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2020 Presidential election odds

These markets are probably pretty garbage predictors at this point, but still interesting to see what the market odds are:

1) Trump 30% (probably severely underrated)

2) Kamala Harris 15%

3) Beto 15% (will be higher if he officially declares candidacy)

4) Biden 11% (fading)

5) Sanders 7%

6) Elizabeth Warren 6% (no chance, in my opinion)

“Visit the Water Cooler forum on Analyst Forum. It is the best forum.”
- Everyone

I hope crooked H runs again.

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

I believe that Harris is going to gain a lot of traction.

And I’m not remotely a Democrat.

Simplify the complicated side; don't complify the simplicated side.

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Pretty much a lock for Trump, unless a centrist like Bloomberg runs

hpracing007 wrote:
I hope crooked H runs again.

That hope and $3.50 will buy you a cup of Starbucks.

Simplify the complicated side; don't complify the simplicated side.

Financial Exam Help 123: The place to get help for the CFA® exams
http://financialexamhelp123.com/

I don’t know, it’s going to be pretty tough to defeat Pence.

If we slip into a recession Trump is done.  His only shot is for a recession to happen now and we start to recover early 2020.

LBriscoe wrote:

If we slip into a recession Trump is done.  His only shot is for a recession to happen now and we start to recover early 2020.

I have as much faith in Trump’s ability to fix a crashing economy as I do in his ability to not sexually assault a woman.

Schopenhauer wrote:

LBriscoe wrote:

If we slip into a recession Trump is done.  His only shot is for a recession to happen now and we start to recover early 2020.

I have as much faith in Trump’s ability to fix a crashing economy as I do in his ability to not sexually assault a woman.

But mah border wall!!!

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

“There has never been a man or woman, not me, not Bill, more qualified than Hillary Clinton to serve as President of the United States of America” - Obama

telling y’all, she needs to run again

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

S2000magician wrote:

I believe that Harris is going to gain a lot of traction.

And I’m not remotely a Democrat.

lol why do you say that? i never heard of her.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris

anyways im with comp. we need a centrist like bloomberg.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

They should get Jeff Ross to host the democratic debates because its just going to be the roast of Donald Trump the whole time. There will be no discernible platform differences between any of those Dem. candidates.

Oh no, you don't want to mess with a guy thats riding on a buffalo.

LBriscoe wrote:
If we slip into a recession Trump is done.

Trade war >> global slowdown spreads >> eventually spreads to the U.S. >> then Trump is done [assumption].

Thus growing desperation to cut a deal with Xi, and Xi knows it.

Some of these prediction places seem wildly off on politics. I’m considering starting to bet on them to exploit the emotions 

S2000magician wrote:

hpracing007 wrote:
I hope crooked H runs again.

That hope and $3.50 will buy you a cup of Starbucks.

Is Starbucks having a sale?

"When what I'm doing isn't working, that's when I'll take your criticisms." -- Me, some time ago

And Then I Was Right wrote:

LBriscoe wrote:
If we slip into a recession Trump is done.

Trade war >> global slowdown spreads >> eventually spreads to the U.S. >> then Trump is done [assumption].

Thus growing desperation to cut a deal with Xi, and Xi knows it.

PA dat you?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

Tulsi Gabbard Joe Rogan 2020. Dems want a chance, make her your main candidate. 

Have a look at her take on many of the most pressing issues. Shes similar to trump in many big issues (syria, trade, infrastructure) but liberal as it relates to the environment, farming, etc. I’m really impressed by her - could be our hottest, first hindu president

https://www.tulsigabbard.org/

I’m calling Trump.

#FreeCVM #FreeTurd #2007-2017

Yeah Tulsi is a good candidate.. you know, other than the affiliation with conversion therapy and being an Assad apologist. 

I don’t see how any of these people stand much of a chance against Trump. Maybe if you stack someone like Booker with Gillibrand to cover as much of your base as possible.

lol i think this wall is costing trump and the repubs votes. i dont know who the democrat candidates are, but im pretty sure we are swining left after this nightmare. 4.4 trillion budget being held up by a 5.7b wall. 0.1% of our funding. lolzars.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/trump-tells-pelosi-he-will-give-state-of...

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Gabbard would never win any state’s primary, nor excite the left to get out and vote.

Surprised Bernie is as low as he is, he gets people excited. At the very least I hope he is able to get the rest of the candidates to adopt some of his policies.

