^he has been like that for a few months…
Ha! I noticed too and snapped at him but then felt bad about it. Thought maybe I was on my period or something and being too “sensitive”. Poor Ghibli… you need a hug, dear 
I don’t really understand the question. I guess you set rigid trade rules using “indicators” or something, don’t know anything about that way of thinking personally. P/E is just one thing I look at, and synthesize with everything else. For example in 2007 it wasn’t that high, the earnings where there, but they were high risk earnings!
That’s true, it’s very noisy out there…and people get confused by all that noise. I like unexpected events and global panic!!
Like in January, H-shares hit P/E 6X, meanwhile S&P was 24X…given probable country growth rates, does that makes sense? Well, I didn’t think so, but at the time the HKers were all freaked out about “oh the fed is going to raise rates, let’s get our money out of China, or whatever”. I don’t need to micro-analyze every H-share’s financials, just play the whole H-index on the bet that the Fed CAN’T raise rates much (they are backed into a corner with propped up equity markets, and USG debt). Although I did FSA on individual names, it’s mostly a macro-econ bet.
Hugs!! Be happy, I just got a fat consulting gig, soon I suspect I’ll be too busy building nerdy models to bother you.
Reuters – earnings growth for 2016 is now expected to be 0.2%.
And so all the made up forecasts have “poof”, vanished. Matt, Ohai, and others all thought forward P/E was 19X cause that’s what the “authorities” said, well nope that didn’t happen, forward P/E was always 24X like I said.
And no reason to think earnings will pick up in 2017, in fact high probability of recession. Why don’t they ever say “earning expected to decline next year by 15%, and so forward P/E is 29.8X”? Oh, I know why. Because these “analysts” are salespeople.
^ so i’m making adjustments and selling the market to myself and you’re using the numbers that regulation demands and i’m the guy listening to the “authorities”? you just said, you use the unadjusted p/e as one of my inputs and then go on to defend it as if it is the only indicator. hint, stick to other indicators if the p/e you’re using becomes worse than useless (i.e. indicates the opposite of what you want from an indicator) at the tails. tails are all that matter when it comes to indicators. tell me when to sell and avoid a 50% drawdown and tell me when to buy and participate in a 100% rebound. it doesn’t matter if an indicator is telling you the market is slightly under or overvalued in the middle as you should be fully invested anyway.
^You’re arguing with a guy that used martingale at a roulette table. If he doesn’t understand the independence of each spin of a roulette wheel, markets are definitely way over his head.
Pretty sure you know when you’re shedding the lining of your uterus out of your vagina. If you aren’t aware when it’s happening, there’s a good app called Clue to help you keep track.
^Can you provide more detail on the process?
Sure, menstruation is a very important part of a man’s life. Understanding what it is, when it’s happening, and how to make you woman more comfortable during her monthly bleed makes for a happy union.
So, every 28 days (give or take a week or so) a woman sheds the lining of her uterus along with the unused egg that your lazy sperm didn’t infiltrate. During the actual menstruation process, your lady may experience some discomfort, but we (men) don’t really care too much about that. The part we need to watch out for is PMS. This occurs a couple days before her actual period. During PMS many women turn into the personification of rage and irrationality. A man’s only defense is chocolate. Be sure she has access to lots of chocolate.
Some other fun facts:
- Every girl is born with all the eggs she’ll use during her entire lifetime (until menopause anyway). That’s a weirdly uncomfortable thought for some reason.
- There’s something called “period poops” that I don’t really understand and don’t really want to know more about. Suffice it to say, they’re worse poops than non-period evacuations.
- Women’s breasts get larger during and shortly after their period.
- As a cruel joke, god made it so many women are very horny during their period. This is only a problem if you are easily grossed out and/or don’t have towels readily available.
- A group of women living together will start to cycle together. It’s speculated this has something to do with witchcraft.
Thanks. You seem to be quite pragmatic.
You’re making things way too complicated. Just don’t use made up numbers but industry salespeople. Basic sense.
Yup, and I’ve left with more money than I arrived with every time. Basic math.
Q2 sucked, Q3 now expected to suck, years of suck, all time highs…
Cure for Sick Profits Eludes S&P 500 as Rally Swells Valuations
Nice headline: Earnings Miracle Needed to Get S&P 500 Values Out of Clouds
Forward earnings consistently overestimated by the “analysts”, this time they will be right? 
