^Nothing special about this - entirely expected given china is a property driven market.
It’s RR is still quite high vs other countries
RR?
^
Sorry, just a short name for reserve requirement ratio, most just say reserve ratio (RR) when discussing things internally
China had it coming for a while - would’ve been so interesting if I could trade china. I’m telling you guys, people are still incorrectly positioned on china risk - it’s going to get quite ugly before it gets any better.
What I don’t understand though is why HK keeps soaring? I get that chinese investors want to pull out of mainland china and invest in the island but aren’t fhe fundamentals pretty much the same? Sure HK might have quite a few non-chinese firms but still - I do not undertsand why HK is a buy under these circumstances…
Well, at the start of the year my call was Chinese A-shares and currency hedged Japan. But I’ve since sold and am sitting on piles of cash!
Right now, picked up a little bit of Vietnam (VNM) a week or so ago when it dipped, it’s getting cheap, but it’s a long-term bet. Perhaps Greece if everyone panics and it hits a new low. Russia no thanks.
Most everything else is expensive.
^
Greece? You’ve got balls dude. Even Draghi doesn’t know how to trde around Greece.
Russia - is amazing. I thank Putin for a significant portion of my cash.
Vietnam - never followed their markets? Anything interesting going on in particular?
Meh, nothing particularly interesting other than people are ignoring it, which is where I like to be. It’s hard for foreigners to invest there, hard to get any news on what’s going on…illiquid and opaque with wild price swings! But companies like Samsung are starting to move manufacturing from China to lower costs, and eventually the government opens things up. That’s the long term play, but it’s also very volatile so there’s buying the dips and flipping it.
Greece. My European IB buddy says Americans are idiots, that they don’t understand Europe; “Europe is a family, you don’t disown your cousin just cause he’s retarded”. I’m not so sure about that though, the retarded cousin is really pushing it!! It’s embarrassing to watch. Still, if I can get him cheap enough I’ll bet on the retard. 
Nice move on Russia, I thought about it but didn’t have the nuts.
Korea trading at 11x earnings
Yeah, and Samsung has been getting cheap again, I picked some up. Not that interested in KR other than that stock.
It’s worth taking a look at India’s Coal industry. The govt is planning a shake-up soon and considering India still has some of the largest reserves of Coal it could be big.
I want to say that a fund’s return is driven largely by the return of the individual component stocks/bonds’ return and the individual stocks’ return are largely driven by the specific company fundamentals. Hence, it is possible to find an individual stock that outperforms a given index in a low growth environment such as Europe. In the same vein, it is also possible to find individual stocks that underperform a given index in high growth economies such as those of emerging markets. Therefore, using purely a country’s fundamentals as basis for investing may not be robust enough and the tendency for a fund selected around country’s fundamentals to underform can be high.
My suggestion will be to scour for companies with good fundamentals selling below their intrinsic values as a result of some temporal challenge. These are the over-performers in the long term.
I’m starting to think India is being overplayed, lots of chat about reform but not coming through yet. Thinking of rejigging my EM exposure, indonesia looking good, as is vietnam
electronics? looks cheap vs history but I can’t see it performing well long term. i’m underweight
Yup, I bought some on the London exchange back in Nov, made mega money, sold some at the highs, now picking more up on the dip.
My reasoning on Samsung comes from working with these guys and living in Seoul. SS is not just a company, it’s a country!!! They have the backing of the government, the media, and the people. So it’s not like they are going to disappear. It’s a bet on the Korean people being smart and hard working, and finding a way to adapt. They’ll move manufacturing to cheaper areas, move out of cell phones into internet-connected washing machines, or whatever it takes. Then I’ll sell for a gain and wait for them to fuck it up again. 
I remember Whitney Tilson pitching Samsung preferred late last year. Same economic interest as common, no voting rights, higher dividend, and trading at 20% discount from the common.
India and Germany
Definitely - I’m out of India now. INR lost ~10% against GBP. Only one investment left in an oil company which is the largest component of their index - and recently posted stellar profits. It’s trading near the highs of a range it’s been stuck in - holding to see if it breaks that. Not too keen, but whatever.
Bottom line, if this PM can’t change India - then India can be safely written off forever. Also, i hear they’ve recently adopted a new method of calculating GDP - which could be responsible for the high numbers they’ve posted recently. I’ll look into it after my exams.
As for reforms, they are actually coming through - the only issue is that there is so much mess to sort out (i.e. inefficiencies and general slack in companies) that it’s going to take longer than most investors can hold out for.
Not to mention, if Fed does raise rates (ablbeit slightly) in Sep - there will be blood. It won’t be so bad for India (vs other countries) but it will be urgly. Especially if you consider where INR is trading now vs where it was a few months back.
Simple talk for simple folk. The fundamentals are too strong for that to happen. The only thing unclear at this point is the timeline.
Patience is the name of the game here.
You have to understand that if you are expecting break neck growth like China it will never happen. While the current government might have absolute majority , the political structure which is federal gives so much autonomy to individual states that it will take time to get everyone on the same page. This government will be around for the better part of a decade and Modi seems to have focused his first part on laying the foundations for bringing manufacturing and investment and more importantly developing political relationships. ( The China - India talks were a subtle game changer)
The drastic reforms needed will take place slowly and over time though something to look forward to in the near future is the Coal industry.
Fun fact - I just learnt Samsung builds ships and were involved in the construction of Burj Khalifa. Wow.
Samsung makes everything, I’ve got a Samsung suit (they make fabric)!