but that was last year my friend - recallability trap if you will…MPS could be any number depending on the performance of the top50% (assuming they wont change the pass rates)
It should be close to 60%, CFAI have mentioned for some questions, everyone gets a point if question is deemed unanswerable or if there could be 2 possible answers, either way i think scores do get adjusted upward which will warrant mps to be in same historical range.
I think who scores above 70% in topic tests and above 60% in past AM consistently, should pass.
I feel the candidate resources percentile rank might be a good indicator of passing/ failing.
I was at 75% topical and 74% percentile. Except for one past AM, all past AMs I scored above 65%. And I have no confidence of passing. So much as I would like to… I don’t buy your point.
I don’t think the percentile rank is a good indicator as everyone can reset it and do it until they get a good score to build up their confidence. On the other hand you can also have others who don’t want to bother doing the calculations for some of the questions because they know them already and only want to practice theory. I was answering about 68% correct on practice questions but was on the 44th percentile.
I do feel that the results will be right skewed distributed ( the mean to the right of the median). However, with the number of candidates who fail in the test are relatively equal to the number of candidates who pass this may suggest that the MPS is below the mean.
If you compare your performance with others. You can use schweser mocks for example (it provides such statistics) try to use a either the live mock or ( a test completed before the exam by few days assuming it captured your knowledge more accurately) if you score below the average by max 5% you should be ok.
Strong anchoring bias!
CFA tutors in China are always confident that a 50% in AM and 70% in PM will definitely make a pass and most exam takers set likewise targets.
But to be honest: for me I guess I scored a 60% in AM and roughly 38/60 in PM.
I might be subject to overconfidence bias given that I took L3 for the first time this year and that I had never practiced any timed AM mocks but still gave relatively reasonable answers on the real AM leaving 4/180 pts totally blank.
I have a strong feeling it will be around 58-59%. Last year it was 60% and I confirmed it by doing a weighted average weighting of the 50th percentile scores in each bracket (I was very close to the MPS and my average was about 58%). last year the 50th percentile was around 48-50% of marks on morning and 68-69% on afternoon exam. This year it seems everyone is agreeing the afternoon was much harder then normal. People are also agreeing the morning wasn’t super hard, but I doubt the average decline in the PM marks will be offset by an average increase in the morning session marks. I think the MPS will be lower, but I also think they will lower the Pass rate slightly as well from 56% last year to maybe 53-54% this year.
I would second this. Lower MPS and a lower pass rate due to a more difficult exam.
How can both happen ? Either it is low MPS and higher pass rate or higher MPS and lower passing rate.
can happen if we instead assume a different (or even strange) distribution … huh
Guys, just chill and wait for the result in late August. Nothing we can do now but just endure.
The CFAI as with GARP uses angoff method where the 100%tile are considered tail and the next tier down 90%tilers marks are taken to find the population distribution by taking an x %. Mostly the x=70%. I doubt that they will make an exception to that for the 2019 exam. Makes no sense doing that. That said if CFAI decides to not stick to the ubiquitous x=70 and take a value of 65 then your theory of low MPS with lower passing rate may happen. Don’t know everything looks like a curve ball now and I see everything blue !
That’s strange. I had 76 and it said 58th percentile
I believe they consider skewness and kurtosis before coming up with MPS as well - after all they got to believe what they are asking candidates to learn haha