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Low growth, low inflation? Japan deja-vu?

A pretty solid read:

Have you thought about a possibility of US and Europe’s markets following Japan’s way? 

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But isn’t US and Europe(in general) have much higher birth rates and still seeing population growth? Japan is negative.

I feel that for the other developed countries, there are so many more sectors that you can invest with more confidence for growth. Amazon and AI, intel for more efficient chips, etc. 

For Japan, I’m biased, but there aren’t many industries that are seeing growth in demand, or producing innovation. Toyota - people are getting less reliant on cars. Toshiba - the industry has been handed over to China and Korea. 

At least for the US, it has companies that are leading innovators in what they do. If the combination of not innovating, no bright outlook for the future, no Capex deployment, no jobs, declining population, etc. comes along, welcome to Japan Inc.. But though Apple isn’t wowing anyone like before for quite a while, I doubt that ALL of the industry leaders won’t be able to launch attractive new products and services.

US and Europe are somewhat different from Japan with respect to demographic changes. Japan’s population is declining and aging at a faster pace. Japan is also strongly anti immigration and anti innovation in many ways. I’m not saying that the US or Europe (especially Europe) can’t enter a period of flat or negative growth, but they are just better than Japan. 

If you are concerned about asset prices, most market capitalization is globalized. For instance, Apple has been looking to China for revenue growth, and Amazon has been looking to India. Even China goes a step further and invests in Pakistan and Africa. World growth might be slowing, but global economic and political stability are at unprecedented highs. 

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Yeah, it’s just not really remotely applicable to compare the US or world to japan and 2% inflation, 3% growth coming off of some 5% quarters of growth is not the same as their decade of deflation, not even close.  Also, far less hentai.

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I thought Hentai was contributing to our growth!

Make sure you don’t have that massive home country bias most have in their Portfolios and you should be OK  I do think about this though, because it is the scenario that leveraged etfs would underperform

Even though the chances for such development are not too high, at least not right now, even a small chance of US/Europe entering into a zero/low growth phase is pretty scary. For example, if you think about how pension schemes have been built on higher growth rates (especially in Europe where pensions are for the most part government sponsored) than that what we’re seeing right now, it is pretty clear that in a low growth environment either pensions will get cut or the current generation will pay for the slack in higher taxes/pension contributions. 

If you're the first out the door, that's not called panicking