Brexit

[Sweep_the_Leg]

U.S. stocks already clawing their way back up. Overreaction from last night. No biggie for domestic investors.

[ohai]

It’s a liquidity thing I think. Why is NKY down 8%? They were just the only market open at midnight UK time, so everyone sold them. Same thing for US futures - too many sellers at night, and not enough liquidity. All trading desks were open last night and people were hedging things. So, when the market opened this morning, things get bid up again.

[whatsyourgovt]

Soros kills it, again:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/soros-looks-set-to-make-a-killing-on-brexit-result-2016-06-24

[igor555]

italian banks are taking a beating. those dudes were screwed before the brexit anyway

[system]

Protectionism is coming back. This is the time for states to stop China from abusive free trade. #DeathbyChina.

[krokodilizm]

@whatsyourgovt

Soro’s kills it, again:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/soros-looks-set-to-make-a-killing-on-brexit-result-2016-06-24

Except this time UK pulls out stronger than back in 1990s. He positioned himself for a 20% GBP drop while it plunged only 10%. Does he seriously believe UK is headed for a recession/crisis?

[Sweep_the_Leg]

@whatsyourgovt

Soros kills it, again:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/soros-looks-set-to-make-a-killing-on-brexit-result-2016-06-24

Even though I’m a well documented fan of gold/silver, I’m not a huge promoter of gold as a safe haven per se. Too often investors see the market go down by 4% and gold doesn’t do anything and people freak out on gold for not protecting their portfolio.

This scenario, an extreme global (or at least European) shock to the market, particularly the currency market and anything that will cause rates to remain low/negative for an extended period, is when gold is a safe haven.

I guess my point is, the term “safe haven” shouldn’t be thrown around when people are really looking for an equity hedge. Safe haven is a place to go when unexpected shit hits the fan. Gold is doing exactly what it should be doing.

[hei.so]

Can anyone from the UK explain? Was immigration/refugees a huge factor in leaving?

[former_trader]

Cameron should have never held a referendum. I understand that was his election promise and that members of his own party were pushing for it, but this was a terrible political gamble. This is the first time I witness the person initiating the referendum defending the status quo. It was politically more astute to face the electorate in a few years over this broken promise (or just resign before the next election) and have the pro brexits (which are mostly far right politicians) have the burden of actually winning an election where there would be many political parties and a myriad of different issues to vote for.

[Griingo]

@whatsyourgovt

Soros kills it, again:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/soros-looks-set-to-make-a-killing-on-brexit-result-2016-06-24

Reading about Soros’ positions was what pushed me to pull the trigger on shorting the UK. That and the emotional hedge that it provided.

Trying to find some value on the long side now to even out the extensive losses I’ll probably be forced to realise when the London property market bubble bursts.

[Black_Swan]

@former_trader

Cameron should have never held a referendum. I understand that was his election promise and that members of his own party were pushing for it, but this was a terrible political gamble. This is the first time I witness the person initiating the referendum defending the status quo. It was politically more astute to face the electorate in a few years over this broken promise (or just resign before the next election) and have the pro brexits (which are mostly far right politicians) have the burden of actually winning an election where there would be many political parties and a myriad of different issues to vote for.

Politically, yes. In the interest of democracy as an independent bystander, you could argue he did the right thing.

[Griingo]

@former_trader

Cameron should have never held a referendum. I understand that was his election promise and that members of his own party were pushing for it, but this was a terrible political gamble. This is the first time I witness the person initiating the referendum defending the status quo. It was politically more astute to face the electorate in a few years over this broken promise (or just resign before the next election) and have the pro brexits (which are mostly far right politicians) have the burden of actually winning an election where there would be many political parties and a myriad of different issues to vote for.

huge gamble. he’ll forever be known as the man that triggered the split of the United Kingdoms of England and Scotland and the reunification of Ireland, all because of a promise to some Tory backbenchers he made to get himself the leadership vote.

