Bernanke Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- But, why would they’ll close suez, or do > any other stupid stuff, from what all I’ve read, > they aren’t taliban, it’s just the power struggle. The Suez is now “unofficially” closed. It comes down to the shipping companies. The ports are now closed, and with Maersk saying they’ve halted shipping through the Suez it’s effectively closed. I don’t believe anyone is too worried about acts of terrorism. But, multinational companies are pulling their employees out of the region on safety concerns. That does tend to hurt regional business.
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Well, there are lots of uncertainties here. > > 1) Will the regime change at all? (answer, the > regime will change, though it is not 100% > guaranteed that Mubarak will be pushed from power. > It is 90% probable that he’s ousted, I’d say, but > not guaranteed; if he does stay, that would > certainly be with reduced powers, and the reason > that he might still stay is if the opposition > cannot come to an agreement on who/how to govern, > and therefore he might stay on with reduced powers > to provide some semblance of continuity whilst > there is some transition to another governing > system and/or coalition.). > > 2) Assuming Mubarak is out, will the resulting > regime be religious or secular? If religious, > what will be the relationship between the Muslim > Brotherhood and Al Qaeda. My sense is that the MB > and AQ are organizational rivals; MB being more > nationalist in orientation. > > 3) Will the resulting regime be anti-Israel, thus > increasing the chance of conventional and nuclear > war in the entire region. > > 4) Will the resulting regime be anti-Western > and/or anti-American, in which case control of > Suez will be a major issue. > > 5) Will the resulting regime be able to govern at > all? So far, the protesters are united against > Mubarak, but not necessarily united for anything. > > 6) Will there be reprisals against the very > wealthy, stimulating capital flight and possibly > civil war? > > 7) If there is civil war and/or inability to > govern, does this provide Al Qaeda a > geographically juicy failed-state zone in which to > operate? > > 8) Will a successful revolution prompt > revolutions in other Arab states, in particular > Saudi Arabia? This is more likely if the regime > that emerges is religious in nature. Egypt has > generally been the intellectual center of the Arab > world, certainly over the last 100 years. > > 9) Will these events drag NATO and/or the UN into > peacekeeping operations, essentially adding > another war to western budgets, as well as further > straining Arab-Western relations. > > 10) To what extent does this strengthen the hand > of Iran. Iran is not Arab, and so is a bit of an > outsider to the Arab world; on the other hand, > Iran might support specific factions in Egypt to > a) keep the US and the West occupied with Egypt > and not Iran, and b) build a community of more > theocratic regimes. > > Given that all of these things touch on the > hotbutton issues of oil accessibility as well as > military conflict, markets almost certainly have > to discount prices to reflect uncertainties. > Gold, oil, Treasurys and alternative energy > companies seem to be logical bets here. Excellent analysis for a research paper but not for the real world. 1 - Even if Mubarak is gone, the military controls every aspect of life in Egypt. That’s starting with the coach of the national soccer team, to the smallest city mayor. So even if he’s gone, there is not much change expected on the ground. 2 - The Egyptian constitution makes everything dependent on the President. He holds all powers and can legally do anything he wants. ( dissolve Parliament, fire/hire PM, Issue laws,… ). 3 - Opposition is divided, but they all agree on one thing, Egyptian people want to have a say in who governs them. They might have to settle for free elections on the Parliament level, but as far as the Presidency is concerned, it would be unrealistic to expect anyone from outside the military to govern. 4 - Muslim extremists are not trusted by most Egyptians. Since the foundation of the Muslim Brotherhood in the early 1900’s they have played a game of cat and mouse with the military but they have never crossed the red lines set by the regime. They were not a factor in starting the current uprising and continue to focus on their interests and what’s best for their movement. 5 - There is no way the Suez Canal will be affected by any of this. The Army is in control of the entire Eastern front and this area can be technically considered outside of Egypt. 6 - Going from here to war with Israel is a wild stretch. Egypt of Mubarak is not Egypt of Nasser, this is a broken country that has been left behind by 30 years of police rule. Israel will use these events to make the point that “real” peace is not possible in the Middle-East which is mostly true. Like the Alpha guy said, at the end of the day the impact on the US economy will probably be minimal, so no need for you to worry too much about it long term.
I will keep my analysis to myself, then.
mo34 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 5 - There is no way the Suez Canal will be > affected by any of this. The Army is in control of > the entire Eastern front and this area can be > technically considered outside of Egypt. This is just wrong, and probably the only thing that matters in the very near term. The rest of your post could be spot on, who knows, but this point alone will lose you money.
mo34 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 5 - There is no way the Suez Canal will be > affected by any of this. The Army is in control of > the entire Eastern front and this area can be > technically considered outside of Egypt. http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFLDE70S0LX20110129 this article and most that i’ve seen mention deaths in Suez, which is at the head of the Suez Canal. the closing of the Suez Port/Canal will come whenever port workers say enough. is the military going to operate all ports and utilities servicing the canal? while protecting it? that said, as some articles have mentioned, NA and Europe are no longer the growth capitals of the world and although plenty of global trade goes through the canal, the REAL seaborne growth is derived from relationships between AUS, CHN, IND, BRZ and US. Europe’s need for the canal is not what it was in the 60s and 70s. with dayrates at rock bottom, taking the longer route with a larger ship shouldn’t have much of an incremental cost. this is assuming oil doesn’t hit 150 any time soon…
MattLikesAnalysis Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > mo34 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > 5 - There is no way the Suez Canal will be > > affected by any of this. The Army is in control > of > > the entire Eastern front and this area can be > > technically considered outside of Egypt. > > > http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFLDE70S > 0LX20110129 > > this article and most that i’ve seen mention > deaths in Suez, which is at the head of the Suez > Canal. the closing of the Suez Port/Canal will > come whenever port workers say enough. is the > military going to operate all ports and utilities > servicing the canal? while protecting it? > > Those working in the Suez Canal Authority have royalty like status in Egypt. These guys are not protesting and will never join any protests, they and there families are living at very high standards compared to the rest of the Egyptian population. Think of it as the Egyptian version of ARAMCO and you get the idea. People who are protesting in Suez are the poorest of the poor. These guys were displaced from 1956 till 1974 when they were allowed to return home and have absolutely nothing going for them.
bchadwick is right on…good and clear analysis. I also agree with mo34 on some of what he said. The Suez canal is not interrupted as of now, and it will not be because Egyptians know it’s a major asset, pumping some $4-5 billion annually. They are not dumb to shut it down. Knowing the region myself, bchadwick’s read on the Muslim Bros is accurate…they are completely magrinalized and there is no talk of even inviting them to join any kind of government or parliament. They are bankrupt. True that the military controls every aspect of life in Egypt, and everyone “respects” the military. If anything the military might just take over and remove Mubarak, but there is no chance of some Muslim or nationalist government taking over. Eygpt is beyond that…all opposition groups pretty much agree on that. mo34’s comment that “The Egyptian constitution makes everything dependent on the President.” is true, but the main purpose of the uprising is to change the constitution.
There is another reason why shutting Suaz will be suicidal and stupid for any regime that follows Mubarak. Fact is that shutting Suaz will drive oil prices higher, which will stoke the same high inflation that is causing these protests in the first place.