Argentina’s stock exchange in constant terms has lost about 40% of its value in a year. Thank god Mkt Cap / GPD is low in relative terms. Default spreads have gone through the roof and price controls are coming to fight inflation. Your thoughts? Is there a way to play this situation?
inflation is killing them. 54% yoy. bond prices have fallen 25 percent. teh cda spreads for the 5 yr spiked since jan 2018 by like 800 bps which makes sense since they have defaulted before (2001). apparently its at the top of the misery index as well even worse the shitty ass ecuador.
if ur from there. id move back to your home country if there are more opportutites. if u have a ton of arg aseets, id switch it to usd. investing in arg equity is prolly not that bad an idea. solid cos can typically hedge you from inflation risk. also you are right in terms of gdp/mkt value its really cheap at like 70%, i think the bottom was in 2016 at 55%. whats the ev/ebtida like for the cos?
quite fascinating. just saw a real cheap reit that literally crashed there is no reason for a reit to trade so low. real assets is king when inflation is rampant. and debt as long as its fixed is a great thing to have.
Still, prices for apartments in Buenos Aires have dropped about 10% and have also dropped in constant prices (pesos). https://www.clarin.com/arq/precios-dolares-propiedades-suben-bajan_0_PUvo37RbB.html
I wouldn’t know where to put my money at this moment. The “riesgo Pais index” for Argentina (premium asked) created by JP Morgan is near 1000 pints https://www.ambito.com/contenidos/riesgo-pais.html ; those are default levels.
I’m from Uruguay and for the first time ever the Peso Argentino is worth less that the Peso Uruguayo.
The situation is very complicated.
literrally 2 years ago they issued 100 year bonds. whoever bought them got super screwed. lol. crashed 33 percent