Forecast #1 – you will be wrong. Forecast #2 – you will not learn from your mistake. 
I don’t do “arguments”, I observe and point things out.
That’s what I said, Americans will weasel out and not pay the money back. Just like Greeks. You guys have ADHD?
Or perhaps it doesn’t go the way you think it will. 
Think about it kids, dad needs to go to bed now.
Dude, what I stated is correct, it’s legally impossible for a creditor to demand repayment outside of maturity. That would be a put and treasuries don’t have them. Sorry you’re an idiot.
I stated the situation would obviously be handle through repayment with printed currency, an option the Greeks do not have. You’re clearly out of your depth on this one.
The only bubble you need to be worried about is that one in China I called in May.
That’s incorrect. It’s called a demand clause and exists in many forms of lending. It is not often used, for several reasons which probably aren’t important to this convo. But it does exist
Yeah you do need some sleep. You’re not thinking clearly and ran out of valid points to make a long time ago. Your last 6 or so posts have just been vague ramblings without any basis in factual reality.
But not in US treasuries genious. Which are what we’re talking about. Good contribution, thanks for playing. LMAO 
*genius
Way to realize your irrelevant point and add this after the fact. Good thing my first quote caught the original post. It’s like FIN101 up in here.
*edit: I just realized I’m talking to an L1 candidate. Even better.
Of course, anything can happen purealpha… How about this, what is the probability of the US defaulting on its debt? I’d say it’s pretty, pretty, prettyyyyy low.
You think too highly of yourself. I added that before I even saw either of your responses. But I’ll let you get back to being yourself. . .
No, you’re wrong, the Oompa Loompa’s will rise up and enslave the planet. You cannot prove it’s an impossibility, ergo it must be true.
yes. thanks for proving my point. only morons who read USA Today and think zerohedge is the most futurist financial website actually treat the USG NPV as fact. smart people (i.e. people swing the biggest bats in the bond market) are not panicking about the negative $100 trillion in USG NPV because it assumes that absolutely nothing changes. are you really that much of a lemming to think that U.S. lawmakers will actually just walk off the cliff intentionally for several decades until the point of complete bankruptcy? considering the U.S. government is one of the most right wing on the planet, i’m sure they won’t have too hard a time cutting when cutting is needed.
you’re assuming that the worst case scenario is actually the base case. not surprising from a guy who thinks there is value in the Chinese stock market when it is clearly by almost every metric that it is the most expensive and overlevered market in history.
Lots of arguments here and I haven’t gotten through them all.
Just a point on sovereign default. If debt is denominated in ones own currency, then (assuming the government has control over the central bank, which is not always the case), it is impossible to be forced to default, since one can always run the presses.
However, it is still possible for these countries to choose to default, if printing money would cause other intolerable difficulties like hyperinflation, or the reduction in the purchasing power of elite policymakers, or just because one party wants to cause problems and blame it on the other party. So while having ones debt denominated in ones own currency is generally (a lot) safer, it isn’t a guarantee that there won’t be a default.
Finally, if a country does pay back debts denominated in their own (now-devalued) currency, lenders will likely start demanding that any new or rolled-over debt be denominated in another currency, commodity or specie. Paying back debt in devalued local currency is something one can do once or maybe twice in an emergency, but it is not a long-term sustainable strategy.
Now back to reading the other arguments, which seem to revolve around whether purealpha is probably always right because his thinking is tautological or whether his thinking is probably tautological because he is always right.
This is wrong, there is no moral hazard. If Greece defaulted, there would be repercussions via higher interest rates. When people lend money, they’re accepting default risk, now it’s time to own up.
tsk tsk, be careful about implying that passing or not passing L1, L2 or L3 makes you a better investor or analyst. That’s an ethics violation. 
(Just teasing you here, BS).
Maybe you haven’t been following so closely. Anyway, the “moral hazard” is related to bailouts, not market rate loans, on which Greece has not had to rely on since 2012 or earlier. The market interest rate on Greek loans would probably have been some astronomical 30% or higher. However, Greece receives financial assistance from the EU (in plurality funded by ze Germans), as well as the IMF, in the form of loans with long maturities and very low interest rates. The same applies to Portugal, Spain, or other very indebted EU nations. The ECB has distorted the supply of funds such that “market rates” are inapplicable in many cases.
There is a moral hazard because EU nations that are in poor fiscal health have come to expect bailouts from the EU; the consequences of their fiscal irresponsibility have been lessened. Furthermore, the recent actions by the Syriza party defy the agreements on austerity that were negotiated by the preceding “technocrat” government. Not only is there a fear of EU countries expecting to be bailed out, but there is a danger that they will not adhere to the conditions that accompany these bailouts.
This isnt directed at anyone in particular but we always forget the majority of US debt is held by US Citizens, local US governments and US banking institutions. A US default will largely be to itself and solved through a massive bail-in, probably go down as the biggest ponzi scheme in human history but time will tell as this will all play out.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FDHBFIN
Hopefully i’m dead before this situation arises.
I thought my risk premium that I was spreading didn’t include any risk?? Now you’re telling me that 6% Greek bonds vs 50 bps bunds are like CDS in 2008??
You are wrong. see Ohai’s response which summed it up.