How quick dems to call her an Assad apologetic. She met with him ….

shes well spoken, logical, a female, and attractive. She should be dems front runner but y’all are so brainwashed 

I doubt that a recession will actually lock Trump out of winning in 2020. Most Trump supporters will simply attribute the data to other factors, such as the Fed or Democrats. Voter loyalty tends to be sticky. For example, most Trump voters blame Democrats for the current government shutdown, while most Democrats blame Trump.

Furthermore, consumer confidence, unemployment rates, or perceptions of those measures might not be correlated with the economic growth trend over a couple of recent quarters. Even if there is a recession on paper, it’s not clear that voters will immediately feel its effects in everyday life. 

Even if Trump were to perform poorly in economic measures, it won’t matter, if his opponent is perceived to be potentially more damaging. On economic terms alone, I cannot really imagine choosing Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren over Trump, unless Trump does something truly catastrophic, beyond anything that he’s already done or talked about doing.

Finally, disapproval of Trump tends to cause the left wing of Democrats to conflagrate. Trump related controversy will increase the odds that Democrats will choose a more left leaning candidate, and this will be harmful to their election prospects. As usual, it would be better for the Democrats odds, as well as the country’s interests, if they run a centrist candidate. Hillary’s disaster has diminished this probability, unfortunately.

“Visit the Water Cooler forum on Analyst Forum. It is the best forum.”
- Everyone

It’s pretty striking how few Governors are running (are any? Steve Bullock of Montana perhaps?) on the Dem side. You’ve got all these reps throwing their hat in the ring, kind of dumb.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

whatsyourgovt wrote:

How quick dems to call her an Assad apologetic. She met with him ….

shes well spoken, logical, a female, and attractive. She should be dems front runner but y’all are so brainwashed 

Putting aside the Assad thing, do you think a group of people who wanted to crucify Kavanaugh for something he allegedly did decades ago is going to be okay with something that she indisputably was involved with 15 years ago? Perhaps it’s not fair to analogize sexual assault with an anti-LGBT stance, but conversion therapy is really messed up, and much of the dem. base is so feverishly pro-LGBT that I can’t see her shaking this issue.

I wonder what changes, if any, the pollsters are going to make since all of their “independent” polls seemed to lean the exact same way in the last election. 

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

ohai wrote:

I doubt that a recession will actually lock Trump out of winning in 2020. Most Trump supporters will simply attribute the data to other factors, such as the Fed or Democrats. Voter loyalty tends to be sticky. For example, most Trump voters blame Democrats for the current government shutdown, while most Democrats blame Trump.

Furthermore, consumer confidence, unemployment rates, or perceptions of those measures might not be correlated with the economic growth trend over a couple of recent quarters. Even if there is a recession on paper, it’s not clear that voters will immediately feel its effects in everyday life. 

Even if Trump were to perform poorly in economic measures, it won’t matter, if his opponent is perceived to be potentially more damaging. On economic terms alone, I cannot really imagine choosing Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren over Trump, unless Trump does something truly catastrophic, beyond anything that he’s already done or talked about doing.

Finally, disapproval of Trump tends to cause the left wing of Democrats to conflagrate. Trump related controversy will increase the odds that Democrats will choose a more left leaning candidate, and this will be harmful to their election prospects. As usual, it would be better for the Democrats odds, as well as the country’s interests, if they run a centrist candidate. Hillary’s disaster has diminished this probability, unfortunately.

^This. Dems should  be focused on reclaiming the white middle class voters they lost to Trump.  Doubling down on a socialist or race baiter will surely lose them the 2020 election.

Oh no, you don't want to mess with a guy thats riding on a buffalo.

I think there are a lot of people voted for Trump last time in the hopes of him behaving.  Well, that hasn’t been the case, so I wonder if he has the same ability to get the swing vote this time in Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio.  But then I live in Southern California, and the love for Trump here is nonexistent, so maybe my view is clouded.

king_kong wrote:

whatsyourgovt wrote:

How quick dems to call her an Assad apologetic. She met with him ….

shes well spoken, logical, a female, and attractive. She should be dems front runner but y’all are so brainwashed 

Putting aside the Assad thing, do you think a group of people who wanted to crucify Kavanaugh for something he allegedly did decades ago is going to be okay with something that she indisputably was involved with 15 years ago? Perhaps it’s not fair to analogize sexual assault with an anti-LGBT stance, but conversion therapy is really messed up, and much of the dem. base is so feverishly pro-LGBT that I can’t see her shaking this issue.

meeting Assad is a good thing - talking is must to avoid war.

shes addresses this - she was raised in that household but her views have evolved which is reflected in her voting record.

shes shown character when she dropped her role in the dnc to support Bernie. She’s the best choice otherwise it’ll be trump again