The US was an emerging market only 100 years ago - who’s to say China can’t make the same jump we did
The ones on top will not let go so easily…
Even if the trend continues and China’s % share of global GDP equals that of the US’ in a couple of years, its huge population will still be a problem. With almost 4 times US’ population its per capita GDP is alot lower meaning that the average standarad of living is alot lower. To use a fast food analogy. While the average Americans continue to enjoy their double quarter pounder with cheese, the average Chinese will be happy with a whitecastle slider.
LMAO, I had to Google White Castle “Sliders”. Good point, measured on a PPP basis, when they two nations cross China will have a much lower per capita GDP, although I wouldn’t say that translates to lower “standard of living”. Example, despite not having a lot of income the average Chinese currently enjoy huge feasts of healthy awesome food with friends and family on a daily basis while Americans, despite having tons of income enjoy a sack of McD or BK alone most days. We need to stop the food services stuff cause it don’t translate, maybe cars is a better good to use…we will still be driving Civics while they are riding bikes… Edit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:WhiteCastleBurger.jpg (wow, that looks good :/)
The fast food business is to a large extend poster child of the gov’t agricultural subsidy programs of the 80’s. Imagine if we start subsidizing fruits and veggies, Micky D will go belly up…
That’s better. Good work fellas. I knew you had it in you. PPP, that old chestnut. See this is what happens when you finish the CFA and your brain atrophies. That is why the AF is so useful. Disclosure, I had to read a bit from wiki to make the leap. Picco, your mum is from Turkey? (gobble, not feathers).
Muddahudda Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > That’s better. Good work fellas. I knew you had it > in you. PPP, that old chestnut. See this is what > happens when you finish the CFA and your brain > atrophies. That is why the AF is so useful. > Disclosure, I had to read a bit from wiki to make > the leap. > > Picco, your mum is from Turkey? (gobble, not > feathers). Gobble, not feathers? Pardoned me atrophied brain, but could it be they are referring to the same thing?
Muddahudda Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > That’s better. Good work fellas. I knew you had it > in you. PPP, that old chestnut. See this is what > happens when you finish the CFA and your brain > atrophies. That is why the AF is so useful. > Disclosure, I had to read a bit from wiki to make > the leap. > > Picco, your mum is from Turkey? (gobble, not > feathers). Gobble, not feathers? Pardon me atrophied brain, but could it be they are referring to the same thing?
This China-will-rule-the-world crap in 5 yrs stuff is ridiculous. Evveryone said the same thing about Japan in the 80s and early 90s. Then they went into the tank for 10 yrs. Why doesn’t anyone consider the possibility of a lull? Or at least declining growth.? Their main resource is cheap labor.
Picco Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Muddahudda Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > > Picco, your mum is from Turkey? (gobble, not > > feathers). > > > Gobble, not feathers? Pardon me atrophied brain, > but could it be they are referring to the same > thing? Google: gobble slang It’s a British / Irish thing
Japan was played in the financial market. More specifically they lost control to their currency exchange. China apparently learned from their neighbor. So I think the only threat for this trend would be from its inside. Yet I cannot say how its internal conflicts would burst out.
A big factor contributing to China’s current comparative advantage lies in relatively cheaper oil. If oil price goes off the roof, China’s export won’t be so competitive anymore. Who knows…
Don’t its competitors purchase oil with same price?
Japan’s story is amazing in that it become a world power in a relatively short time starting right after when Perry sailed into Edo harbor. With a size a little larger than California and half the US population, the country is the world’s second largest economy, essentially half of the US’s. However, Japan, South Korea, etc… never could surpass the US due mainly to population. Other reasons exist, but the population is what dominates here. Now China has ~1.3Bn people… Even if the Chinese never amount to the human capital per person as the US, Japan, etc…, which is mostly likely NOT going to be the case as they are very hard-working, 1.3Bn people is def. going to create a massive economy that will surely dwarf the US. Personally, I would love to see the US remain dominant forever as I am patriot, but realistically its not going to happen. Indian & China will both tower over the US in the next century as long as Armageddon doesn’t happen. If the US is able to effectively assimilate new immigrants, then we will still remain in a very dominant role as we are the 3rd most populous country in the world.
andrew330 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Don’t its competitors purchase oil with same > price? Yes, but if it costs $2 to produce but $5 to ship over to America, I’d rather setup a shop in Mexico rather than in China.
We might see a divided world in the future with China and India as leading economic powers and US dominating the military. No absolute hegemon, not a very good scenario in my mind…
Oh you mean transportation cost. I thought it was raw material. But still, is freight considered an important part of product cost?
phBOOM Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > We might see a divided world in the future with > China and India as leading economic powers and US > dominating the military. No absolute hegemon, not > a very good scenario in my mind… Right, that’s where it goes. Back to the fat drunk guy hanging out in the back of the train eating burgers image…he also has a big shotgun, a lot of greed, and will swap morality for $$$, that is not such a good scenario in my mind either. The thing is, right now the Chinese can blow us up without firing a shot, just trigger a run again treasuries and it is over. They take a hit too, but they can survive.
How can i find job opps in China? It seems very cool and exciting and I want to experience it. I am fluent in Mandarin Chinese
buyicide Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > This China-will-rule-the-world crap in 5 yrs stuff > is ridiculous. Evveryone said the same thing > about Japan in the 80s and early 90s. Then they > went into the tank for 10 yrs. Why doesn’t anyone > consider the possibility of a lull? Or at least > declining growth.? Their main resource is cheap > labor. Well, you have to consider the population growth, GDP is basically= population x productivity Japan productivity is already at a mountainous level I can’t think of other meaningful source of future growth if the population is declining China? Population growth, not a problem? Productivity growth? With tons of investment flows to the country and their internal resources, it will not be a problem. and if you do the above GDP math, china is something big