Thirteen years ago, two prominent U.S. economists wrote that driverless cars couldn’t execute a left turn against oncoming traffic because too many factors were involved. Six years later, Google proved it could make fully autonomous cars, threatening the livelihoods of millions of truck and taxi drivers. Throughout much of the developed world, gainful employment is seen as almost a fundamental right. But what if, in the not-too-distant future, there won’t be enough jobs to go around? That’s what some economists think will happen as robots and artificial intelligence increasingly becomes capable of performing human tasks. Of course, past technological upheavals created more jobs than they destroyed. But some labor experts argue that this time could be different: Technology is replacing human brains as well as brawn.
There’s ample room for skepticism. U.S. productivity growth has been slow, exactly the opposite of what one would expect if robots were taking over. Also, advances in artificial intelligence could end up focusing mostly on specific tasks rather than entire jobs, augmenting rather than replacing humans. That said, history teaches us that it’s hard to predict how technological change will unfold. Even if, as some economists predict, new jobs and industries eventually replace those being automated, large portions of the global workforce may need retraining. And if work becomes a luxury, widespread joblessness and greater inequality could redefine the challenge of ensuring a social safety net.
No worries. We can all just lay around having orgies while the robots and computers do all the work. It’s not like there’s going to be sex robots or anything.
This is interesting in terms of a couple things to me.
High levels of income inequality have often times preceded depressions including '29 (not to say it wasn’t exacerbated by other things)
Their claim that "The new assets are digital " doesnt feel right. A lot of the progress in the last century was low hanging fruit being picked, but its not like its been lost to current peolple. We still benefit from the advancements. And at the same time, I don’t really think the “new assets are digital.” TFP growth has been very low for a long time.
It doesnt seem like the new assets are digital, it just seems like there isn’t much in terms of new assets to be had, compared with growth in the last century.
Once a beacon of employment for working-class communities across the country, the US has seen sharp declines in manufacturing for decades. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after employing as much as 38% of the US workforce in the 1950s, just 9% of Americans are employed through manufacturing today — with more than 5 million factory jobs lost between 2000 and 2014, reported the Economic Policy Institute.
So I know farming was similar in its becoming a smaller and smaller % of the population. Now its manufacturing, and in the near future self driving trucks will destroy a bunch of jobs. I wonder what the next big employer of working class will be. Or if thats just the wrong way to think about it.
It’s good for strategic interests to have some manufacturing industry based in the US. Let’s say China declares war on the US and 100% of US manufacturing is done in Asian countries.
My nana’s job was killed by a self-driving truck some years ago. It is insane they plan to release more of those impetuous monsters on the highways. There is no telling what carnage could ensue, but hopefully they choose to help rather than destroy.
