Iran deal likely outcomes

ok fair enough - but why? Assad doesnt approve of a pipeline through Syria? This battle is putting the US Turkey relationship in harms way, which has traditionally been a very strategic “partner” against the east. Displace Assad for the sake of chemical weapons useis laughable, so again why would the US target Assad instead of propping him up against ISIS?

The Supreme Leader of Iran is pushing beyond 80 in a year and the country seems to be on the brink of another major protest.

because our election cycles dictate you need to show “results” within a year or so otherwise the opposition party wipes the floor with your strategy. countries like china & russia have it much easier because they can ignore the short term ebbs & flows of popular opinion and stay dedicated to a strategy. no one said autocratic regimes had no positives

that said i agree with BS - the ME is a mess and the US certainly isnt helping (not that it has for the last 50 years) but i feel bad for the people there having to deal with the US/China/Russia using them & their land to have a d*ck measuring contest

While I find Trump’s tactics to be blunt, heavy-handed, poorly crafted, and crudely implemented (not to mention he’s a loathsome troll with major personal issues), he’s doing something that should have been done a while ago. He’s using America’s might - not military might but the full force of our economy - to cower other major international players into line.

Nothing he’s done has brought us closer to an actual war. That’s not going to happen. Anyone really think Iran wants an all-out war with the US? That’s straight suicide. You can call it a trade war, currency war, whatever…but it’s more of an overarching economic war. If China (for example) wants to continue doing business with America they need to help out on the NK deal. If countries want to continue doing business with Iran, forget about using our banks and basically face an uphill battle anytime you want something from us.

Simply put, the global economy doesn’t work without the US. Unless Europe, Russia, and China all want to band together it’s not even close to a fair fight. I really don’t like Trump. He’s human pond scum. But I’m glad we’re doing this now before China (and Europe for that matter) have enough leverage to really push back. Even a complete buffoon can win when the deck is this heavily stacked in his favor.

The last piece of the puzzle, which is probably still a few years off, is allowing free and open trade, globally. Just like a conventional war, a trade war that leads to long-term protectionism would be a horrible outcome. Based on Trump’s statements, it seems like he wouldn’t mind that. But, then again, his statements don’t mean anything. If he can negotiate something closer to actual global free trade, it’s worth going through all this crap now.

Did you not read the part about KSA hating Assad? KSA is a much more influential ally of the US in that region and Assad will never pivot from Russia/Iran’s influence so ultimately it’s just helping our primary ally in the region. In addition Israel also has an axe to grind so it helps our two largest allies and costs us little strategically. Turkey has been helpful at times but it’s just not going to be near what the others offer. I mean on a very over simplified basis if you want to examine the strategic value of each relationship compare US military sales to Israel ($9.2B) and KSA (record $110B/$350B over 10Y signed 2017) vs Turkey (peanuts) in any given year. Beyond that since the regime tightening in Turkey and the pivot to stronger ties with Russia I think it’s viewed as inevitable that Turkey winds up falling under Russia’s sway.

^i did but that’s not logical. What power do the Kurds possess? More so, why are we against Assad/Iran/Russia if ISIS is our greatest threat?

Whats more, you say i overcomplicated things with the divides within the sunni following and you keep bringing up one of those divides, the kurds.

No you’re missing the point, ISIS is not our greatest threat, never has been. Just a side show. We also aren’t supporting the Kurd’s you’re routinely missing the forest for the trees because of your personal bias over Turkey. This is about KSA, Israel, Russia and Iran. Everything else you just mentioned is silly. We aren’t supporting the Kurds because we give two craps about the Kurds, it’s precisely because they are annoying Turkey, the same reason the US only cares about ISIS as a news point for people that get excited about news points.

The threat from a policy standpoint IS Russia and Iran since the rise of Iran coincides with rising Russian influence in the region similarly a strong KSA and Israel (isolated Iran) means a strong US. Do yourself a favor and don’t start playing chess. You’ll be the only guy fighting over pawns because sacrificing them for bishops is “not logical”.

I think you have me confused - i was merely asking rhetorical questions (the turkey bias is correct tho). Why is Russia/Iran and a threat?

It’s not even purely militarily a threat as STL pointed out, this is a proxy conflict. We’re trying to control a region geopolitically and Iran represents Russia’s influence which is contrary to ours and happens to increasingly coincide with China’s. If Iranian influence extends around the Gulf then US motives increasingly will be undermined by Russia / China (and we’ll lose sway with our allies). It really is that simple.

The US does not fight wars because we are morally inclined.

Looks like he’s mad he’s not getting $150 Bills anymore.