Getting close to my target of $525. Not sure I’m ready to dip in though. May wait to see if we test $500.
Now if GOOG would get down to $615 I wouldn’t have any problem picking some up.
Does your price target change when SPX is 1350 compared to 1430?
Not directly. I’ve been hanging out in cash for about a month anticipating a general market decline heading into the Cliff. I’m waiting to buy a handful of names, AAPL just happens to be one of the first stocks to reach my target price.
As I was saying above, from a valuation standpoint I’m fine buying Apple here. But I’m wary of the negative momentum affecting the stock in the short-term. If/when it breaks below $525 (probably today), I’ll probably wait until we get a couple-few days of positive moves with decent volume before buying. I don’t need to buy at the exact bottom, and there’s a decent chance this continues to dive. No reason to buy here when I may be able to pick it up at $450 in a month.
I hope google sinks…but then again, i got quite a bit of ideas lately…bought FFH today…just a small nugget of a piece…
Apple just went below $525. Hope you were watching…
Patience…
This has a “catching a falling knife” feeling to it at the moment.
I feel like the problem with Apple right now is that its losing unexpected catalysts and the excitments that have become the essential elements to hold up Apple’s stock price. It is also suffering from the burst of over expectation bubble and now the increasingly dull/conservative product line. It needs to be like Google, who revealed some of its undergoing projects that draw attentions and excitments such as Google glass and driverless car. People just don’t expect Apple to bring something totally unexpected after Job’s passing. I think its lowest point will be few weeks after the Q1 result (which obviously will be good but not enough growth value).
Anyways, Apple needs to do something crazy soon to prove it can still innovate. Its time to make acqusitions and burn that 124 billion cash pile.
Let’s tell it like it is. Kids don’t find Apple cool anymore and these kids are the future customers.
Apple is a difficult business to analyze. I would wait for at least a year personally before I think about opening a position. The question marks are well known:
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How will Apple develop new products now that Steve is gone? Cook is not a product guy, Schiller has his pulse on the market, but is not a product guy either. Ive is a designer, but no background in tech. Eddy Cue’s role is in primarily running online services, and it’s not obvious to us what Mansfield’s doing. Apple has a great management team, but they are essentially specialists, and somehow will need to think as one seamless team. It’s not impossible, but I would wait for them to prove their method works.
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How will Apple handle losing market share to Android? Will it slash prices or will it be happy staying a niche player?
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How will Apple react to changes in the industry like thin clients and virtualization? This is primarily a worry for MSFT, but could prove disruptive for Apple as well.
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Is Apple going to have a Web presence?
This is a fascinating company to follow, but I personally would study the above issues before forming an opinion.
Dead cat turkey bounce? Maybe I just got greedy and missed my entry point. More likely we’ll see some very low volume up days this week. Market will resume selling off after the holiday.
I think… holiday iPad sales are going to matter a lot. Is everyone going to go out and buy iPad mini for Christmas? Analysts will use that as an indication of whether Apple still has “got it” for the next couple of years.
Any ideas on what’s behind the ~5% fall today?
I think bromion would say momentum investors are selling to income/value investors… 
I think we’ll see it trend down until the end of the year. Wealthy people are selling to lock in gains under a known tax regime. Wealthy people invest in hedge funds. The number one hedge fund holding is Apple.
Also, I think we’re seeing a version of the dead cat bounce. I don’t think Apple is a dead cat, but the concerns people had with it a few weeeks ago that drove the price down to $500 haven’t gone away. But, they caught a bid at a psychological barrier ($500) and squeezed the shorts back up to $590.
The shorts are coming back and combined with the natural profit taking by the wealthy, we’ll see this drift lower. The bounce should have shook out some of the weak hands, so if we can build a base around $515 (or lower) I’ll buy.
On a side note, I know a lot of people buying iPad minis for xmas. Pretty much all my friends are getting one so they can take back their iPad from their kids. Could be a good quarter for Apple.
I want to repurchase it, I last sold it in the spring, I am just waiting for a good entry point.
Two things, apparently:
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Dealers demanding higher margins, as many clients have “concentrated” positions in AAPL. This means that AAPL movement has higher impact to default risk than some other random stock. So people want you to post more money if you have positions in AAPL.
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iPhone lost some China contract to Nokia. Would have been a lot of sales if they won.
Maybe some other stuff also, but this is what I heard.
I’m mostly invested right now, but if I were sitting on more cash I would buy more AAPL shares at these levels without equivocation.
There was a liquidating fund that sold AAPL on the 5% down day. It’s also retail and momentum guys bailing out, no doubt combined with year-end tax loss selling for some hedge funds. The stock will probably bounce off $500 but I don’t think it will have a strong rally to close the year.
If that liquidating fund moved AAPL price, it must have been a pretty big fund! 37 million shares of AAPL traded on 12/5. So that’s about $20 billion in total volume.
I’m sure it wasn’t just that fund, but the fund was in the news, so perhaps short selling day traders were part of the action that day. Not everyone is rational enough to focus on company fundamentals and boring stuff like that.