According to http://www.cfainstitute.org/utility/faq/Pages/index.aspx, there are 100,671 current Charterholders. Assume that some people that earned the charter have since let it lapse or they died. Assume that the actual number of people who have ever earned the CFA charter to be some multiplier of the 100,671 current Charterholders. No, I think 7.98% is the answer to “What % of candidates taking level 1 this year (regardless of how many times they’ve taken it in the past) will pass level 1, and pass levels 2&3 on the first try?”. I still think the percentage of charterholders that passed all 3 on the first try is much higher. Here’s my estimate: According to http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprogram/Documents/1963_current_candidate_exam_results.pdf, since 1963, level I has been taken 900,776 times. Some of those are people taking it for the first time and some are retakers. Using the pass rates since 1963, a given person taking level 1 exam that continues on to take all 3 exams has: 0.43 * 0.47 * 0.61 = 12% (using 1963-2011 average pass rates) 0.39 * 0.43 * 0.56 = 9% (using 2002-2011 average pass rates) So the answer to the question “What percentage of charterholders pass all 3 exams on their first try?” is: # people passing all 3 on first try ---------------------------------------- # of charterholders = # people taking the test for the first time * pass rate of all 3 in a row ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # current charterholders + # non-current charterholders = # total level 1 tests given/average times level 1 taken per person * pass rate of all 3 in a row ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # current charterholders + # non-current charterholders I think most pessimistic estimate would assume last 10 year pass rates, people take level 1 on average twice, inactive charterholders number as many as active, you get: 900776 level 1 tests taken/2 times per person = 450388 people have ever taken level 1 100671 active + same inactive = 201342 people have ever been charterholders 450388 people * 9% pass all 3 on first attempt = 40535 people have ever passed all 3 on their first attempt 40535/201342 = estimate of 20% of charterholders passed all 3 exams on their first try What I think is more realistic assumptions assume all history pass rates, people take level 1 on average 1.5 times, inactive charterholders number as many as active: 900776 level 1 tests taken/1.5 times per person = 600517 people have ever taken level 1 100671 active + same inactive = 201342 people have ever been charterholders 600517 people * 9% pass all 3 on first attempt = 54047 people have ever passed all 3 on their first attempt 54047/201342 = estimate of 27% of charterholders passed all 3 exams on their first try
My post got kind of garbled, but the estimates I gave were between 20-27% of charterholders passed all 3 exams on their first try.
http://www.cfp.net/media/survey.asp?id=9
Just food for thought. Not suggesting CFP is more rigorous or less at all. For the record, I never did that exam.
With that said, it is interesting to note that the first time pass rate has been higher than the overall pass rates consistently.
100%.
However my hypothesis test rejected the null given that my sample size was only 1.
What I really want to know is: What % of those that passed Level 1 in December then passed Level 2 in June because to me this is mission (nearly) impossible - only 4 months of study for L2 is not enough.
good job iron43, I only know 1 other person that has accomplished that out of the roughly 10 who have tried.
this is what i really want to know also… amazing!