Would any of you buy AAPL going into earnings (July 22)? or would you wait and buy after earnings? I want to place a small position (about 2k or 22 shares) because I believe they will report great third quarter results. But I feel that if I do, maybe some short seller jackass in after hours will completely kill me and bring the stock down, just so they can buy cheaper lol Thoughts?
I don’t base my investments on how it is going to perform over the next few months so I can’t comment on whether it is the right strategy. But do you believe their earnings will be higher, or at least stable over the next few years?
As noted in an earlier post, I was a seller of AAPL at $94.60 and continue to be long GOOG. I have no visibility on AAPL into the quarter other than that the multiples are now the highest they’ve been in the last 18 months and consensus expectations have also ratcheted up. That’s not to say AAPL can’t continue to compound but I outlined reasons in my earlier post why I think sentiment has gotten ahead of itself and would not be a buyer at these levels. I’d be interested around $80.
AAPL is much better after using android phone imho, much more user friendly without the useless functionalities Samsung or other android phones have. Also it has the best resell value out of all the phones on the market.
Just clarifying here (no position in AAPL): There is no such thing as a “short seller jackass”. Short sellers do the market a favor by exposing low quality investments, and as a group (referring to top short sellers like Citron, Muddy Waters, etc.) are correct most of the time. I would be truly surprised if a short seller could materially move AAPL stock anyway.
People who whine about short sellers are usually just lashing out trying to blame someone for making a bad investment. Companies that whine about short sellers are usually guilty of the fraud(s) they are accused of.
I agree with your post except for this part. Is this anecdotal? If so, you may have a biased sample. There are plenty of schmucks out there that have never made a good trade, so it is a bit surprising to me to say that as a group short sellers are correct. I guess it would be easy enough to study just by looking at stock moves lagged from short interest.
Correct. There is a database that tracks returns by publisher, so my statement is objectively verifiable. I agree there are many poor short sellers. AMZN short, lol
Yeah, now is not the time to buy AAPL. It’s definitely overbought; however, I’m holding at the moment. I’m making some good money on the current run, but AAPL needs to make some changes to go higher and justify it’s valuation. Since Steve Jobs passed, AAPL has only released iphone and ipad upgrades. There hasn’t been a single innovative, revolutionizing product. Tim Cook hasn’t really done anything, but maintain the status quo and leverage up the firm. Similar to another poster, I’m cautiously optimistic and exercising a bit of professional skepticism.
Also, AMZN is similar to NFLX regarding short sellers. I remember two years ago I was long NFLX and telling everyone to buy. I got into a lengthy debate with a guy on Wall Street about NFLX. He was all about shorting the stock. and used the PE as his rationale. He told me longing the stock was the worst investment ever. Needless to say, he’s still a bit sour about it, lol.
^ yep, I would not sell right now either, given the pent up demand for larger phones, expansion in China and Japan, and a free option on whatever product they might release.
What is your point? Some probably inexperienced investor was whining about short sellers (probably after getting blown out on crappy investments in the past). I pointed out that there is no such thing as a short selling jackass. The majority of short selling publications are from a small group of ~2 dozen publishers (or less) that have a demonstrated track record of making money on the short side. These are the investors the original whiner was referring to, and he is objectively wrong in his statement. You then suggested this was anecdotal, which it’s not.
@bromion, not critiquing. I’m just genuinely interested, since there are so many people now railing against active management. I’d want to see how short sellers generate returns and how the same practices could work for long investor, even if it’s just through risk avoidance.
Totally agree that people who complain about shorts are compensating for a poor investment decision.
If you were to collect and then read all 200-300 short reports from Citron, Muddy Waters, GeoInvesting, StreetSweeper, Alfred Little, etc. you might learn something about risk avoidance. It look me a long time to do that so I’m not sure I want to give that way for free but there are clearly recurring themes. Frauds gonna fraud, and there are only so many ways a public vehicle can commit fraud, so it would pay to be aware of that. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that short sellers make better long investors (as the two skills are not entirely related) but I would say that any good short seller is at least more likely to avoid doing stupid stuff on the long side. There are lots of bad long only investors who fall victim to what I view as very predictable traps.
I’m not entirely sure what your question is so I may have missed the mark.