“Obama’s new SEC appointee will get rid of the uptick rule and clamp down hard on the crooks.” I know what the uptick is, I guess you want it back, if it hasn’t been reinstated which I thought I had missed completely. Weren’t you pounding the table on going short a few months ago?
Ok, So I’ve been thinking about the scenarios for Citi today and I’ve come up with this assuming that govt wont let the company as a whole “fail” or go bankrupt. I think its a safe assumption based on CDS spreads are only around 260s last time I checked as oppose to 500 back in november. 1. We see another AIG, common gets wiped, Fed takes on another 2.2 trillion dollars on its Balance Sheet. 2. We see another Bear Stearns, FDIC breaks up the parts completley, puts everything up for auction with some type of guarentee against losses on bad assets (as second in line to take losses), private money bids comes in. 3. Pandit delivers a hail mary and shareholders like what they hear. So far I’m going to go with the “good bank, bad bank” scenario where bad assets placed in the bad, and what remains is the true earnings power of the remaining pieces if any. Wildcard: Government steps in again. Top of my head, I think the government finds a way to budget more taxpayer money, takes all these troubled assets, hires a bunch of asset managers like PIMCO, Blackrock, etc. to price these things and they are auctioned back into the market in the future. check out http://cnnmoney.mobi/money/latest_news/latest_news/detail/117933/full;jsessionid=03AEE3ECFF61688AAAD710947832D1DB. Its a good analysis, which kind of eliminates option 2 because I doubt they would guarentee against losses for overseas bidders as well. If Option 1 happens, my opinion is that Shareholders of any bank know they dont have a prayer anymore. BAC/Merrill first, huntington, alot of the regionals, so on and so forth. Don’t see this as a high probability. So that leaves option 3 plus a wildcard. Any thoughts of how you think this will play out? any scenarios that were overlooked? Best Case Scenario I think is what William Smith of SAM is saying. Monetize Citi Assets.
One more thing. If it came down to the worst case scenario, What comes first, Government Buys Common or nationalize the whole thing?
HSBC down 6 bucks since my post…just letting ya’ll know but im sure everyone is aware of the bank doom going on
Maybe BofA will go belly up?
Bump…here’s the thread on BofA and Citi. At least there is one person (OP) on this board concerned about thit shitestorm.
bump another 6 for HBC on a highway to hell here boys better get the bunker built and load up on ammo like i said
Too bad i live in NYC and i cant get my hands on any weapons. I think i might just buy a house in PA just for ammo/resources storage
In such a situation your guns will be useless. There will be military rule accross the nation.