How do you develop an opinion on the market?

I know this may sound like a funny question, but it’s something I’ve wondered about. I see all these great posts about market news, but when I see it, I don’t seem to extrapolate much beyond what the news actually is. This is critical in interviews and obviously investing and I’m curious how you develop that knack for seeing events from an investor’s perspective? I have a genuine interest in finance and the markets, and I like reading other people’s opinions, but how do I develop my own? Maybe this is something no one can answer for me, but I just wanted to throw it out there.

great question. very few people do it well. In my world outside of analyst forum, I try to see the side consensus is not. One of my biggest calls this past year was telling people to get out of CROX when it was in the 60s and 70s. It was actually last summer…point is not the stock, but simply that I stood up and told people twice my age and many more times wealthier than me that they should granularize the sales growth and flip the stock when sales decelerated – repeat, decelerated, not declined. it was a non moat company, as Buffett might say, and I was benching CROX against HLYS, which got toasted last summer early on. The same day HLYS blew up, I developed the idea that CROX had a few quarters to live… The St was in love with the crox story and mgmt was BSing the buy side for months. CROX finally went from the 70s to 4…just develop your own ideas and f*** what is on CNBC and all the sites, altho i will admit that on an average day, with 2 TVs and 2 monitors in front of me, I am flooded by it all and myself find it very hard to see what lies under every rock.