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2019 Ideas

Pixel > iPhone.

*warms popcorn

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Yea I’m really amazed with pixels voice activation. It’s amazing how googles tech is far more advanced even though they are there for a shorter time.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Wonder if PA is still short vol…

PA where you at?

WSJ article from 2 days ago pointed out how Samsung was the #1 smart phone maker in China 5 years ago. However, today they have less than 1% market share. What? The factors were some kind of national pride/anti Korean wave, and also some really bad PR from the time Samsung’s batteries exploded. The point overall is that any company can very quickly change from a market leader to also-ran. 

Apple is in a better position than Samsung was, since their software platform is not completely generic and they have better brand recognition in general. However, both of these advantages are tenuous. China’s users use mostly shared platform apps, and a wave of anti-US sentiment could quickly erode Apple’s brand desirability. I don’t know how useful valuation metrics are to Apple when their sales projections, and therefore their valuation model inputs, can suddenly drop 10% like they did last week. 

I’m not saying China is the only important market to Apple or the company’s only potential location for future growth. This country was, however, central to Apple’s original growth plan. China currently provides 20% of Apple’s revenue. I’m sure Apple planned for this to be 40% or more at some point in the future. 

I am not an expert in fundamental analysis. So maybe I’m wrong, but lots of people are getting concerned about Apple’s business prospects for these reasons. 

Regarding “returning cash to shareholders”, Apple used to be a hoarder, but is now starting to aggressively reduce their cash balance. Last year, they had like $250 billion - now they have like $135 billion, and Tim Cook just said he wants to bring it to near zero. They’re just using the cash to buy back shares, rather than issue dividends. Once Apple is “cash neutral”, I don’t know what the implications will be in terms of capital buffering or other things, if any. 

“Visit the Water Cooler forum on Analyst Forum. It is the best forum.”
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I’m only 24, and don’t know where I can buy stocks or short them. Do I need to buy them from certain companies? Or financial apps like Robinhood? And how can I start building my performance history (want to start with my own money)?

dasstienn wrote:

I’m only 24, and don’t know where I can buy stocks or short them. Do I need to buy them from certain companies? Or financial apps like Robinhood? And how can I start building my performance history (want to start with my own money)?

Lol, oh man.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Galli wrote:
PA where you at?

Banned from AnalystForum.

Simplify the complicated side; don't complify the simplicated side.

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Black Swan why would you be bullish on basic materials and chemicals when there is a reasonable case that the global economies may be slowing/weakening?   Have they been clobbered of late or otherwise undervalued.  

JohnyMac wrote:

Black Swan why would you be bullish on basic materials and chemicals when there is a reasonable case that the global economies may be slowing/weakening?   Have they been clobbered of late or otherwise undervalued.  

Yeah most of those names are down bigly YTD, many of them down >20%, some well over 30% down.  Supply for the most part is rational, plants are all refurbished and running at low cost reliably and cash flows are solid.  Because of the basic materials meltdown during the last China scare in 2016, a lot of these guys cut their debt levels to extremely low levels, rationalized inefficient capacity and streamlined organizations, invested to improve plants to run lower cost and more reliably and now are under leveraged with good  cash positions and still throwing off free cash flow yields >10% that has to go somewhere.  M&A and expansion appetite remains minimal.  All of the headlines have run ahead of the reality on the ground with good cash outflows and shareholder returns.  The key is to buy quality names with good cost positions.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

I mean, these aren’t fire sale prices so if you’re inclined to wait, that would make sense, I tend to be early.  But I feel these prices are pretty good.  Additionally, I think China is making moves to increase stimulus as it exits this seasonally restrained part of the year with curtailed construction and manufacturing through winter on pollution grounds.  I think what’s increasingly baked in are concerns over a China hard landing or bumpy slow down, which I don’t think is a base case.  I think we’re well past global minor slowdown levels and there are areas like Brazil that are showing signs of recovery.  I think we’re entering a new era where a belated consumer lead recovery will bring a second wind.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Seriously, I’ve never traded stocks. 

Black Swan wrote:

I mean, these aren’t fire sale prices so if you’re inclined to wait, that would make sense, I tend to be early.  But I feel these prices are pretty good.  Additionally, I think China is making moves to increase stimulus as it exits this seasonally restrained part of the year with curtailed construction and manufacturing through winter on pollution grounds.  I think what’s increasingly baked in are concerns over a China hard landing or bumpy slow down, which I don’t think is a base case.  I think we’re well past global minor slowdown levels and there are areas like Brazil that are showing signs of recovery.  I think we’re entering a new era where a belated consumer lead recovery will bring a second wind.

last time china injected this much stimulus was March 2016, one month after market bottom at the time. might bode well for the December 2018 lows being the lows for now.

Black Swan wrote:

Agree with Ohai’s view verbatim.

Additionally, I like Basic Materials.  Paper / Pulp / Lumber: IP, WY, MERC.  Chemicals: DWDP, NTR, ETN, SHW, ECO.  Metals/Mining: NUE, TECK, BHP.

Industrials neutral on the sector, but like ERJ, GE, ROP. 

Ok, I’ll admit that one was luck, but oh man.  Still recommend a buy though, PT is ~$20 although I might wait until some of this current technical fades.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

dasstienn wrote:

Seriously, I’ve never traded stocks. 

Visit www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets and ask for their advice. Be sure to take their advice seriously. They basically print money over there.

thats the dumbest thread ive seen in a while

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

S2000magician wrote:

Galli wrote:
PA where you at?

Banned from AnalystForum.

Makes sense, thanks.