gotta love the late minute decline to -115 today! what the heck was that?!
bhill020 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > bchadwick Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > Also take a look > > at Jeremy Granthams estimates of recent profit > > margins compared to historic averages and > recent > > leverage levels and you realize that there is a > > decent fundamental argument that the market as > a > > whole is not oversold. > > bchadwick - where can I find these estimates? I > took a look on the GMO site. Do I need to > register to see this stuff. Thanks! Not exactly sure where to find it in print. I was listening to Grantham talk about market conditions on a podcast, I believe at the CFAI Website, where he talks about how he uses historical profit margins and leverage and other fundamental factors to come up with index valuation. I can look later, but maybe that’s enough info for you now. Best, Bruce
You need to register but once you do you can pull up Grantham’s quarterly letters.
Oh we forgot to list CMBS as “more crap that could still happen”. I don’t follow this market closely anymore, I know the spreads were absurd awhile back. Maybe someone here knows more. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2pBt4Vo5uHk&refer=home In the meantime the rally rages on…
What else could happen? Insurance companies.
I’ll act as secretary of the AF risk quantification thread. Crap that could still happen: - CMBS defaults - CDS defaults - Unemployment ^ - Inflation ^ - Home prices v - USD decimation - Insurance co implosions
purealpha Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > - Inflation ^ > that can’t be worse than the threat of deflation we had a few months ago.
what if there is inflation then bernanke has to take the free-money-punch bowl away from the thieving bankers? Wow… that’d suck.
i think the 1Q window dressing theory is definitely plausible. everytime we broke major support lvls in the S&P we had about a 20% to 25% retracement rally off the lows before beginning the next leg down. the 821 lvl in S&Ps yesterday looked like a great sell. but yetserday evening i saw a couple of notes by other traders noticing the same thing… and a lot of headlines on bloomberg all saying “bear market rally”. that should have triggered an alarm bell in my head that the market is probably short already and we’re going to squeeze a higher before we finally top out. i think we need all the guys who shorted at 821 (think there are a ton) to get stopped out as we squeeze higher to maybe 845 ish (roughly around 100dma or a little above). and then we go to 700.