first off …LMAO… “their dominant exports are oil and miss world pageants”. Ha!
However, I am confused by your statment about Venezuela having good relations with OPEC, implying that they have some pull with the direction of strategy. If they are the weak link in the equation, why should an effective strategy be knocked off course for them. What’s in it for OPEC to do that?
@BS… I’m with you. The only reason I would think OPEC’s game of chicken would be interupted is the natives getting restless. Those in power in the Middle East are tolerated based on the benefits of a rich state. I’m not under the impression that situation is imminent just yet.
OPEC are as emotional in taking economical decision as the US is in going to wars. Relation between most members is strategic. Venezuela has the highest world reserve if you count sand oil. Their oil is heavy, so it sells at a discount. They’re heavily hurt. Saudi Arabia is not as rich as people think. The extravagance looks of many Saudi travelers is a nouveau riche behavior. A Saudi millionaire acts like a US billionaire. They are running a deficit, gradually ending subsidies, increasing debt and tapping into their financial reserves.
Maybe a second half of the year will be a good timing for a rebound. Prices might go much higher because of: higher consumption during winter, more producers will be out of business, wells drilling below replacement level, and am planning to buy another 12 Cylinder gas guzzler.
^ The Saudis essentially keep a population of hard-line Islamic radicals in check through state welfare. It’s like a population of ISIL sympathisers (or worse), placated by health care and the occasional beheading of an infidel. The royals know their own existence relies on these handouts. They can’t keep going on at these levels forever. Their very existence is at risk if benefits need to be further trimmed.
^ There are some merits, but still there are a lot of Fox News’ and Bill Maher’s material in your post.
The problem of Western views on Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Somalia, Algeria, Iran, and Afghanistan is the mix-up between tribal traditions and Islam. The West don’t know the difference (it needs a bit of reading and 5 brain cells to know the difference). Being tough on women, children, and subordinates (Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Afghanstan and few regions in Pakistan) is not part of Islam. 10 women became Presidents or Prime Ministers in 6 different Muslim countries. That’s 10 more than the US.
Female mutilation is an African tradition, is not Islamic and is not practiced by most Muslims outside Africa. In Africa, all do it, Christians, Muslims, Falasha Jews, and others. On the other hand, ALL Muslim males are subject to mutilation (circumcision); but this is cool because the Jews do it to. So cute.
There is nothing called Honor Killing in Islam. Who commit Honor Killing, will be subject to persecution under Islam. Honor Killing is committed in a number of countries (Pakistan, Jordan, India, Iraq,…) by people of different religions (Muslims, Christians, Hindu, …). But this fact wouldn’t make good TV for pundits.
Saudi Arabia suffers the highest number of ISIS attacks outside Syria and Iraq. Saudi Arabia and the UAE supported the moderate Syrian opposition against ISIS before the West being able to comprehend the situation. Both countries along with Jordan started Air Strikes on ISIS before the US. Still, idiots like Bill Maher present what they want to believe.
All of the Islamist terrorist groups came either from the wombs of Iran or the Muslim Brotherhood. The West supported the Muslim Brotherhood without knowing. This organization established many foundations in Europe and the US with appealing mandates (promoting democracy in the ME, Human Rights, education, charities). The UK is finally taking serious measures against them. It seems that the top tier US political experts think the Muslim Brotherhood is a Hummus and Falafel food chain.
Jihad is fighting under the Army of the citizen’s country. The first time in Islam’s history that Jihad was promoted as fighting for a cause under another country or organization was during the 1979-1989 Afghan War against USSR. The Jihadis were supported by the CIA (and Rambo) and were fighting a proxy war on behalf of the USA. Then the new concept of Jihad (mercenary style) was established. Thanks US politicians.
Please google images for “Afghanistan in the 60s”& “Afghanistan in the 70s”and see how it looked like before US intervention. While at it, why not google Iraq in the 70s and 80s.
Oil is worth following
^^Thanks for taking the time to add your perspective. I, for one, appreciate it. …also, some OPEC members meeting with Russia today. This should be interesting. I’ll be watching /CL like I’m binge watching G.O.T. 
^
Yup, Russia and KSA. Interesting. But speculators are taking things out of proportion. Still, I expect real valuable information.
When a Bear and a Camel mate, they give a birth to a Bull (saw this in Discovery Chanel or Nickelodeon, cant remember).
russia and SA to keep freeze production, Iran still going strong no cuts there
Meh, I spent a fair amount of time in Egypt, Kuwait and SA. Even dated a Kuwaiti I met in Egypt for about a year and studied Islam in college. Having done that, I’m more inclined to side with the Geo’s of the world. Islamic countries are progressively backwards. Yes, you are right, each country’s brand of Islam carries its own ignorance and prejudice, but that’s about as far as that goes.
It doesn’t take a genius to look at the history, human rights record and violence of the region and recognize an obvious disparity between the rest of the developed world. If you really do live in the UAE and really do buy all of that then we’re just not going to find middle ground.
Still a 1M barrel per day surplus. Yawn.
Yep. Dude’s got a penchant for drinking the koolaid I’ve noticed.
Still treating is 2/1 bull statement from our UAE representitive (agency issue?) at $31.62 as a buy call even if he rationalizes that as well.
What were you doing in KSA?
I took several trips around the same time partly because she was Sunni, we were having serious talks where the marriage word was mentioned (they jump the gun pretty quick over there) and I would have had to convert. I didn’t really have a lot else going on in my life at the time and love traveling so it all made a lot more sense then. The overarching reason was because I was and am legitimately interested in the culture and region (it’s a very harsh beauty and odd as well) but the other reasons definitely motivated me to travel there more.
More specifically, how did you get in? General tourism is not allowed. Pilgrimage? Who was your sponsor?
It wasn’t a pilgrimmage. We did a structured tour that her family helped setup. Connections or “wasta” if I remember (I had to cheat and google it) are a big deal over there.
How did you feel relinquishing your passport? Didn’t give me warm fuzzys.
I think I was more naive about the region back then. I also had this impression that the Saudis were more aligned with us out of goodwill. Today I’m a lot more cynical about the country and the situation. On the one hand I respect that the ME harbors most of the last remaining cultures that have been sheltered from western influence but I’m not excited about what all may be harbored there and the attitude that’s developed.
So how’d you wind up there?
Worked in the oil business. Six months there. The highlight was checking my bank account every month. Paid monthly.
I bet, I would always run into O&G expats around the world and they always seemed to be killing it.