LEVEL 2 MPS ordeal (re-taker or level 3 candidates)

CFA Level II
#41

Lammy, you just proved my point, the 76% L3 pass rate was the year after the jump in L2 pass rate from 38% to 56%

Evident it was logjam clearing from the prior year’s L2 logjam clearing.

#42

One time clearing implies it’s a pollicy… documented or not, to clear a logjam. Who’s not to say it’s not also done on a smaller scale, within a few %, after the pass rates normalized?

#43

It seems as if you’re grasping at straws- you have (almost) no data to support these ideas…So, how does your argument support the other conspiracy theorists when they say the CFAI does it to prolong a revenue stream? Surely, your method won’t prolong the revenue stream, yet you’re trying to prove the same point that the Institute meddles with the pass rate.

They [CFAI] say passing is based on a minimum competency. A huge jump as you mentioned in would most certainly skirt the competency requirement if the Institute was was messing with the pass rate in such an arbitrary manner. In any case, I was a little bored so I did a brief google search (despite what I said about not caring, but you’ve only responded with conjecture)-- it’s amazing what you can find. In 2005, the level 2 pass rate jumped to 56% from 32% in 2004. You claim this is a clear indication of some back room hocus pocus at the Institute, and you’ve not really addressed any of the fair points I’ve made that would be reasonable to investigate before concluding your study. So, I asked about changes to the CFA program in any manner for this time period. According to 300 hours, there was a significant change in the exam formats for Level 2 in 2005. Starting in 2001, Levels 2 and 3 were half item set and half essay questions. In 2005, Level 2 began testing exclusively in the multiple choice format. Now, depending when this change was announced, candidates may have changed their studying. Maybe they studied harder because they assumed a complete MC test would be harder than a test with essays. Maybe the candidates prepared hard enough to handle the partial essay-format, and slammed through the easier, all MC exam…maybe the Institute was more lenient in the standard setting process this year to adjust for any hiccups that might’ve been caused in the new format. Doesn’t at least one of these reasons, now coupled with a significant change in the testing format, seem a little more rational and more likely than the mysterious, cloak-and-dagger mumbo jumbo you suggest is occurring? Also, if you believe them to be subjectively manipulating the pass rate and deceiving us, why haven’t you spoken up, and why are you in the program still? I know I wouldn’t want to be subject to the unscrupulous people deciding my “fate”…

#44

Let’s not forget that 6 questions is 5%… My guess is that MPS is “around 65%”… the difference of a few questions is going to kill thousands of candidates…

#45

You fail to recognize keeping a candidate in the program longer creates more revenue that failing people multiple times at L2 who then quit-- assuming a candidate retries a max of two attempts after a fail:

(1) Candidate passes L1 after 2x, fails L2 3x, and quits = 5x enrollement fee

(2) versus candidate that passes L1 after 2x, passes L2 after 2x, passes L3 after 2x = 6x enrollement fee

So clearing a huge L2 logjam occationally as they did in '05 or incrementally clearing a small % more in a certain year actually increases revenue.

#46

It’s interesting that you’re ignoring some important facts and refusing to look at them with an open mind.

I completely recognize your master plan to increase revenues, but I think it’s quite foolish and unfounded. 1) your assumption of two attempts needs data to support it-- go find the average number of failures before a candidate quits-- I don’t have that info on hand… 2)where is the evidence of your logjam in '05 (percentages probably don’t give you enough evidence here, absolute numbers would better support you). A logjam that would fit with your theory is one where the jammed candidates are those that have been stuck and are about to quit. This would imply the CFA Institue might need to falsify passes for some of these candidates who are still not competent (to pass them before they quit and stop paying). This doesn’t seem likely… 3) Is there a reason why you’re selectively ignoring the evidence that the exam significantly changed in that same year? 4) Also, why would the Institute need to bump the L3 pass rate the following year-- why not do it concurrently in '05 to preemptively make room for the extra LII passers? Again, this stuff doesn’t appear likely. You like conspiracy theories, in spite of known facts. Again, if you really think they’re secretly manipulating the pass rates and no one is blowing the whistle, why do you continue in the program?

#47

Remember you still need to pay the CFA membership fee once you have earned your charter!

#48

I took Level 2 in 2014. I thought the test was very difficult and afterwards I was about 60% sure I failed. Ultimately, I ended up passing with results similar to what I was scoring in mocks although I don’t remember exactly what I got, I know it was pretty good. If you’re interested you can search the forums for my score matrix.

I guess my point is: how I felt afterwards didn’t matter, my preparation pulled through when it counted.

#49

Thank you for those kinds words! Why did you think you failed?

#50

So what were you scoring on mocks? 65%+?

#51

I was scoring 65-73 in mocks. I probably felt like I failed because I tend to harp on the questions I don’t know. For example, if I struggled with 20-25 questions for three hours, while completing the other 100 questions easily, I’m more likely to remember how difficult those questions were.

Good luck guys (girls), less than two weeks until you’ll know.

#52

I heard about the MPS would be 67.5% this year. It seems very high…

#53

From what authority did you hear that?

#54

Its going to be 79/120! So if you were getting about this or over on your mocks, you passed! Lets go party this weekend.

I heard from an instructor the the MPS usually hovers around 63 to 65.

#55

No instructor can possibly know that. CFA Institute doesn’t release that information.

#56

Have you ever looked into 300 hours’ data? They seem to get enough raw data and their process seems sound enough to get a rough idea of MPS

#57

I looked at the limited explanation of their methodology (unless there was more on their site that I missed). Can you explain to me why the 40/60/80 assumption is more reasonable than 33/60/75 or 33/60/85? They certainly didn’t do that…Yes, they said it could be adjusted, but they didn’t justify a core assumption.

I also didn’t notice on their website (again, maybe I missed it), but they didn’t mention too much about model validation. In other words, nowhere do they mention that they check if the pass rate based on their MPS aligns with the Institute’s actual pass rate. This wouldn’t be hard to do, at all, and it’s really important to do when you’re trying to show what you’ve done could be worth something.

#58

Y’all MPSing …just wait the g*****n 4 days!

#59

^ At this point, I’m with this guy. Not that I don’t see value in the argument, but I’m not going to argue about the budget deficit (and aggregate debt) in a decade when a massive asteroid is going to wipe us off the map next week. I’m going to try to survive that first.

#60

Part of the intention of my post is to hopefully cause the whole MPS garbage to cool down for a while. People act as if 300 Hours has insider information regarding the MPS–they don’t. Anything anyone comes up with is a low resolution “answer” (guess) to the MPS figure… As you and others have said, it’s not even a week away; just wait until next week. Even if you knew the MPS, it wouldn’t change your outcome…