bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Iceland too. Yup but they’ve got some big time social problems going on so I’m not sure how much laughing they’re doing… haha
ManMythLegend Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > bchadwick Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Iceland too. > > Yup but they’ve got some big time social problems > going on so I’m not sure how much laughing they’re > doing… haha Yes… social problems… like a massive oversupply of fantastically attractive women. I do feel for them and wish I could help.
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > equity_analyst Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > > > > When you own gold ETF’s you are still exposed > to > > fiat, > > > ??? What are you confused about? There are two issues here: 1) If you own a gold ETF fund that is priced in dollars, what do you think happens to those dollars in a USD currency collapse. Your dollar denominated ETF will track the gold price nicely, but let’s say you sell your ETF and then take out your funds, now what? Your gold ETF expsosure, is USD exposure, which is fiat exposure. 2) When you buy a typical gold ETF, GLD for example, you are trusting that the gold backing the fund is actual there and that the company hasn’t levered the paper ETF shares. Is this a valid concern? Well, what else explains the huge premium to NAV for the Sprott gold ETF’s? You’ll note that this ETF allows you to actually exchange ETF shares for physical gold, something GLD and the other funds do not allow. So, my comments about fiat applied to both these situations, but my first comment is much more important in regards to wealth protection in a currency collapse scenario. That said, I have used GLD, SLV, and the 2x levered UGL ETF as trading vehicles during this PM upcycle, while my physical gold and silver rests in the safe.
The liquidity concerns over PSLV and PHYS are really overblown too. Taking a quick glance at both of them right now, the bid-ask for each is a penny. Physical > Sprott > GLD/SLV
Sweep the Leg Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The liquidity concerns over PSLV and PHYS are > really overblown too. Taking a quick glance at > both of them right now, the bid-ask for each is a > penny. > > Physical > Sprott > GLD/SLV The risk is that during a real flight to gold crisis that the paper ETF market would simply decouple from the spot price, but again, if you are holding onto paper ETF’s in order to hedge against a currency crisis, etc., well, you simply are going to lose it all along with anyone else that has dollar denominated assets. Physical for wealth protection / Paper for trading
Believe me, you’re preaching to the choir.
Sweep the Leg Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Believe me, you’re preaching to the choir. The balls out move is to liquidate the 401k account, pay the taxes and penalty, and get out of the dollar entirely.
equity_analyst Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Sweep the Leg Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Believe me, you’re preaching to the choir. > > > The balls out move is to liquidate the 401k > account, pay the taxes and penalty, and get out of > the dollar entirely. My 401k is 85% in silver miners. All of them are Canadian companies so I’m going Loonie. That wasn’t actually part of my original plan, but it should be a nice side benefit.
I don’t really buy that you are exposed to fiat just because in order to redeem your ETF shares, you have to take USD for them. It’s true in a literal sense, but as long as things aren’t inflating 20% per day, one can hold fiat for the short time in between trades without being exposed to fiat currencies in a meaningful way. Try buying a quart of milk with your physical gold bullion and tell me how that works for you. The decoupling issue does become an issue if you are expecting a collapse of financial institutions along with the USD, or a collapse of law and order. I agree. For me, I just don’t think we’re going to go that far. I don’t have an issue with having some physical on hand in case of disaster like that, but for now it is not a major scenario for me. STL, do you have documentation or references I can look at that describes how GLD is double-lending its gold deposits? I agree that this could be a problem, but I can’t seem to find much evidence that it is actually happening.
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > STL, do you have documentation or references I can > look at that describes how GLD is double-lending > its gold deposits? I agree that this could be a > problem, but I can’t seem to find much evidence > that it is actually happening. If I remember, I’ll try to spend some time this evening gathering up some reading material. Obviously there’s nothing official, but there’s some compelling evidence of shady transactions going on. Anyone that’s really interested in gold and silver, and I mean people that really want to dive into the bizarre world of precious metals, need to read Zero Hedge and HarveyOrgan daily. HO focuses exclusively on gold and silver so you’ll find more there, but it’s way more technical than ZH (and that’s saying something).
