I think the US economy has been in recession for over 18 months now. Indicators are that July/August 2009 will mark the end of that period, although a double dip is possible as happened in 81/82. I don’t have the stats to hand, but I would have thought that makes this one of the longest recessions since the great depression.
I am a big believer in the double dip, much of the current boom is being supported by govt and the govt’s budget deficits and debt have ballooned to incredible levels. Once the govt smashes the current round of deflation (and no one has ever argued the govt could not smash deflation given it owns the printing presses), we go the other way into hyperinflation for a time and that causes the second recession. After that, we finally go into genuine recovery. One thing people seem to be missing is that there was a solution to getting us out of the housing crisis - it simply was not a pain free one (eg, it comes at the price of a round of inflation). Personally I think a a 3-5 year period of inflation could do wonders; consumers are over leveraged, govt is over leveraged, just about every financial is over leveraged. Cheapen the value of those debts then squeeze future inflation back down and you can restore a certain balance; although it will be painful and people will yowl like children. Better than a full depression though.
Carson Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I think the US economy has been in recession for > over 18 months now. Indicators are that > July/August 2009 will mark the end of that period, > although a double dip is possible as happened in > 81/82. > > I don’t have the stats to hand, but I would have > thought that makes this one of the longest > recessions since the great depression. There are a lot of differing figures about when certain countries entered the recession, but I’m just trying to keep this an apples to apples comparison. The Bank of Canada in its own literature states that the recession started last quarter 2008, and they’re saying we’re now exiting it. I’ve seen April 2008 used as the starting date as well, and I think the World Bank pegs the recession as starting even earlier than that in Canada.