Right! There are periods of a rising stock market and rising rates - but off a pandemic?
I don’t see any scenario where central banks give up power and let us disrupt the power held by global elites. I think, vaccine passports, facial recognition, and all the monitoring the government does is to keep control. So people that say Bitcoin is decentralized and the government can’t do anything, I think are wrong.
The US cannot be a super power forever. Every great empire collapses at some point. I would rather Finland be the next super power, though.
i think spy can keep of rising. its expensive, but with inflation, you can get massive earnings growth, granted with inflation you usually have crappier multiples. anyways im on the camp that markets should tank. but i recognize that nominal returns could continue to go up. but historically real returns have been crappier during inflationary environments.
if rates do rise, then im on the camp that markets should fall, as most will flock to higher risk free returns. this is imo the true great rotation.
everyone has more cash because the federal reserve printed that cash and gave it to either the govt who in turn gave it to poors. or those who own bonds which is the rich. the rich then sold the crap bonds for stocks. the majority of all the bond buying if the fed reserve.
i wouldnt pay attention to corporate buybacks. they have a shitty track record. they usually buy a ton at the top and not buy anything at the bottom.
i wouldnt worry abotu delta variant and rising cases, that is a temporary issue much like every pandemic in history. there are some talk that supply chains will shift in the long run. but i dont buy the bs. they will revert back once everything settles.
lol there aint no way finland will be a superpower as of right now. look at gdp and gdp growth. ireland has a better shot. GDP by Country - Worldometer
china is the only one id consider a superpower right now. and at current trajectory will exceed the us within 10 years. anyways it’ll be interesting what happens to china with the socialist poiicies they’re implementing and big govt taking a more active approach. anyways im a big fan of big govt. you just need technocrats running the show.
in terms of net worth i have hit another milestone. over 600k. i have decided for net worth calc not to include student debt. i figure if i was a corporation. i would offset that debt with intangible assets anyways so my net worth should be unaffected. so f u guys. my increasing monthly payments over time should hinder the growth though assuming my cash flows dont outpace which it prolly will. as of right now my CAGR since inception is about 20% vs 15% for spy.
How much negative yielding debt is floating around in Europe? Seems like that would have to work itself out first long before we see rates spike in the US. Even then, the yield chasers are probably lined up around the world chomping at the bit to buy up whatever the fed decides to let them chew on.
on a nominal basis about 18 trillion vs 281 trillion in total debt in the world. on a real basis. im pretty sure its far more considering all us government debt has negative real rates. lol
came out of retirement to let everyone know the SPY is at stupid levels and the turn is just so obvious. corporate profits to GDP is ~14%, versus a pre-COVID high of ~12%, an internet age average of ~10% and all-time average of ~7%. pandemic support ending should cut earnings by ~15% (14% to 12%), rising wages and input costs (commodities, corporate debts costs rising from lowest ever levels, etc.) should cut by another ~20% (12% to 10%). So earnings looking like they’re about to drop ~30% sometime in the upcoming year or so and yet the market is still trading at a ~20% premium to average on these falling earnings, even when using forward earnings which are likely optimistic? SPY’s days are numbered.
TINA will turn to GTFO pretty quickly. TINA only works after GTFO has already manifested itself. Is manifested a word?
its interesting there are supply side issues in terms of cost happening now, but they are easily passing it to consumers. so most are increasing earnings and thats on the traditional boring companies. i think its also important to point out that the breakdown of the S&P 500 is very different now. the 6 largest stocks make up 25% of the S&P 500 and are all tech related and growing their earnings by a ton. now i’m not saying they are valued correctly, but the fact is they are growing strong. i read some fun fact that superbowl prices for ads, thats traditional ad spending is up 18% in pricing. that shows a very competitive market flushed with cash.
SPX will touch the 100 day moving average on Friday when everyone is rolling their hedges, and then on Monday the buying machines will switch right back on.
