So, I just had a bat sh!t crazy idea. WHAT if, we created a platform, where you could start taking different prop bets on economic developments?
“Oh but Michael, you can already do that via the global capital markets”. - THAT’S where you’re wrong. Markets don’t always react rationally to news. You would not only have to have your forecasts accurate, but you also have to be RIGHT about how economic data will move markets.
So, I want to find a way in which I can engage with anyone else to make different prop bets (just like Fantasy Football, but instead, Fantasy Economics) on things like China making a Trade deal before this week is over.
There’s GOTTA be interest for something like this right?
AND THE BEST PART IS - since, the underlying instruments aren’t actually scrutinized securitized, we could all make these bets with no restriction. Talk about taking candy from a baby.
I figure if we’re gonna go be a bunch of “analysts” - we might as well get paid on it too.
I think there’s too many variables. And most people think they know a lot about world events but they likely don’t and don’t care to know more. For a fantasy sports league, you have a start/end date, rules, number of games, huge fan base, it’s entertaining, ect but for economic developments, none of that, it’s like never ending. When would people start and stop playing? You could try to break it up in to years or something but it’s hard to keep people’s attention that long and there’s so much that could happen that no one could imagine.
I’ve seen some sites that are based on single events, like Brexit, political events, but nothing continuous.
Superforecaster benchmark against prediction markets for similar stuff, so it has to exist at least partially.
I almost jumped into the betting markets because Hillary has 10% odds of winning democratic nomination currently. Net of fees, the retur wasn’t going to be worth it though. But now they are sending me promotions which will reduce the fee impact. If I get a large eough incentive, I’m putting lots of bets on democratic nominees. Pricing seems irrational to me. The markets seem to be partisan when it involves hot button issues
yeah they already have this for things that are cut and dry. as in, will the majority vote for brexit or not?
you can’t have a prop bet on “will there be a US-China trade deal by friday” because everyone’s definition of a “deal” is different. hell, unless all tariffs are reversed and trump achieves everything he set out to achieve, how can it actually be considered a genuine deal? you also can’t have bets on most economic data as it is revised several times at future dates. if you had a bet on non-farm payrolls being over 200k but non-farm came in at 199k but with upward revisions to past months of 300k, how could you possibly take bets on this?
unless you have cut and dry, binary situations, you will be sued to high heaven when money is involved.