drs Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > You voluntarily went long Bear Stearns? No, I said (again) that it is a good buy on Saturday, before the biggest drop since 87 today. I said something similar late last summer when it got down to $100. In fairness it went back up to $120 a few weeks later, but I was talking LT. I just can’t fathom BSC going bust, and hence I think there is a lot of firm value. With Citi not so much. It’s a garbage brand. It has been destroying value for years and though it will likely pop at some point, I really don’t see a lot of intrinsic value there. It’s bloated with too many crappy lines of business. I did say a major bank would go bust, though I didn’t think it would be a BB and I’ve been liking BSC so it would be a bitter irony.
I guess these subprime loans are like writing naked call options and the market just goes up and up and the writer has to hold on to those options he wrote. But can’t these banks disclose how many loans they have at least?
BosyBillups Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What do you think will happen to C if the Fed > announced, as a surprise, that it was going to > start buying Mortgage Backed Securities? +10? NOTHING these clowns do would surprise me at this point.
CFA_Halifax Wrote: > > I did say a major bank would go bust, though I > didn’t think it would be a BB and I’ve been liking > BSC so it would be a bitter irony. This has been said by many a pundit, and IMO, already has happened (even though they may have been or will be “bailed” out): CFC, Wamu, Bear, C, and numerous small local banks. Anyways, all of those combine cause way more damage than one big bank going under. The crazi thing about this is that we don’t know what it’s going to hit next. Who would have thought that Muni Bond Insurers would be so important? And then, another chain reaction this set off, etc. Now I’m hearing that there are “grain elevator” banks in the Midwest, who essentially help the flow of grains between farmers and the trading pits, are under duress. This could be the next shoe…
CFA_Halifax Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > BosyBillups Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > What do you think will happen to C if the Fed > > announced, as a surprise, that it was going to > > start buying Mortgage Backed Securities? +10? > > NOTHING these clowns do would surprise me at this > point. Yea, but it’s the market that matters, not you (no offense). What would the stock do?
the loweset the stock has been since 1987…there is no way it will be bought out. At worst, it may sell off some segments (i.e. GM sold GMAC)
^ you are saying that based on what?
I kind of agree with the Sov. Wealth. Fund thesis here. Willy
Did you see the interest rate C is paying ADIA on the converts it sold them… 11%! They must have been desperate.
^I think that hits upon the main point. The question with all these banks is not will they go bust (of course not), but rather they need to raise large amount of capital, meaning that cuirrent equity holders get diluted to hell. Most rescue rights issues are at around a 40% discount (look at SocGen) - that 11%pa is looking cheap relative to that!
Well…I think we have our answer in terms of the Fed
I kinda wish I bought C yesterday…
C pricing below book? They will be able to fight through this credit mess and when they do everyone will not beleive they didnt see it coming, C is at 35 BYE absent of a major buyout disclosure, have built a position in C over the past couple weeks GenY
GenY Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > C pricing below book? They will be able to fight > through this credit mess and when they do everyone > will not beleive they didnt see it coming, C is at > 35 BYE absent of a major buyout > > disclosure, have built a position in C over the > past couple weeks > > GenY nice disclosure
This is a scam. The FED is the only entity on the planet that is less accountable for their capital than the chinese or the arabs… so now they’re going to step up and buy a bunch of crap debt from the bankers. Our leaders are SPINELESS! Spitzer should get up and say, “I like sex. Forgive me. My wife ain’t doin’ it for me. I’m still a good Governor and I ain’t quitting. Business as usual. If you don’t like it then seeya.”
I hear Eliot Spitzer is unloading his C position to pay for those hooker bills.
highparkcfa Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I hear Eliot Spitzer is unloading his C position > to pay for those hooker bills. LOL I was going to make the joke of “How many shares of C would it take for Elliot to pay his bil”. Appartently he was setting up a bit of a collateral account with the Emperor Club!~
virginCFAhooker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > This is a scam. The FED is the only entity on the > planet that is less accountable for their capital > than the chinese or the arabs… so now they’re > going to step up and buy a bunch of crap debt from > the bankers. Our leaders are SPINELESS! Spitzer > should get up and say, “I like sex. Forgive me. > My wife ain’t doin’ it for me. I’m still a good > Governor and I ain’t quitting. Business as usual. > If you don’t like it then seeya.” Thus ignoring the fundamental hypocracy of politicians, especially crusading ones. That guy is too sanctimonious for words. Other than sanctimonious of course.
Why does book value matter for something like C? Isn’t the problem that we don’t really know what most of those book assets should be valued at anyway? I mean, if we’re counting buildings and aircraft and PCs as part of book value, ok, but for financials, the book values are computed using the same suspect methods that got us into this mess in the first place?
No, book value is very important with financials because they’re supposed to mark everything to market and most of their assets are financial.