[Black_Swan]

@gringo\_bob

@former_trader

Cameron should have never held a referendum. I understand that was his election promise and that members of his own party were pushing for it, but this was a terrible political gamble. This is the first time I witness the person initiating the referendum defending the status quo. It was politically more astute to face the electorate in a few years over this broken promise (or just resign before the next election) and have the pro brexits (which are mostly far right politicians) have the burden of actually winning an election where there would be many political parties and a myriad of different issues to vote for.

huge gamble. he’ll forever be known as the man that triggered the split of the United Kingdoms of England and Scotland and the reunification of Ireland, all because of a promise to some Tory backbenchers he made to get himself the leadership vote.

Yeah, but TBH, if all that was holding the UK together was fringe membereship to the Euro, they really will be better on their own over the long haul.

[igor555]

talking to some folks in UK earlier, they are pissed. salaries dropped by 10% overnight.

who are the folks that are actually happy about this?

this is my fav quote so far

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-brexit-fallout-the-bloodbath-starts-with-these-stocks-2016-06-24

Fiach Kelly @fiachkelly

Bloke on BBC who voted Out says he is shocked and didn’t expect result or Cameron resignation, is now worried about uncertainty. #facepalm

[hei.so]

^ http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/man-who-voted-for-leave-says-he-thought-his-vote-wouldnt-count-wins-moron-of-the-year-award-5964450/

[igor555]

^what a turd

[Griingo]

@hei.so

Can anyone from the UK explain? Was immigration/refugees a huge factor in leaving?

huge factor. There’s no doubt in my mind that the vote would have been different if the migrant crisis hadn’t happened when it did.

The UK has never properly got its head around migration, it was never discussed, never talked about by politicans due to the fear of appearing racist. In England they can’t fly their flag because it is considered racist, some insane knock on effect of colonising half the planet.

[hpracing007]

@hei.so

^ http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/man-who-voted-for-leave-says-he-thought-his-vote-wouldnt-count-wins-moron-of-the-year-award-5964450/

LOL

[Griingo]

@Black_Swan

@gringo\_bob

@former_trader

Cameron should have never held a referendum. I understand that was his election promise and that members of his own party were pushing for it, but this was a terrible political gamble. This is the first time I witness the person initiating the referendum defending the status quo. It was politically more astute to face the electorate in a few years over this broken promise (or just resign before the next election) and have the pro brexits (which are mostly far right politicians) have the burden of actually winning an election where there would be many political parties and a myriad of different issues to vote for.

huge gamble. he’ll forever be known as the man that triggered the split of the United Kingdoms of England and Scotland and the reunification of Ireland, all because of a promise to some Tory backbenchers he made to get himself the leadership vote.

Yeah, but TBH, if all that was holding the UK together was fringe membereship to the EU , they really will be better on their own over the long haul.

It’s just timing though, it’s a 52% vote at a snapshot in time from a very very uninformed electorate. people are only now considering what this might mean in practice.

The union between Scotland and England had been strengthening again post '14 but all the EU referendum has done is highlighted again to the people of Scotland that their vote doesn’t count, while simultaneously taking away the downside that stopped them voting out 18 months ago, ie economic upheaval which they’ll now face either way. It’s just a series of unfortunate events

Also FTFY

[Matt_Likes_Analysis]

@ohai

Some people say UK exit will prompt other EU countries to exit as well. I’m not sure which country would be a clear candidate for this though. Other EU countries tend to be much more reliant on the EU, and the fact that most are also tied by the single currency makes a transition much more complicated.

i’ll come out and call Le Pen winning the French presidential election in April. if that happens, the EU will effectively be a thing of the past in April 2017. a much weaker French economy will give her a hand. there’s your global recession. bond yields in all peripheral countries would spike to double digits overnight. game over. this is what investors are fearing today.

also, Deutsche is so undercapitalized that it could die simply from European capital flight and slightly rising sovereign bond yields. if Deutsche dies, financial contagion ensues to some degree, even if they get bailed out.