Forecasting revenues for pig iron and DI pipe prducer

Water Cooler Investing
#1

I have been working on a financial model for sometime on an Indian company called tata metaliks.

It is a producer of pig iron and DI pipes. I am unable to forecast the revenue figures. There is no management forecasts in recent ARs for revenue. Also I do not have a steady past growth rate for both the segments due to external factors. Please suggest how should I forecast them .

Also even If i get the numbers, they are sure to exceed the capacity for production. And yes, management had not given any sort of capex plans too.

#2

forecasting this is nasty and is completely reliant on global growth and in particular chinese growth assumptions. the biggest issue is how are you going to forecast margins when steel prices suck and iron and coal prices are relatively high. the assumption you make for margins is far more important than the assumption you make for growth and the margin assumption has no consensus at this point.