Greek Default

But I am afraid that could lead to a series of unpleasant surprises, given how hairy Greek men are.

greek women are hot, no doubt about it

i think folks are confusing improvement with progress. things have certainly not improved in Greece, especially for the Greek people and their living standards. that said, things have progressed as they have needed to and as they were destined to, no matter what path got them there.

i agree that Greeks’ seemingly inherent laziness is likely less genetic and more situational and at worst learned. i bet many greeks would opt for productive work over unproductive work if it was offered. i’m sure we would view most germans as being lazy if their only two industries were shipping (i.e. driving boats around) and island tourism (i.e. driving boats around). growing up in a place with no productive work often leads to laziness by training. very high levels of unemployment doesn’t help either. the germans helped with this training by creating the EU and limiting the chance of Greece ever developing an industry that didn’t involve boat piloting.

Let’s face it. Greece is and will not be the decisive landmark for the future of Europe - independent of whether they stay in or not. (My current bet is that politicians will find a way to further kick the can down the road keeping them in the Euro).

The real thread from my point of view is France. Given the current and future economic indicators, the weak government and hopelessly divided conservative opposition, the strong and radical unions and in particular the right wing radical party (Front Nacional) one of the two european horses is in danger to fail.

This is what bothers me personally much more that Greece.

Isn’t it a little simplistic to try to blame Greece’s problems on laziness, particularly when some data, such as OECD hours worked per worker, indicates otherwise? Their total factor productivity has also always been in the area of 80-90% of US level, which is not a bad measure by EU standards at all.

I have been to Greece many times, and I understand a lot of anecdotal evidence can be produced (although, in fairness, so can for Italy or France, particularly for the less industrialised areas) but it bothers me that this line of thinking, apparently inspired by quick moral judgement and ad hoc observations actually appears to translate to macroeconomic policy.

Faulty institutions in Greece are another thing, but those lessons apply to many other EU members.

WHAT?!?

Yeah, I don’t know what a “decisive landmark” is, but I agree. yes

If Greece suddenly doesn’t have to pay back a big chunk of money and gets to keep their fat joyful lifestyle, what message is that going to send to the other EU nations that are in trouble?

Moral Hazard.

It’s one of the most foolish arguments one can make.

What happens with Greece is pretty important. If the Germans relax their stance other nations like Spain etc will demand the same treatment. That leaves the Germans with less options that they would’ve liked and if Varoufakis really swore by Game Theory he woud’ve known this all along.

If Greece leaves and manages to re-build something within 5 years time the peripheral nations like Ireland will follow their lead and leave the Euro. The Greece military infrastructure is still robust and not severly affected by austerity from what I understand so descent into anarchy in unlikely as is Martial law given the Generals have been kept in line so far.

Military on the streets is the last thing anybody (incl. european politicians) want to see.

Presumably this argument has guided German thinking in not stepping away from the austerity path despite lack of visible economic improvement in Greece. However, the original sin may lie in the fact that Greece was not allowed to default on its original creditors, ie French and German commercial banks, and was instead roped into the excercise of fiscal consolidation at the behest of the troika, with the exclusion from the euro zone as the only possible alternative.

The Euro zone clearly has no framework for dealing with a crisis of this magnitude. A workable exit path from the Euro may be one step in the right direction. Another would be to develop policies to allow orderly sovereign default within the Eurozone. Otherwise the lack of appropriate tools will cripple the resolution of similar, or much worse (Italy?) crises in the future.

i believe you misread my statement. we’re clearly in agreement.

I’m going to laugh hard when the Americans have to slave their life away to pay back the Chinese.

“We need to do what is right, we borrowed that money dammit, we need to make sacrifices to pay back those Chinese investors!”.

The difference ist that the US can print their money. A default of the current outstanding US debt is technically speaking impossible. The other question is what the Greenback will be worth at the time of repayment.

In other words no actual plan to work and repay the money. Just schemes.

Hmmm, no difference.

^Exactly.

We’ll see how “exact” it is with the passing of time.

+1.5

the fact that people think governments need to “repay” their debt is completely misguided.

that debt was issued to build things the country needs and that the country could charge for if it needed to. most countries’, including the U.S.'s, net worth position is actually slightly positive, meaning asset values cover debt values and then some. do you really propose the U.S. sells all of its government owned assets to pay the government issued debt off, and effectively lose control of assets that are used to promote the public good (e.g. health, education, essential infrastructure, etc)? anyone who calls for the repayment of government debt in a well-run economy clearly doesn’t understand why the debt was issued in the first place.

the problem with greece versus most Western countries is that their net worth position is wildly negative and they are also likely to have a hard time maintaining an operating surplus, meaning this negative net worth position will worsen over time. if greece sold all of its assets it would still need to increase taxation beyond reason to pay the remaining debt. this is why they need a debt reduction AND need to acheive an operating surplus to be sustainable. both sides, greece and germany, are right in their position and both need to get their way, at least partially, in order to put greece on the right path.

I like to put uncomfortable things right up in people’s face , and watch them squirm (rationalize). surprise

Okay, back to taunting the dumb Greeks kids…

100% of the US outstanding debt is denominated in US-Dollars. Repayment will always be possible with a keystroke.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntharvey/2012/09/10/impossible-to-default/

“The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.” Alan Greenspan

“In the case of United States, default is absolutely impossible. All U.S. government debt is denominated in U.S. dollar assets.” Peter Zeihan, Vice President of Analysis for STRATFOR

“In the case of governments boasting monetary sovereignty and debt denominated in its own currency, like the United States (but also Japan and the UK), it is technically impossible to fall into debt default.” Erwan Mahe, European asset allocation and options strategies adviser

“There is never a risk of default for a sovereign nation that issues its own free-floating currency and where its debts are denominated in that currency.” Mike Norman, Chief Economist for John Thomas Financial

“There is no inherent limit on federal expenses and therefore on federal spending…When the U.S. government decides to spend fiat money, it adds to its banking reserve system and when it taxes or borrows (issues Treasury securities) it drains reserves from its banking system. These reserve operations are done solely to maintain the target Federal Funds rate.” Monty Agarwal , managing partner and chief investment officer of MA Managed Futures Fund

“As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

“A sovereign government can always make payments as they come due by crediting bank accounts — something recognized by Chairman Ben Bernanke when he said the Fed spends by marking up the size of the reserve accounts of banks.” L. Randall Wray, Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and a Senior Scholar at the Levy Economics Institute