CMG

They have a good brand, management, high roic, strong market share in Mexican FF and possibly stealing share from all fast food (MCD) and other casual dining operators (PNRA). I think its pretty good food and most of my cousins/friends/family would agree.

My guess for the valuation is that the bulls think this is the next MCD in which case it could be a $40B market cap in maybe 10 years. It really depends on competition, I think Qdoba is a strong competitor and I’m not even sure how big they are. This seems like a bad stock to short because it could be slowly gaining new customers from different markets (burger fast food), and various demographics (curious older people, growing latino population)…

Back to the drawing board…

I know. It’s right up there with that bus driver that keeps running over CEOs and PMs. Stay in your lane, brah.

I love ideosyncratic risk! Life would be boring without him.

Jorn makes a good point. as my stomach’s reaction to burgers and pizza have begun to limit my consumption of these items, mexican is the best substitute. still cheap and more flavour than fast food alternatives. though we do not have a CMG in town, my taco/burrito consumption has skyrocketed as CMG substitutes pop up. if CMG were to come to town, they could probably beat most others on price and quality, sopping up all the taco/burrito demand quite quickly. taco quality in Canada is quite poor and i’m assuming its even worse in Europe and Asia where the Mexican/SA population is next to nil. in the same way that MCD brought American burgers and fries to the world, CMG will likely be the torchbearer for burritos/tacos.

i think CMG will do even better outside of the US due to few competitors. i can’t say the same for Texas or Cali where taco saturation is highest in the western world.

You can never win a growth story argument with the bulls, don’t even bother trying.

Instead as someone suggested, focus on finding the inflection point.

Just a side note, spending 5 minute looking at the 10-K and cash flow statement I can tell you real earnings is less than half of reported earnings. The higher the stock price the less sustainable the real earnings.

Bulls focus on what the number is, bears focus on what the number means.

They’re going to introduce breakfast in the near future too. They have a ways to go before they level out/pop.

There are few foods I enjoy more than a good breakfast burrito or taco.

Shorting based only on valuation doesn’t seem like a sound practice to me. Why not find some company that is overvalued and also a fraud? Seems like you would want to find multiple reasons why the stock price would fall.

You make it seem so easy - just find an overvalued company that practices fraud. If you would kindly point out a few companies i would be very grateful.

Yeah, I did make it sound much easier than it actually is. My real point was that I think shorting based solely on valuation is a risky move, and I think you would want to have several reasons why a stock would go down before taking a short position. Fraud was an example. Other examples might be aggressive accounting vs. indstury peers or an incompetent management team.

As others have said, valuations are tough to time with growth stocks. But if you think you know when CMG is going to plummet, more power to you! Happy trading everyone.

I can’t believe I actually found this thread again, meaning the AF search actually worked. H*&^ must be about to freeze over. Anyway…I just watched a 20 min video, Inside Chipotle by Bloomberg. It’s streaming on Netflix if any of you are curious, but I thought it’s a pretty interesting summary of how the company started, McD’s investment and subsequent sale, marketing strategy, etc. Seeing the first post of this thread, CMG was pretty much in the same place at the start of this week (before the market slide) as it was when the OP came in here.

The OP would have made what, 30$/share if he had shorted it on the day he made this thread.

That would have been a balsy move, though, looking at that stock.

Retarded valuations, but as everybody said, dangerous to go against momentum without any catalyst for reversal in sight…

Wasn’t there a classic thread where Blake went nuts about some ingredient changes in CMG’s salsa.

Bump it.

To the CMG shorts out there: Hide your kids, hide your wife…

CMG up 11.5% to $550/share after hours on 4Q13 print

http://ir.chipotle.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=194775&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1895464&highlight=

yea buddy

anyone else picking up cheap shares in a month or so?

Are the current issues with Chipotle common for restaurants? Seems odd there are so many occurances of illness after eating their food.

Not sure how this will affect their brand but it has definitely made me think twice before eating there.

norovirus is crazy common. every time someone throws up as a result of illness, it has a 90% chance of being norovirus. e-coli, not so much. to get e-coli they’re basically serving you food that grew in poo or they’re not cooking or handling raw meats properly.