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I don’t really buy that you are exposed to fiat > just because in order to redeem your ETF shares, > you have to take USD for them. It’s true in a > literal sense, but as long as things aren’t > inflating 20% per day, one can hold fiat for the > short time in between trades without being exposed > to fiat currencies in a meaningful way. > What do you think a collapse is going to look like? There WILL be 20% moves in prices if the hyperinfation/USD collapse scenario occurs, in which case, your ETF account might show a value of $1M USD, but when you cash out your PA, that money will be worthless. It should be noted that these collapses occur in a matter of hours, so to think you could trade in and out and not have exposure doesn’t make sense. Again, this is the extreme, tail risk scenario that we are talking about. In the meantime, the USD is not going anywhere and you may make a killing in gold and silver ETF’s, but at the end of the day, you are still exposed to the USD when you own any of these or similar instruments. As for the milk, I’ll be paying for my goods in junk silver, if it hasn’t been confiscated by the Federal Reserve.
equity_analyst Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What do you think a collapse is going to look > like? > > There WILL be 20% moves in prices if the > hyperinfation/USD collapse scenario occurs, in > which case, your ETF account might show a value of > $1M USD, but when you cash out your PA, that money > will be worthless. > > It should be noted that these collapses occur in a > matter of hours, so to think you could trade in > and out and not have exposure doesn’t make sense. > > Again, this is the extreme, tail risk scenario > that we are talking about. > > In the meantime, the USD is not going anywhere and > you may make a killing in gold and silver ETF’s, > but at the end of the day, you are still exposed > to the USD when you own any of these or similar > instruments. > > As for the milk, I’ll be paying for my goods in > junk silver, if it hasn’t been confiscated by the > Federal Reserve. Spoken like only a true gold bug could. 
Good luck to you on the other side of Armageddon sir. I am sure your gold bars and silver nuggets will be a comfort. Of course there might be some pesky problems with brigands attempting to steal your hoards of gold and silver - or then again they might not care about it and focus on things that can actually do things, like gunpowder, farmland, liquor, etc. Also might want to look into zombie fortifications and survival bunkers while you are at it. http://www.move.com/trends/end-of-the-world-real-estate-survival-bunker-chic/
I don’t think there will really be a collapse. I just think the USD will sink steadily downward for a long time, with occasional punctuated drops and rises, but not a real collapse. It will bottom when the US labor force is cheap enough that it is globally competitive again. Perhaps we differ in that you are holding physical for the tail risk of collapse, and I’m just holding it for the macro trend of a slow but steady USD decline. In which case we are both doing the right thing for our expected scenarios.
Given the future collapse of all traditional stores of value (fiat or otherwise) I have persuaded my employer to pay me in Krav Maga classes, crossbows and ninja stars (bullets are too unreliable). I will be laughing in a couple years when you guys are all holding fiat confetti and blunt, shiny metals.
Isn’t there supposed to be another Rapture in October? That would be highly deflationary, unless it’s only the meek that get raptured. But aren’t the meek supposed to inherit the Earth?? Now I’m confused.
Maybe they can’t inherit the Earth, but there are 19 million vacant homes in the US they could choose from.
equity_analyst Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > The balls out move is to liquidate the 401k > account, pay the taxes and penalty, and get out of > the dollar entirely. I know somebody who did just this…He did it in the state of CA which taxes retirement accounts on the back end (like the fed) and basically lost almost half the account to taxes so he could hold physical gold. It wasn’t a small account either.
I may convert my USD to CHF.
@ bchad Thanks for mentioning HarveyOrgan. I never heard of it before, and just read through a bunch. Looks good. – This thread has led me to say “screw gld and slv”. It’s physical from now on only.
CardShark Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > @ bchad > Thanks for mentioning HarveyOrgan. I never heard > of it before, and just read through a bunch. Looks > good. > > – > > This thread has led me to say “screw gld and slv”. > It’s physical from now on only. You’re welcome.