Michael Burry

I agree with your concerns about microcaps. The lack of obvious catalysts is what makes me hesitant to buy more micros/pink sheets. (RSKIA has a near 4% dividend and small buybacks, and DJCO has seen a lot of investment growth that I think will generate interest among investors). Indeed, some of these micros just hold cash and do nothing which would be very frustrating if I was an investor.

I’m mainly interested in them for 2 reaons 1) it is an inefficient and murky corner, (pretty much nobody of note can invest in a stock with a Mcap<15M). 2) I think it is good practice to start off with tiny firms and “graduate” to larger ones as I get better at investing. It seems to me that even firms as small as 300M+ are very well known to the investing community and I would have no “edge” analyzing them…could be wrong though.

Right but small cap does not equal microcap (which is inclusive within the small cap category but is a different animal). Microcaps are often basically private companies. It’s true that they are under followed, but they are likely so under followed that they will stay mispriced indefinitely, and you often have unfriendly management to boot.

The product / industry is often knowable with some work. The problem is who is running it and what are they doing with your money? And what mechanism exists to create or unlock value? A lot of microcaps exist because nothing has killed them off yet, not because they are good companies.

You have a company like RICK, one of the largest strip club chains in the country, that is very cheap on free cash flow (it’s all in ones but don’t worry, they have a counting machine in the back!). But then you take a hard look at it and you have to ask, what possible reason is there for a $90mm revenue strip club chain to own a jet? Well, obviously to have crazy stripper parties on the jet! Is the stock going go up over time? Yeah, probably, but it’s clearly not without substantial risk.

I met mgmt a while ago and the choicest quote from the meeting was, “We’re not competitive in Houston because we don’t offer VIP room prostitution in our clubs as our competitors do (illegally).” Yeah, supposedly, but is that going to blow the stock up one day?

Big companies do all kinds of illegal stuff too but their size gives them margin of safety to survive adverse events.

You can definitely get an edge on $300mm stocks, no question. A lot of firms can’t even invest in stocks with sub-500 market caps.

what is this VIP room? any more details?

No personal experience, but research suggests that’s where you go to bang a hooker-stripper on a well used but otherwise nice looking couch.

is this normal? what are the the qualifications?

Fairly normal I gathered providing you have enough liquidity. I read there was a huge bust in one of these clubs about 4 years ago in a club that was half a mile from where I grew up (great neighborhood, you should have been there). The owner was nailed on RICO charges among other things.

Yeah, oftentimes and especially at larger clubs in Vegas, once you’ve chatted it up with the stripper long enough and she offers you some type of service, you can inquire about some of her ancillary offerings. At that point, if you have established some rapport or just show a willingness to pay, she might invite you to a back room. This room is actually larger than you might imagine and classy in appearance, and out of plain sight from the normal patrons. That’s where she’ll try to earn some “extra credit.”

Of course, this isn’t from my personal experience either – only word of mouth from a “friend”

I’m waiting for bchadwick to chime in with surprisingly suspicious amount of knowledge on this topic.

I’m all for classy babes in classy settings…unfortunately my money is tied up in asset allocation…

Relevant: The most interesting Bchad in the world (I made this a while back for another thread). Expecting him to waltz in here and drop knowledge on us at any moment.

Also, more relevant to the thread, I work with microcaps ($50mm-$1B), and my limited experience over the past 2 years echos Bromions. Yes, there are stocks in this space that trade at some ridiculous valuations, but plenty of them damned well deserve it. Valuation metrics that might be a “screaming buy” for a well-established mid- or large-cap company often merely put a micro-cap stock into the range of “Hey, this is starting to get interesting.”

supersad, do you watch the Kim Kardashian show?

Can’t tell if seriously asking…or…kidding.

Anyway, no, I don’t watch it. I don’t actually watch any TV - my g/f and I moved in together and neither of us brought a TV, and we’re in no rush to buy one. I’ve gotta say, given the utter shit that appears to qualify as programming busy schedules that we have, it’s not so bad to go without. Stuff I want to watch, I’ll generally watch on Hulu or Netflix, or if I really like a show, buy the DVDs.

ssf, why dont you post your ideas eh? You’re at a small cap value shop right?

Probably a mix of factors.

Work ideas, obviously, I won’t discuss because of ethics reasons, but also because we’re generally a pretty secretive shop - we publish our letters to investors and detail a few of our ideas in there, but that’s the extent of our disclosure, usually. We’re not the kind of firm that chats with other analysts at conferences and does the whole, “Whattareyalikin’thesedays?” conversation.

Personal portfolio ideas, I don’t discuss mainly for two reasons. It’s probably about 80% selfishness, 20% looking-like-an-idiot avoidance.

80% Selfishness: When I find ideas for my personal portfolio, I treat it like srs bsns and I am not interested in sharing the love, so to speak. I look at stuff that typically takes me somewhere between a few weeks and a few months to decide to buy. I try to do as much due diligence as possible, commensurate with the amount of money I’m [considering] putting into the idea. Most people, including investment professionals (working with their personal portfolios), seem to do more research on what kind of air conditioner they should buy ($200?) than on a company that they might put $500 or $1,000 into. That has always seemed bizarro to me. If I’m going to put $1,000 plus into a stock of my own money, I figure I should really do my homework, and that means going through a serious research effort as if the stock was one we were considering for the ‘real’ portfolio at work.

20% looking-like-an-idiot avoidance: A certain amount of trades will always go bad. Just like in poker, even if you play nothing but Ace-ace as your starting hand, you’ll still lose a percentage of hands where things just don’t happen to go your way. The problem is, if I share ideas [selectively] with people, my track record is no longer based on the actual returns that my portfolio gets. Instead, my portfolio is now (as far as other people are concerned) equal weight whatever-stocks-they’ve-heard-me-mention. So if I’ve mentioned 3 stinkers in a row on AF as “buys” and they all drop 30%+, even if they’re only a combined 5% of my portfolio, as far as AF is concerned, I’m basically an idiot. So it’s easier to just not name names.

With that said, I love talking about investment ideas and valuation concepts. Even if no one ends up putting any money into the ideas discussed, it’s a great thing to do. Debating how you’d approach valuing a business, what kind of data you’d try to get, and how you’d go about making educated guesses about the company’s future - these things are always worth doing for the sake of learning.

I use to avoid telling ppl my ideas too…but then i realize 99% of time nobody cares and as a matter of fact, they will find a reason NOT to agree with me…but that is just me cause i’m a nobody…if you’re afraid to look dumb, you’re in the wrong businesses in my opinion…everybody looks dumb one day or anther…

I’m guessing you’re not a sports fan.

At least you can get the Charlie Rose show on his site.