The 10 year passing rates and average are: 1998 - 62% 1999 - 54% 2000 - 54% 2001 - 46% 2002 - 47% 2003 - 47% 2004 - 32% 2005 - 56% 2006 - 48% 2007 - 40% ---- Avg. 49% Std Dev. 8.5% The 5 year average would be 45%. Pray for mean reversion.
Just look at 2004 when the rate was 32%. The next year was 56%. I bet we see the same trend 2007 - 2008. We’re looking at 50% or better.
bosjcm Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Just look at 2004 when the rate was 32%. The next > year was 56%. I bet we see the same trend 2007 - > 2008. We’re looking at 50% or better. 2004 was the year they changed the L2 format from written to multiple choice, definitely an outlier, but I’d be happy with mean reversion at this point.
the only pass rate I care about is my own. why do you guys care if the other guys pass or fail?
milkpump Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > the only pass rate I care about is my own. why do > you guys care if the other guys pass or fail? i won’t lie to you. whether i pass or not obviously matters the most to me. i, like everyone else here, am a selfish animal. but i’ll tell you what. there are a group of people on this forum, and i think they know who they are, that i’ve studied and vented with for the last, what, eight months, and some that even go back to last year’s level 1, that i genuinely want to see pass. in fact, i’d be pretty pissed if they didn’t pass. even if i failed, and they made it through, i would be happy for them. i’ll probably never meet most of them, but in a weird online, geeky way, i consider them friends. so there you have it. it’s the camaraderie. it’s nothing against you, but i think you kind of joined in a week before the test. and there is nothing wrong with that. but that is why you don’t care if the other guys pass or fail.
the higher the overall pass rate the better chance I have to pass or conversely the worse i’ll feel if I don’t pass.
Believe it or not, but the passing score for 2004 was 206 and the pass rate was 32%.