itmonkey Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > You can tweak your model to see the impact of each > of the risks… (fx changes, country risk, > inflation, etc). How are you going to do those if > you don’t have a model? exactly. we bang out data tables and use solver all night long, baby.
I havent read all the responses so this may have been answered. I work on buyside as an associate analyst. I cover several sectors (energy, transports, alt energy, even some work on materials and ag). Anyways…my primary task is to write buy recs and create models. Buy recs for our core holdings are generally 20 pages, less for recommendation of inclusion in one of our funds. Overviews can be much more, 50-100 pages. IMO - our research is much more in depth than much of the sell side. We arent as concerned with quarterly forecasts. We look to be directionally correct as opposed to precisely right/wrong. We use sell side, but only for background information. Much of what we do is talking to people in the industry. i.e…we actually have a guy who counts logging trucks for us as they enter a mill in the pacific northwest - our pulp and paper guy uses that. We also have assistants monitor local newspapers and ‘for rent’ ads in towns where we are expecting a mill to close - anything to get ahead, right? Anyways…i guess we differ from sell side in that we dont forecast quarterlies and we dont care what the sell side says…its all short term view these days anyways…long term used to be 3-5 years…now its 9-12 months. They have to cater to the hedgies b.c they are the ones who are are putting volume through their trading desks.
Last point - responding to Bsider… From my experience…I haven’t ever really used a model to tell me what price the stock is worth. Its only worth what someone will buy it from you for… My models are more about monitoring. We always say…Its not whether you are right or wrong…its how well you monitor the bet you are making.
jbisback Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I work on buyside as an associate analyst. I cover > several sectors (energy, transports, alt energy, > even some work on materials and ag). Anyways…my > primary task is to write buy recs and create > models. Buy recs for our core holdings are > generally 20 pages, less for recommendation of > inclusion in one of our funds. Overviews can be > much more, 50-100 pages. > blackrock?
> > My models are more about monitoring. > > We always say…Its not whether you are right or > wrong…its how well you monitor the bet you are > making. I’m very curious… Your models don’t sound like company’s financials… Are those demand/supply models (akin to industry research)?