month, after the market comes down say, 25% from peak, thots?

I wouldn’t try to time it 

What if instead of timing I say, I begin the program once the s&p hits a certain forward P/E? That’s a little more fundamentally driven.

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/chart...

here you go. compares forward pe in differnt time periods, plus you see the comments of others during bottom.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

hpracing007 wrote:

rawraw wrote:

hpracing007 wrote:

I’m thinking about flipping all my spy (all they money I’ve rolled over from 401ks to Ira are in spy) into double or triple levered s&p 500 etfs, maybe cost dollars average in 1/12 at a time, every month, after the market comes down say, 25% from peak, thots?

I wouldn’t try to time it 

What if instead of timing I say, I begin the program once the s&p hits a certain forward P/E? That’s a little more fundamentally driven.

I suspect  this only works if you can move into cheaper markets with the cash. Otherwise I doubt the strategy outperforms just a buy and holding .Only time CAPE seems to work for investing is when you are moving across markets. Doesn’t seem to work for a single market 

This down trend has only been going on for 8-9 weeks I think. I’m contributing monthly to defensive ETF/stocks. Contributions are small atleast for the next couple months. I’m waiting to see more/new info from the fed and anything from China/USA trade issues. Until then i’m not feeling super confident.

well technically this aint officially a bear market yet sicne we havent hit the 20% mark. but i do feel this is a bear market and we have further downside beyond 20%, but at that point im cool with dropping money to risky asset until im fully invested. and if markets continue to fall and a lot of time has passed, i’ll tweak it to even risker assets. anyways its a bit funny, like what if we drop 55% like last time. ok, so if i add 5% of my net worth right now to risky assets, i just lost an additional 2% from my reactionary decisions. boohoo. my overall portfolio is prolly down 40% so its not like it matters. hahaha

a priest once told me, that everything will be ok in the end, and if its not ok, then its not the end.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.