Oh of course it;s worth the backtrack in first. 100k Alaska airmiles for ~22 hours of first class pampering! If I wanted the direct route, I’d have flown Houston-NYC on United, and then NYC-Milan on Emirates in coach since that flight is only ~7-8 hrs.
OK, now Scotland and Northern Ireland, leave this isolated island…
Yeah this is a fuckup. These transnational trading blocks are a good thing that have brought countries closer together and been good for trade and strategic cooperation. Cooler heads really needed to prevail and come up with a solution that benefited both the EU and the UK, and instead decided to go with divorce.
Plus, now it looks like the Scots will again try to declare independence. Bye bye UK.
It’s going to be a bloodbath. Over reaction in my opinion, but markets always hated uncertainties
^Beyond fear pushing down stocks, I don’t understand why the US futures are dropping so hard. I think these next few days will be good buying opportunities
Also, can someone explain to me why the UK markets will suffer the most? The EU is a failed institution that should have collapsed years ago. The trade amongst these countries will continue, especially UK to Germany,Italy,France.
Maybe I’ve been watching oil and gas too much but, and probably a naive question… what’s your definition of a bloodbath? I’m seeing 3.5-4% down on s&p futures, yesterday up around 1.3%. Should we be expecting it to tank much, much worst on open?
Last night I watched as S&P futures were halted limit down at 1999. Since then things have calmed down, but I am curious what will happen to equities at open when there is no limit down condition to save them…
About 50% of UK imports and exports are with the EU, and this is amount is much smaller from the EU’s perspective. UK would also lose some trade agreements that EU has negotiated as a block (although it is uncertain if this is good or bad). Furthermore, a lot of UK’s service industry relies on immigration and work permits with the EU. For instance, London banks don’t need to localize offices in EU countries, since UK is part of EU. Now, UK banks must must move offices to EU countries.
The referendum also increases uncertainty in UK politics. David Cameron has resigned and the new path of government is unclear. The Brexit might motivate Scotland or Ireland, which are pro EU, to hold further seccession referendums on top of that. Asset prices generally reflect sentiment as well as fundamentals. This great uncertainty in the UK weigh on sentiment.
(On that note, I don’t like to make predictive statements, but the past few times when SPX has gapped down like this, it has rebounded, as the shock from the negative event subsides. I am not saying this will have to happen this time, but the market does have a history of this behavior. Compared to say, the UK market itself, the movement in US market in this case probably weighs more towards sentiment than fundamentals.)
Some people say UK exit will prompt other EU countries to exit as well. I’m not sure which country would be a clear candidate for this though. Other EU countries tend to be much more reliant on the EU, and the fact that most are also tied by the single currency makes a transition much more complicated.
Same thoughts here. Not even looking at my portfolio today. Wish i wad more liquid to pick up some deals
David Cameron is resigning too… wow
I know that’s extremely cheap and if he could spend his money on only 1 thing it would be to save for retirement, so I’ll take pleasure in asking him how his portfolio is doing today…
I was thinking about that ohai. Is london going to lose its place alongside nyc as top financial hub?
London will be incrementally less influential in finance than before, but they will undoubtedly remain as the largest financial center in the region. It is not like Middle East, US or Hong Kong financial institutions will now prefer to do business with Frankfurt or Paris firms, given the lack of cultural ties and language barrier (not to mention the fact that some of these European countries are downright socialist and thus, unfriendly to banks). For London, it is a matter of degrees of damage, I guess.
sell side research/wall street stress tests etc all have this sentiment which i have read. Where i disagree is how impactful the trade agreements will really mean. Britiain is a net importer and i assume countries will want them to continue to purchase their goods and services so i foresee little change in that respect. As for immigration, there is a 2 year transitory period where UK will follow the same rules as currently. Now, with this uncertainty perhaps there will be sell side pressure on UK and EU countries. That money needs to be allocated some where and I think the US would be a good safe haven esp as the USD strengthens. Que the central banks to ease fears and we have a quick profit opportunity within the next week.
The only surprising thing for me is that people are surprised that a majority of English people voted to leave. They never wanted to be part of the EU in the 1st place or understood the benefits of it, instead relying on Daily Mail headlines about hoovers and examples of “polical correctness gone mad” like such horrible things as human rights and the freedom of movement.
Contrary to popular belief, the Scots don’t hate the English as a whole, just the segments of the population who lack the self awareness to realise that the United Kingdom didn’t “build the world as we know it” but we invaded it and colonised it. We are not there anymore.
Following decades of sterlised, nicey nicey politics where both major parties gravitated to the centre right we then had the financial crisis and onslaught of austerity, followed by the MP expenses scandal followed by the media phone hacking scandal leaving Joe Public with no trust of our biggest industry, our elected leaders or our media. In extremely British fashion, we were too polite to tackle the issues head on we end up protest voting our way out of the EU.
So a nation obsessed with property ownership just crashed their own property market, fucked their currency and pissed off their main trading counterparties. The mood in the country is toxic now, lets just see how bad it gets when people slip into negative equity in their cherished properties while their mortgages sky rocket, COL goes through the roof and they find out what it’s really like to be have no power over their own destiny.
fucking hope i’m wrong…
double.
Im so happy it’s a leave vote - finally my faith in the UK voting public is restored. Onwards and upwards!
anyone taking a dip into bcs?
Long Dublin.
I was hoping to see more value today then I’m seeing. This is nothing. HSBC only 5%? I’ll pass.