^Lol, I’m still pissed at McLeod (we had a huge argument about the H-model/3 stage model last year) and refuse to listen to him. j/k @mwvt9: I wasn’t answering a question pertaining to “overconfidence” but rather pertaining to the nature of trading when a position is a loser (this is loss aversion and explained by the Ebullience Cycle reading to an extent ) or a winner (explained in PR reading). As far as I remember thus far the only other setting I have seen overconfidence directly ties to trading was in the context of trading too much. I agree with the definition you gave as it is the standard one I have seen thus far, but not directly related to trading or sbmfj’s question.
adavydov7 - I don’t see where I said you were wrong. You explained the same thing that sbmfj did. Stock goes down, investor adds.
swaptiongamma Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > We will need a lot more of ‘M* power’ (mwvt9, > McLeod, maratikus) to help us out of this. Their sitting for the exam set last year’s curve that resulted in the sub-50% pass rate.
I am sure McLeod scored somewhere shy of nineties [%], only closely followed by plyon.
@theta: No its not, adding is what an investor SHOULD DO, in reality he sits on his hands and doesn’t open his statements. See pages 86-87 as I have noted above. My reply had nothing to do with overconfidence in a price target nor is discussed in that context in the texts, it simply addressed trading behavior of investors related to losing or winning positions.
This could also be exhibiting anchoring. For instance, investor buys ABC manufacturing at 10/share with target of 12/share. After a poor ISM manufacturing number the stock price falls to 9/share. The investor purchases more stock. He is exhibiting anchoring as he failed to adjust his expectations in light of new information and is anchored to his orignal price estimate.
I actually liked estate planning! Wow!
>>Posted by: 1morelevel >>Date: February 2, 2010 01:57AM >>This could also be exhibiting anchoring. >>For instance, investor buys ABC manufacturing at 10/share with target of 12/share. >>After a poor ISM manufacturing number the stock price falls to 9/share. The investor >>purchases more stock. He is exhibiting anchoring as he failed to adjust his >>expectations in light of new information and is anchored to his orignal price estimate. I thought anchoring is trying to stick to something irrelevant when there is ambiguity. Even though known for not good forecasting, most people anchor their expectations to analyst’s price, as they have nothing else to hold on.
CF_AHHHHHHHHH Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I just can’t figure out how the hell they’re going > to ask questions on it and make them difficult? http://www.analystforum.com/phorums/read.php?13,918047,1019215
i decided to listen to this podcast to help cement the readings, it’s pretty useful i think http://www.cfawebcasts.org/courses/725/player_wmp_hi.html