Maybe I am in the minority here, but I doubt there will be a fiscal cliff. Imagine this. Your country has a problem. The media has talked themselves hoarse about it. Not solving it will increase unemployment, decrease credit rating, poison your water wells, whatever. And the solution is… SPEND MORE MONEY! Not your own money of course. Gullible idiots all over the world WANT to give you their money in exchange for 30-year IOUs. When you run out of those suckers, an obliging Fed will buy whatever crap you print. As a politician, what do you do? What. do. you. do? Tough choice.
I’m 99% sure they will pass something to avoid the fiscal cuts, tax increases etc. Not doing so would be career suicide for everyone in congress. However, there might be some panic in the markets while these clowns haggle and hold various measures hostage until the last minute.