I see your point, but shifting positions into cash now will turn your paper losses into realized ones and in the event of an upturn, it will already be too late to reposition (plus how would you know whether it is a true turning point or not). I know the fundamentals are dismal and that making sure my investments keep up with an appropriate discount rate is key, but I believe that given my age (24), this is a good oppurtunity to load up on investments at highly depressed levels. Sure the markets can take another 10-15% dump, but the absolute value of my savings is so low currently that it really doesn’t impact me as much as, say, someone within 10 yrs of retiring. There was a slide shown by Fildelity which displayed the cumulative return of $1 from the 1970s to 2006 was like $9 using a buy and hold strat. Within that time frame, if you missed the 15 months w/ the largest gains, you would have ended up with less than $4. I’m not saying that everyone should load up right now, but given my own individual circumstances, I think I can ramp up on my risky assets. Needless to say, I’m still scared that this can blow up in my face. PtrainerNY Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Are you sure you are in the right program? If I > pay 3000 today and get 3500 in 30 year, sure it’s > up. But their is a time value of money… It’s also > important to look at the fundamentals. > > It’s up to you what you do. But do it based on the > fundamental and time value. > > Doubling down without considering all cases can be > very good or very bad. > > > ymmt Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > Over a > > horizon is 40 yrs, I’m sure it’ll be worth more > > than it will today…
Ptrainer, can you ask them how they feel about today?
That is when you know when we reached local minimum, although long term prospects are still weak.