APM Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Virgin, you are looking at the worst financial > crisis since 1929 Oct 24, and you think we already > reached a bottom? We are far away from the bottom > and the spill over effect from fears will drag > market down further. > > I am not going to guessing the bottom myself, > after all how many ppl can buy at the bottom? > Just let market comes out on its own. True - but even if we are not at the bottom, it definitely has to come soon, even if we have some sideways volatility and a few more slight drops before heading up. “Although it is the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, it is a far smaller crisis, especially in terms of the effects on output and employment. The United States had about 25% unemployment during most of the decade from 1931 until 1941, and sharp falls in GDP. Other countries experienced economic difficulties of a similar magnitude. So far, American GDP has not yet fallen, and unemployment has reached only a little over 6%. Both figures are likely to get quite a bit worse, but they will nowhere approach those of the 1930s.” - Mr. Becker, the 1992 Nobel economics laureate, is professor of economics at the University of Chicago good article http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122333679431409639.html
The fact that many people are calling for a bottom is one reason why the odds of a bottom forming at this juncture are so low. We need more pain and fear. People in my office are far from throwing in the towel, nobody is dejected and there is still a sense of cautious optimism.
PtrainerNY Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > he SEC said Wednesday night the ban on short sales > of financial company stocks will continue to just > before midnight on Oct. 17, just about the time a > flood of bank earnings reports are set to hit, > and > > > dcallocchia0322 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > virginCFAhooker Wrote: > > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > ----- > > > 3 reasons: > > > > > > (1) The vix, whatever that is, hit an all > time > > > high and shorting is now allowed. > > > > > > (2) I’m scared. > > > > > > (3) I’m running out of cash. > > > > > > I thought the short ban expires tonight at > 11:59? > > I believe the ban will be lifted for tomorrow’s > > trading day… Wait… are you saying that the SEC extended it until Oct 17? If so, I read the contrary in Business Week. The article says the SEC had the choice but opted out, therefore it ends tonight. http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D93LTG5O0.htm
projectplatynyc - do you read the Becker-Posner blog? I like it OK but it’s way wordier and no cool charts and graphs like Marginal Revolution or Freaknomics or Mankiw has.
juventurd Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > projectplatynyc - do you read the Becker-Posner > blog? I like it OK but it’s way wordier and no > cool charts and graphs like Marginal Revolution or > Freaknomics or Mankiw has. Cool - I hadn’t seen that Becker-Posner page until now and have added it. Looks like a good perspective to follow.
Looks like the house speaker is talking about calling congress back for another bailout… That’s why market is up Another bailout = more taxes.
“When Joe Sixpack and Suzie Soccermom have an approximate understanding of what a CDS is, then we’re at the bottom.” Then we are at the bottom…my wife knows what a CDS is and I didn’t tell her…I guess I have a really smart milkman
For reasons beyond me the market may bounce tomorrow. None of the government intervention has had a positive effect on the equities market. The expiration of this ban may follow that trend. Wall Street loves a laissez-faire policy.
JonnyRev Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > “When Joe Sixpack and Suzie Soccermom have an > approximate understanding of what a CDS is, then > we’re at the bottom.” > > Then we are at the bottom…my wife knows what > a CDS is and I didn’t tell her…I guess I > have a really smart milkman We’re getting close… she needs to know how a CDS makes an MBS possible and how an MBS makes 0% down interest-only mortgages possible. Then we’re definitely at the bottom. Speaking of milkmen… it reminded me of one of my favorite Monty Python skits… (semi-safe for work, i.e. risque’, but not graphic)… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9YL0yHohts
short ban ends at midnight tonight, you can short financials starting tomorrow. however, the market maker exemption and fail delivery obligation stuff still applies at least until Oct 17th, so while shorting is possible for financials once again, the SEC still has brokers on a pretty strict NO FAIL policy.
bannisja Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > short ban ends at midnight tonight, you can short > financials starting tomorrow. however, the market > maker exemption and fail delivery obligation stuff > still applies at least until Oct 17th, so while > shorting is possible for financials once again, > the SEC still has brokers on a pretty strict NO > FAIL policy. Thanks for the clarification, do you have a reference for this info?
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-238.htm expiration. original- http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-235.htm again, the fails reqs are still there at least until the 17th, my $$ would go on this is going to become pretty permanent. it has slowed down both shorting and failing considerably. also has increased borrow costs for securities also, which is getting passed along for the most part to those shorting the names. it’s more expensive now than it used to be to short stocks.
equity_analyst Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The fact that many people are calling for a bottom > is one reason why the odds of a bottom forming at > this juncture are so low. We need more pain and > fear. People in my office are far from throwing in > the towel, nobody is dejected and there is still a > sense of cautious optimism. Totally agree with this one - there is nowhere near enough blood on the floor
Tomorrow could be pivotal - if there is not too much blood after the short ban is lifted, could be a positive note. Then again, if not . . . it could be very different . . .
banni, what are fails reqs?
Short sellers did not cause banks to be leveraged 50 times. The short ban has added much to the volatility, as short covering (i.e., buying) has been absent. The short-ban lifting should be a positive for the markets, not a drag.
looks like another murky day. Virgin, this is still far away from the bottom. I am thinking 8000 at least!
my portfolio is off the bottom by a slim slim slim slim wait no it’s not, wait yes it is. Ok now it is wait isn’t no is.